The three major A-share indexes all fell by more than 1%, and more than 3,900 shares in the two cities fell. On the disk, the concept of East Numbers and West Calculations continued to strengthen, with multiple daily limits. In addition, cultivated diamonds,precious metalCivil explosion concept,energy metal、Photovoltaic equipmentOther sectors are also among the top gainers.Virtual digital human, NFT concept, corona drug, cloudgame, intellectual property and other sectors performed poorly, leading the market to decline. As of press time,Shanghai IndexIt fell 1.36% to 3443.15 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.62% to 13252.34 points;GEM refers toIt fell 1.61% to 2759.35 points.
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as GuoshengsecuritiesStatement,Affected by factors such as external market disturbances and pressure on domestic economic growth recently, the A-share market volume has not been able to be effectively enlarged, and the structural market characteristics under the stock game are obvious.the probability of small fluctuations in the short term is relatively large, and the trending investment opportunities still need to be continuously improved in terms of policy and capital.
From a mid- to long-term perspective,performanceThe fundamentals determined by the growth rate will inevitably bring about a return to the valuation of individual stocks with short-term fluctuations.Sectors in the direction of policy support such as technological innovation, energy revolution, and digital economy, before the “two sessions” will be held in March, ormain forceThe direction of the capital focus gameyou can pay attention to relatedthemeof fermentation.
The concept of “East Numbers and West Calculations” is currently showing strong performance, and the sentiment premium of the subject matter is very high, but the short-term hype of the sector is obvious. After two consecutive trading days, there is a high probability that it will face differentiation. It is advisable to select individual stocks, and do not blindly chase. Operationally,It is advisable to see more and move less, focus on low absorption, grasp the timing of the layout of traditional infrastructure, new energy, digital economy and other sectors, or be a good choice in the current market。
From a technical point of view, DongguansecuritiesIt is pointed out that the market fluctuated sideways on Monday, and the market’s profit-making effect was good. In particular, the concept of “East Numbers and West Calculations” continued to perform strongly, driving market sentiment. There was a slight net outflow of northbound funds, but the overall market remained resilient, and the market is expected to continue. The shock stabilizes the pattern,Pay attention to the release of energy and plate rotationit is recommended to pay attention to financial,food and drinkbuilding materials, building decoration, steel, TMT and other industries.
Macroscopically, HuaxinsecuritiesSaid that the outline of the Fed’s January meeting did not release more hawkish signals, but given the current geo-risk and inflationary pressures, it is not appropriate to underestimate the intensity of this round of Fed tightening; the European Central Bank is likely to raise interest rates this year and gradually move towardscurrencyThe direction of policy normalization, but the policy adjustment framework will not be determined too soon;The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has resumed, and the global risk aversion market has heated up. Follow-up attention should be paid to the results of the meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia and the United States。
It is worth mentioning that,Sinolink SecuritiesIt is believed that despite the divergence of China and the US economy and policies, the short-term trend of US stocks may still be an important external factor affecting the A-share market.The current core factors affecting U.S. stocks are gradually shifting from policy (the Fed to raise interest rates and shrink the balance sheet) and events (Russia-Ukraine conflict) to performance。
As far as the market outlook is concerned, will A-shares have independent market conditions?Sinolink Securitiesfurther analysis,After reviewing the correlation between China and the US stock market since 2010, most of the time the correlation coefficient between the two is positive, that is, the two markets show a strong trend of rising and falling at the same time.. Historically, the stages of economic and policy differentiation between China and the United States mainly occurred from the end of 2014 to the end of 2015 and from the second quarter of 2018 to the end of 2018. However, there was no obvious differentiation between A shares and U.S. stocks in these two time periods, except that the A-share bull market in the first half of 2015 rose more than U.S. stocks.
