The three major A-share indexes collectively closed down today, of whichShanghai IndexFell 1.25% to close at 3546.94 points;Shenzhen Component IndexDown 1.62%;Growth Enterprise Market IndexA decrease of 1.81%. The turnover of the two cities was less than one trillion, the industry sectors generally fell, and the medical and beauty concept stocks bucked the market and strengthened.
Market outlook analysis
Institutional research and judgment on the fourth quarter market focus on valuation advantage sectors
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, institutions generally believe that the marginal improvement in economic fundamentals will provide support for the end of the A-share market. From the configuration point of view, institutions pay attention to some sectors with fully revised valuations, and are generally optimistic about popular sectors such as consumption that have noticed early corrections.
Improved fundamentals provide support for the end of the year market
From the perspective of economic fundamentals, manyBrokerageResearch institutions expect the marginal improvement of the economy in the fourth quarter, and multiple positive changes are expected to emerge.
CITIC SecuritiesIt is believed that domestic macro-liquidity will continue to remain reasonable and abundant, and the effect of institutional adjustments at the beginning of the quarter will drive funds to shift to low value. The allocation value of sectors with low fundamental expectations and relative valuations is higher. First of all, the policy of ensuring supply and stable prices in the fourth quarter is more coordinated and consistent. It is expected that the trend of rapid rise in commodity prices will be under control, and the credit risk disposal of some developers will be implemented, and market sentiment is expected to improve significantly. Second, the mitigation of the impact of the epidemic has brought about a rise in spending willingness. It is expected that consumption will be significantly warmer in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter, special debt issuance will be accelerated, and new energy infrastructure will also work hard to jointly drive the marginal improvement of the macro economy in the fourth quarter. Finally, the current macro policy is more biased towards “inter-cyclical adjustment”, and the weight of stabilizing growth has increased.Haitong SecuritiesIt is also believed that multiple positive changes are taking place, one is that steady growth is underway; the other is that real estate credit risk concerns are expected to decline; and the third is that the external environment is expected to improve and risk appetite will increase.
China SecuritiesHead of the Securities Total Research Group, Chief MacroAnalystHuang Wentao, also chief analyst of fixed income, said that if there is no obvious disturbance from the epidemic, the compound economic growth rate in the fourth quarter of this year and 2022 will be better than that in the third quarter. From the perspective of demand structure, exports from the fourth quarter of this year to 2022 will gradually slow down due to weaker external demand.real estateInvestment has gradually bottomed out and stabilized, infrastructure investment will rebound slightly, manufacturing investment has entered a plateau period, and consumption is expected to return to the path of recovery.
In addition, Yuekai Securities believes that in the fourth quarter, A shares usually have a “calendar effect”, which means that funds will be deployed in traditional industries and will plan ahead for next year’s business outlook. The current three quarterly reports are still limited in clues, and the agency believes that the allocation should be balanced and structural opportunities should be laid out.
Guojin SecuritiesAccording to the analysis, entering the fourth quarter, the main contradictions in the A-share market will gradually change from the third quarterly report.PerformanceTowardscurrencyAnd credit policy transition. October is the month of intensive disclosure in the third quarter. The market focus will refocus on corporate profits. The performance of listed companies in the third quarter may begin to reflect economic pressure. In addition, in the third quarter, the prices of major upstream resource products whose supply was concentrated in the country continued to increase, which may have a certain impact on the gross profit and demand of mid- and downstream companies. As consumption growth is declining and investment growth is still relatively weak, it is not ruled out that the performance growth of listed companies in some industries is lower than expected. After the October quarterly reporting season, the market ushered in a months-long performance vacuum period. The main contradictions affecting the market will transition to the core factors affecting the valuation. Valuation switching and currency/credit policies may become the core factors affecting the market.
Consumption and other sectors with valuation advantages are favored
At present, some sectors whose valuations have been significantly revised have attracted attention from institutions.CITIC SecuritiesIt is believed that in the allocation direction, from the perspective of behavioral factors, investors are more divergent on the profit trend of A-shares next year, and the certainty of low value is higher, and the effect of position adjustment will also drive the market style to continue to switch to low value; from the industry In terms of choices, focus on sectors where fundamentals are expected to be at a low level and previous valuations have been fully revised.
For the large consumer sector that is still in a downturn,CICCThe research department said that the adjustment range of the consumer sector has been relatively large, and the sector may have reached a relatively low level.Haitong SecuritiesThe strategy team stated that the major consumer industries have fallen sharply this year. Calculated from the February high, the Shenwan Baijiu Index has fallen by more than 20% so far.Appliance industryIt fell by more than 25%, and Pharmaceutical Biology fell by 13%.With the implementation of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday consumption data and the consumption categoryfundAfter the return of style drift, big consumption in the fourth quarter may usher in a valuation restoration. Star Stone Investment also stated that it will explore investment targets in the areas of technology, consumption and cycle along the direction of economic recovery, such as optional consumption with strong post-cycle attributes. From a medium-term perspective, as residents’ income increases, residents’ consumer confidence will also rise, and consumer demand is expected to be continuously restored. However, under the impact of the epidemic, a large amount of offline consumption and supply has cleared, and incremental supply continues to be sluggish, and the concentration of offline service industries will accelerate in the future.
In addition, institutions have also paid great attention to the popular tracks of early-stage callbacks such as medicine and new energy. Jingling Investment believes that the share prices of leading companies in consumer medicine and other sub-industry have experienced a major correction, and their valuations have gradually entered a relatively reasonable range, and their attractiveness for long-term funds is increasing. In addition, the current trend of promoting economic structural transformation with the goal of reducing energy consumption and carbon neutrality is very clear. In particular, the establishment of an energy structure with new energy as the main body is the long-term optimistic direction of the agency.Southern FundDeputy General Manager and Chief Investment Officer (Equity) Shi Bo also believes that in sectors with relatively stable and substantial long-term returns such as the Internet, consumer, and pharmaceuticals, the stock prices of related companies have adjusted very sharply. Very good mid-to-long-term layout timing.
Caixin Securities expects that the market style will continue to rotate rapidly in the fourth quarter, and the division of sectors will also converge. Specifically, there is a strong demand for supplementary growth in the undervalued financial sector, especially benefiting from the reform of the capital market and the brokerage sector with active market transactions; in the fourth quarter, the marginal demand for exports and replenishment of inventories weakened, and the macroeconomic cross-cyclical control In the future, the countercyclical sector may show some performance; in addition, the pre-damaged sectors such as aviation, airport, hotel, catering, tourism, cinema, etc. are also expected to usher in valuation restoration. (Source: Economic Information Daily)
(Article Source:Oriental wealthResearch center)
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