The three major A-share indexes fluctuated slightly, as of the close of noon,Shanghai IndexRose 0.15%, Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.10%,Growth Enterprise Market IndexIncreased 0.42%. On the board, vocational education, industrial machine,Civil Aviation Airport, HIT battery,Precious metalsOther sectors led the gains, CRO, medical beauty, liquor, dairy, pork,Medical industryWait for the decline in the top.
Today’s news:
1. Bureau of Statistics: September CPI rose 0.7% year-on-year, PPI rose 10.7% year-on-year
2. Announcement of important central bank data! In September, the credit cooperatives “found the bottom” in the fourth quarter is expected to rebound at the same time, what is the impact?
3. 90 billion snapped up! The first batch of new releases after the official announcement of the Beijing Stock Exchange! 200,000 shots (with new strategy)
4. The 300 billion “windfall profit” track welcomes major benefits! How big is the impact of the first authorized legal sales in the United States?
5. China Mobile’s centralized procurement prices soared by 50%, and the optical fiber and cable industry ushered in great benefits
6. Vocational education needs “high-quality development”. Many listed companies have targeted this track
Just likeShanxi SecuritiesAs mentioned, the upstream sector of the part of the cycle on Wednesday was affected by the fall in raw material prices, and the decline was relatively large, and the relevant sectors were still overvalued.In addition, we continue our previous judgment that the continuous release of consumer demand will drive the service industry to continue to pick up, and downstream corporate profits will usher in a rebound. Investors can continue to pay attention to consumptionthemePlate.
In terms of market outlook,Shanxi SecuritiesFurther analysis, in the near futureThe style switch is on schedule, and the funds flow from the upstream theme of the cycle to the consumer theme. In addition, due to the weak performance of macroeconomic data and the index valuation is in a reasonable range, the market as a whole will continue to fluctuate in the future.
It is worth noting that Huaxin Securities believes that the wide credit is not as expected, and the core support for the current market rise comes from the environment of moderate liquidity.At present, there are problems with both on-market funds and macro liquidity, and the pressure of the fourth quarter economic downturn may be a test for A shares.ć
Dongguan Securities pointed out thatIt is expected that the short-term market is expected to gradually stabilize amidst repeated shocks, and pay attention to changes in sector rotation and changes in market volume.. It is recommended to pay attention to finance,food and drink, Medicine, electrical equipment, chemical industry, TMT and other industries.
On the macro front, Chuancai Securities said that since the beginning of this year, driven by demand on the one hand, and on the other hand by supply-side capacity constraints, and at the same time superimposed on global liquidity easing, the cyclical sector has seen a large increase in the early period.Although the profitability of the industry in the current cycle is at a high level, the recent macro data has performed poorly. At the same timeMidlandThe high probability of reducing the purchase of debt (Taper) before the end of the year will also have an impact on global liquidity.In this context, the market began to be cautious about cyclical sectorsć
ććHuatai SecuritiesIt is mentioned that with the weakening of investment, consumption and other indicators, and the high price of raw materials, corporate profits, especially the midstream manufacturing industry, are showing signs of weakening.Entering the fourth quarter, the importance of defense has increased, The domestic dual control policy for energy consumption continues to affect the allocation level, and overseas attention to the US fiscal policy, etc., the main investment clues are reflected in “diversified investment, balanced allocation, avoiding policy risks + selling pressure in areas with strong foreign pricing”.
The agency also pointed out that the demand for rebalancing styles continued in the fourth quarter, and the configuration value of the large market value style in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year may increase. Although it is early days for the market style to systematically switch to consumer finance, the layout on the left can be reduced. Take the risk. Overall,Facing the fourth quarter, it is very important to reduce investment return expectations and level the investment mentality. Transaction level,The increase in the previous period was not large,PerformanceThe release of low-value sectors that meet expectations or exceed expectations is defensive; RecentBankThe rebound of the real estate sector is forming a seesaw effect with the “cyclical ebb”.
In terms of operating strategy,Huatai SecuritiesIt further stated that it will continue to uphold the concept of āaccumulating small wins for big winsā, and the subsequent portfolio will maintain a balanced allocation of ideas. It will be deployed in technology manufacturing, cycle, finance, consumption and other sectors, and combined with the performance of listed companies in the three quarterly reports. The configuration is based on the main line of safety margin + prosperity, and the bottom-up product configuration level will strengthen the idea of āāselecting high-Alpha products.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that by continuing to focus on the industries encouraged and supported by policies, high-prosperity industries, and leading sub-fields with product bargaining power, funds will eventually “anchor” the performance of enterprises, and they are still optimistic about the relatively undervalued second-tier blue chips. Operationally, the structured market will continue for a long time, and the consumption camp will replace the cycle weight and become the new main line. The support under the market is effective, and the current position has a good risk-to-reward ratio. Industries that maintain a high boom still need to pay close attention. Military-civilian integration and high-end manufacturing are fully adjusted, and there is a high probability of regaining the upward trend. In addition, as the epidemic is cleared and the inflation rate rises, the consumer sector is expected to usher in a marginal improvement in prosperity, which is worth focusing on focus on.
(Article Source:Oriental wealthResearch center)
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