The three major A-share indexes oscillated today, and finally closed mixed.Shanghai IndexClosed slightly down 0.07%, to close at 3536.79 points;Shenzhen Component IndexIncreased by 0.12%, to close at 15011.35 points;Growth Enterprise Market IndexIncreased 0.41% to close at 3463.79 points. The turnover of the two cities fell below one trillion yuan, and today’s turnover was 966.7 billion yuan. The industry sector was mixed, with winemaking and lithium battery sectors leading the rise. Northbound funds bought 3.064 billion yuan in net today.
Regarding the market outlook, institutions have expressed their views.
Beijing Capital Securities believes that the overall stock market is volatile, and CSI 500 may have a structural opportunity.The economy is generally stable, liquidity is slightly loose, and the globalcurrencySlightly tightened. Under this background, the overall valuation of A-shares with a neutral valuation will hardly have room for a significant upward or downward movement, and shocks are expected to be the mainstay. CSI 500 may have a structural market due to its low valuation.
China SecuritiesSaid that the current state of the economy is still running smoothly, and the central bank has maintained a loose monetary policy, which has unified the market’s concerns about liquidity contraction. However, valuation differentiation has reached historical highs and market volatility may intensify. Investors are advised to grasp the main line of the industry’s prosperity. Industries such as photovoltaics and EVs, which saw a sharp rise in the market in the early stage, are continuing prosperity and are the core of the market. In addition, the chemical industry,Non-ferrous metalsOther industries are also maintaining the continued prosperity and have more cost-effective advantages. Investors are advised to pay attention.
China Merchants SecuritiesIt is judged that the overall economic data in June has been relatively positive. Under the base effect, the growth of industrial production in the second half of the year may slow down to a certain extent. Taking into account the export stimulus and the certain resilience of prices, it is expected that the demand side of some industries in industrial enterprises in the third quarter will have a strong guarantee, and the prosperity will continue.Combining the volume and price performance of industrial enterprises in the latest economic data, interim reportsPerformanceForecast and recent industry profit upward adjustments, areas with high industry prosperity and good performance, and concentrated in export-oriented manufacturing, new energy sector, electronic industry chain, etc. These industries are expected to maintain a relatively high prosperity in the third quarter. It is recommended to focus on The semi-annual report exceeded expectations and the three-quarter report boom will continue to lay out and adjust positions.
Industrial SecuritiesLooking ahead, the overall market will fluctuate mainly. Focus on July and August. Domestic and foreign risk factors may cause disturbances and resonances. There will be surprises but no dangers, and there will be no systemic risks. Pay attention to cost performance, do not chase high in the short term, and re-layout after shocks. 1) In the third quarter, the domestic market may enter a critical period for resolving the existing risks. The three major risks may be resolved. The taper or tightening expectations in August and September in the overseas United States may further ferment, and internal and external resonance may cause disturbance. 2) After entering the intensive period of interim reports, especially the performance period in August, for the science and technology market at this stage, it is often prone to shock adjustments when long-term ideals and short-term performance reality converge. 3) Configuration level: growth direction, short-term priority recommendation of military industry, and wait for short-term market shocks to choose opportunities to increase technology, advanced manufacturing, medicine, etc. The value direction, focusing on the performance of the interim report season and the favorable “dual-carbon” policy, continue to recommend individual stock opportunities in traditional industries such as chemical, nonferrous metals, and glass, which are high-quality core assets with alpha attributes.
GF SecuritiesIt is believed that the A-share microstructure has certain adjustment pressure, and it is difficult to reproduce the “February shock” in the magnitude. Recently, investors have mainly focused on two issues: 1) The tightening of overseas liquidity is gradually approaching.judgmentMidlandChu Taper will be more moderate and there will be no systemic risks. 2) The microstructure is crowded. The A-share microstructure is under pressure to adjust, and it is difficult to reproduce the “February shock” in magnitude. Continue to increase the value of small caps with high winning rates and high odds in terms of configuration. With comprehensive supply policy constraints, upward adjustments in earnings expectations, and low valuation quantiles, industries with high win rates and high odds in small cap values are mainly concentrated in steel, rare earth/aluminum, glass, chemical fiber, etc. In addition, it was previously proposed that the “market value sinking” of some popular growth tracks has been more than halfway, so small-cap growth needs to combine two conditions of high prosperity (winning rate) and still market value sinking space (odds), mainly including optical optoelectronics /medical instruments.
Market outlook strategy:
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Free research report selection: military industry stocks suddenly and violently lifted another market of hundreds of billions in this field!
(Article Source:Oriental wealthResearch center)
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