The agency also noted that,From the defensive to offensive stage, A shares may usher in a small and medium-sized growth period. Under the defensive thinking, low valuation is the best choice, but in the future, under the background of “no worries on the inside, no trouble on the outside”, when A shares are turned from defense to offense, it is difficult for low-valued sectors to have relative returns, even for infrastructure with stable growth attributes. plate. Because from a historical perspective, the relative income of the infrastructure sector is not closely related to the industry ROE, not to mention that the increase in the growth rate of infrastructure investment is difficult to reflect on the ROE of listed companies. The historically large excess returns of the infrastructure sector mainly come from thematic opportunities, such as the Belt and Road Initiative in 2014-2015. The inflection point of the growth curve of the new energy sector is still difficult to see in the short term, and the medium and long-term logic is difficult to falsify. The current sector under the negative feedback of funds will continue to adjust after the uncertainty of performance has landed or ushered in a certain recovery.
in addition,Shanxi SecuritiesIt is mentioned that the current A-share market volume is slightly insufficient, the style is still unclear, and the impact of news on the performance of the sector is more obvious and frequent. We believe that this is mainly because investors have large differences in their judgments on future market trends.Under the background of the current overseas uncertainty and risks continuing to rise, the domestic continued to increase the easing and stable growth, and to hedge against the downward pressure on the economy, we suggest that in the short term, we should pay attention to the subsidence of the epidemic disturbance and some low-valued sectors that are expected to be repaired in the adjustment of stable growth. Focus on value blue-chip targets with better defensive capabilities in an economic downturn。
In terms of operation strategy, the agency further analyzes, (1)Pay attention to the national defense and military sector.At present, the probability of further deterioration of geopolitical conflicts is relatively limited, but in the context of the game between great powers, it may continue to ferment in the short term. As far as my country is concerned, military spending is in theGDPThe proportion of the military industry is relatively low. The construction of a strong military during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period is expected to drive the prosperity of sub-sectors such as core components, new information equipment, and new materials. Excellent configuration cost-effective, it is recommended to pay attention.
(2)Pay attention to the concept of digital economy. The launch of the “East Number and West Calculation” project may accelerate the implementation of the digital economy strategy. Under the guidance of medium and long-term trend opportunities, it is recommended to combine the macro direction of cross-cycle adjustment in the short term, focusing on new infrastructure, 5G technology, industrial Internet, Big data and other sectors.
(3)Pay attention to the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector. The livestock and poultry breeding sector has undergone a major adjustment this week. We re-emphasize that the pig industry sector may gradually enter an upward period. It is recommended to lengthen the allocation cycle and continue to pay attention to the marginal changes in production capacity and intervene in a timely manner.
(4)Follow the real estate sector. The transformation of the real estate industry is a long-term trend, but the excessive pessimism of market sentiment in the short term is also not conducive to the smooth operation of the macro economy. We believe that the “city-specific policies” in the cross-cycle adjustment may be the main direction of adjustment for the real estate industry. In the short term, policy aspects It is expected to accelerate the protection of market sentiment and promote the expected restoration, and the current valuation level of the real estate sector is at a historically low level, it is recommended to pay attention.
in addition,Orient SecuritiesSaid that the plight of the post-epidemic era will reverse the performance of industries and companies and will continue. Mainly in three aspects:
1、Reversal industries under low expectations: Under the policy of stable growth, the real estate, real estate chain and infrastructure chain have the expectation of favorable policy margins throughout the year. At the same time, the epidemic-damaged sectors such as catering, tourism, and transportation have not recovered to the level before the epidemic, but their prosperity has improved to varying degrees.
2、Emergence of new themes: The digital economy will be an important direction this year, and policies such as the “14th Five-Year Plan for Digital Economy Development” and “The 14th Five-Year Plan for Promoting National Government Informatization” are directly catalyzed; the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will performed.
3、Asset injection such as state-owned enterprise reform is expected: 2022 is the final year of the three-year reform of state-owned enterprises, and it is a year that needs to produce results.worthy of attention strategicallyreorganizationprofessional integration and relatedM&ABringing investment opportunities, focusing on the military sector with a low asset securitization rate.
at the same time,undervaluedBankplateAlso worth paying attention to.my countrycreditThe demand for financing is relatively prosperous. The quality of the underlying assets after the two-year epidemic will rebound, and the credit risk will continue to improve.BankThe industry has formed a positive benefit.
(Article Source:Eastern FortuneResearch center)