MILANO – The bugbear ofinflation continues to weigh on the financial markets, which see a very important double test approaching to concretely understand whether the fears of an out-of-control price run are real or only presumed.
Today, in fact, the data of Germany and the United States are published in rapid succession, two economies where the price increases scare the most, in particular German consumers and the Federal Reserve, which must keep the economy at bay from possible overheating. In the German case, the data is in line with expectations: German inflation in September was + 4.1% on an annual basis, in line with forecasts. On a monthly basis the figure is unchanged. Harmonized inflation, on the other hand, marks an increase of 0.3% monthly and always 4.1% trend.
Some American governors have recently come out again in favor of accelerated stimulus tapering – a shutdown of the taps that pumped money into the economy – and some further clues are expected from the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the American Central Bank, also scheduled for the same day. The latest institution to warn of risks was the IMF, which on the occasion of the update of its report on the world economy told central banks to be very vigilant on the trend of inflation, which on the one hand is a threat to recovery but on the other hand the markets risk sudden shock if the monetary support were to break too abruptly.
Among these arguments, Western trade futures are cautious. The looming start of the season of quarterly discourages some investors from placing big bets: company accounts will be an opportunity to see how much the expensive commodity is affecting margins.
Asian stock exchanges traveled mixed after Wall Street’s lower close. The Nikkei index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange closed down 0.32%, while the Chinese stock exchanges were traveling mixed: the better-than-expected trade data (surplus at 66 billion, + 28% of exports) helped to offset concerns about a slowdown in growth. The crisis of the colossus Evergrande put the Chinese real estate sector in the spotlight again. Shanghai earns 0.6%. Positive too Alone which rises by 0.93%. The stock market of Hong Kong it was closed in the morning due to a typhoon, contributing to the concerns of market participants.
Among the raw materials, the prices of the Petroleum what a slight dip in Asian markets amid fears that soaring coal and natural gas prices in China, India and Europe could fuel inflation and slow global growth, reducing demand for crude oil. Futures on WTI crude oil fell by 0.10% to 80.56 dollars a barrel while those on Brent crude fell by 0.06% to 83.35 dollars a barrel. Oro a slight increase on the commodities markets: the precious metal with delivery in December is trading at 1,763 dollars an ounce with an increase of 0.21%.
As for the other macro data of the day, the Great Britain saw its business recover with growth of 0.4% in August thanks to the lifting of all health restrictions linked to the pandemic. However, GDP is still 0.8% lower than in the previous period of the pandemic, the Office for National Statistics (Ons) reported. The July data is revised to a 0.1% contraction from an initially published 0.1% increase. On an annual basis, the GDP rose by 6.9% against the + 6.7% expected.
Stable opening at 106 basis points for the spread between BTP and German Bund, with the yield of the Italian ten-year at 0.91% on the secondary market. Slightly upward start of the session, finally, due to theeuro above $ 1.15: it rises 0.18% to $ 1.1551, from $ 1.1522 recorded yesterday, its lowest in nearly 15 months.
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