On Wednesday (December 7), the international gold price fluctuated within a narrow range, less than $7. Investors continued to judge how the Fed would adjust the pace of future interest rate hikes. Before the Fed policy meeting, the downside risk of gold is higher than the upside risk, and the lower support is still looking at $1,758.
At 14:54 Beijing time, spot gold rose 0.05% to $1,771.78 an ounce; the main COMEX gold futures contract rose 0.07% to $1,783.6 an ounce; the U.S. dollar index rose 0.20% to 105.775.
The market predicts that the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in December cutting the interest rate hike to 50 basis points is as high as nearly 80%. The day before the end of the meeting, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for November will be released, and inflation is expected to continue to fall in November.
Michael Langford, director of corporate consulting firm AirGuide, said: “The main factor affecting gold prices is the movement of the dollar. Next week’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting will determine the ultimate direction of this trend. Before the FOMC meeting, gold will be in the next few days. The downside risk outweighs the upside risk for the trading day.”
“Gold is still running below the $1,800 level and could fall further towards the $1,760 area before consolidating,” Edward Moya, senior analyst at OANDA, said in a note.
According to the latest data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, the open interest in the overnight COMEX gold futures market fell for the third consecutive day, this time by nearly 4,000 lots. Trading volume fell by about 58,300 lots, the third consecutive day of decline. The modest gains in gold prices came amid shrinking open interest and trading volume, suggesting no further gains for the metal in the ultra-short term. Occasional upside efforts remain capped at the $1,800/oz region for the time being.
On the daily chart, the price of gold started a callback ((C)) wave trend from US$1810, and the lower support looked at the 76.4% target at US$1763 and the 85.4% target at US$1758. The ((C)) wave is a sub-wave of the adjustment II wave that started at $1787.