The supply and demand pattern is expected to tighten, and it is expected that the aluminum price will be strong and fluctuated in the short term.

Source: Jintou.com

According to the data of the business society, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market on September 15 was 18,813.33 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.89%. Compared with the average market price at the beginning of the month (9.1), the market price was 18,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.47%. Compared with the market average of the same period last year The price was 22,240 yuan/ton, down 15.41%.

Taking the peak in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots is 24,240 yuan / ton, and the recent deviation from the peak has dropped by 22.39%. Starting from the recent recovery (July 14, 2022), the average market price of aluminum ingots is 17,450 yuan / ton, and the recent recovery has increased by 7.81%.

Fundamentals Overview

Domestic supply side: Yunnan has notified about load reduction. The affected production capacity is currently about 500,000 tons, or it may expand to 1.5 million tons. The supply and demand pattern is expected to tighten. The production capacity in Sichuan and Chongqing is recovering, and it will take time for the production capacity to fully recover. The domestic supply pattern is expected to be tight and uplift.

On the domestic demand side, downstream consumption has slightly improved month-on-month, but it is not as good as the same period last year; as of the 15th, social inventory in mainstream domestic areas was around 685,000 tons, and has recently risen slightly month-on-month.

In terms of news, the production capacity of aluminum plants with high energy consumption caused by the European energy crisis has been significantly affected. The recent news of new production cuts has brought aluminum supply concerns to the market.

Market outlook is expected

The bearish expectations triggered by the previous macro pessimism gradually faded under the impact of the production cut news. In the short term, there will be support from the phased production reduction below the aluminum price. We will wait and see whether the actual demand in the downstream will turn warmer. It is expected that the aluminum price will fluctuate strongly in the short term.

(Article source: Business Club)

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