MILANO – 11.10 am It is the day of US inflation, which analysts expect at 7% for the month of December and therefore at the maximum since 1982. The estimate of the Unicredit economists is that the “core” figure, the one net of volatile elements, rises from 4.9 to 5.3% per year, while the monthly figure would be 0.4% with a boost coming from rents and the car market. On gasoline and travel costs, slight drops and the weight of the Omicron variant should have been felt. The expectation is that the peak in annual change will come above 7% in January, and then slow down. These numbers, however, give substance to the accelerated monetary tightening of the Fed, the one that Governor Powell spoke about on the occasion of the inauguration of his second term. The central banker has sanctioned the end of the period of exceptional stimuli and indeed reiterated that Washington will use all the tools necessary to deal with this flare-up in prices which by now has very little temporary and indeed risks being a brake on the maximum employment objectives. of the first economy in the world. Markets now expect multiple rate hikes over the course of 2022 and, starting in spring-summer, a decline in the Fed balance sheet, inflated by years of bond purchases.
The market initially reacted badly to Powell’s words, but then confidence in the Fed’s ability to drive this sea change for the world of finance was triggered. Last night, in fact, Wall Street’s S & P500 closed positively (+ 0.9%), interrupting a streak of five declines and the Nasdaq did even better (+ 1.4%). The European stock exchanges are moving in rhythm. In the first exchanges a London the Ftse 100 advances by 0.78%, a Frankfurt the Dax rose by 0.56% to 16,040.44 points, a Paris the Cac 40 gains 0.62% at 7,235.47 points. TO Milano the Ftse Mib marks + 0.39%. Steve Sosnick, Interactive Brokers chief strategist, commenting with Bloomberg praised Powell: “On the one hand he rightly pointed the finger at cutting the budget and tackling inflation, but he was very careful to balance” these aspects “with a general tone that ultimately seemed to say : ‘Yes, I am attentive to the reaction that the market will have on all our plans’ “. Today, in the Italian evening, the Fed’s Beige book will also be released, which could contain other elements on the subject.
Already in the morning there was a surge in Asian stock exchanges, after the comeback of Wall Street: the Nikkei 225 index of the stock market Tokyo he closed the session with a 1.92% rally to 28,765.66 points. Hong Kong did very well, with a shot of the Hang Seng of + 2.79% and Shanghai + 0.84%. Of note, in China, the slowdown in consumer prices which marked an annual increase of 1.5% in December, a level lower than the + 1.8% expected by the consensus. In November, the rise was 2.3%. On a monthly basis, inflation fell by 0.3%, mainly due to the drop in the price of food (-1.2% from + 1.6% in November). On the other hand, as regards producer prices, the index calculated by the Chinese national statistics office recorded an increase of 10.3% on an annual basis (+ 12.9% in November). On a monthly basis, producer prices fell by 1.2 percent. In the Eurozone, industrial production grew by 2.3% in November (and by 2.5% in the EU), compared to October 2021, according to estimates by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In October 2021, industrial production had decreased by 1.3% in the euro area and by 0.8% in the EU.
On the currency market, theeuro opens slightly above $ 1.13. The single currency changes hands at 1.1372 and is up against the yen at 131.18. Dollar yen at 115.33.
Finally, among the raw materials, the prices of Petroleum they travel slightly higher on the Asian markets. Crude oil stabilized after strong gains in the previous session: WTI crude futures advanced 0.25% to $ 81.42 a barrel while Brent futures rose 0.08% to $ 83.79 a barrel. The price oforo with immediate delivery retracted slightly after yesterday’s rises: spot prices of the metal lost 0.2% to 1,818 dollars an ounce after yesterday exceeding 1,823 dollars.
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