Global macro
Indonesia’s central bank expects U.S. bond yields may gradually rise
The Bank of Indonesia, as expected by the market, kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5%. The 7-day reverse repo rate has remained at the same level since February. The overnight deposit instrument interest rate and the loan instrument interest rate were maintained at 2.75% and 4.25% respectively. The Bank of Indonesia stated that the Federal Reserve has indicated the framework for reducing its bond purchase plan, but believes that the impact will not be as big as the reduction in bond purchase panic in 2013, and it is expected that the yield of U.S. debt may gradually rise. Some analysts predict that it will be as high as 2.5% next year.
In response to the Fed’s reduction in debt purchases, the Bank of Indonesia will stabilize the Indonesian rupiah and cooperate with the government. If necessary, it will take prudent interventions to support the rupiah. It also believes that the pressure on the local currency will not be too great.
Signs of cooling down in the U.S. real estate market
According to data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) on August 18, the NAHB real estate market index fell to 75 in August, the lowest point since July 2020. The index was 78 last August. This index is based on a monthly survey of 140,000 members of the association, assessing the current and next six months of the market for new home sales and the number of potential buyers of new homes. It can reflect the wishes of home buyers and provide information about the short-term housing market in the United States. Information.
From the perspective of index components, the current sales situation has dropped by 5 points to 81; the flow of potential buyers has also dropped by 5 points to 60; the sales forecast for the next six months is 81 points, which is the same as the previous month.
Data released by NAHB/Wells Fargo Bank on the 17th showed that the index measuring the confidence of builders fell for the third consecutive month, falling from 80 in July to 75, the largest decline since April 2020, which was lower than economists expected. Flat at the median of 80. However, NAHB chief economist Robert said in a statement that the production bottleneck is expected to ease in the next few months and the market may still return to a more normal state.
U.S. stocks in focus
“Sister Mu” again defended her investment strategy, saying that she did not think the stock market was in a bubble
Wood said in an interview: “I don’t think we are in the bubble that many bears call. In the bubble, I remember that in the late 90s, our strategy would be cheered. Do you remember the leapfrog predictions of analysts? The target price is higher than one, and the target price is higher than one. But we are not in that situation. In fact, you will see a lot of IPOs or (SPAC special purpose acquisition companies) emerge and eventually fail. We are still far from the bubble.”
Earlier, Wood’s flagship fund ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK.US) was heavily bearish bet by “big short” Michael Burry. Burry’s Scion Asset Management holds put options on 235,500 shares of ARK Innovation ETF. Other hedge funds also made short bets on ARKInnovation.
Wood said that most of the bearish sentiment for his funds is focused on inflation and higher interest rates. However, his macro argument focuses on deflation brought about by innovation. She said: “The five innovation platforms that we research around: DNA sequencing, robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, and blockchain technology are almost all just getting started.”
Xinhua News Agency said that U.S. stocks are facing more negative pressure
Analysts believe that the recent market volatility is mainly caused by factors such as investor profit-taking operations, setbacks in the economic recovery, and rebound of the epidemic. In the coming weeks, it is expected that multiple unfavorable factors such as the expected warming of the Fed’s monetary policy tightening, the continued fermentation of the epidemic and the expected slowdown in economic growth will further suppress the US stock market.
The minutes of the Fed’s latest interest rate meeting show that at the monetary policy meeting held at the end of July, most Fed officials said that if the economic situation develops in line with expectations, it may be appropriate to start reducing the scale of asset purchases this year. Subsequently, the Global Research Department of Bank of America adjusted the time when the Federal Reserve began to reduce the scale of bond purchases from January 2022 to November 2021. UBS expects that the Federal Reserve will announce its decision to reduce debt purchases at its interest rate meeting in December and begin implementation in January next year.
Analysts believe that even if Fed officials fully communicate on withdrawing from the current quantitative easing measures, the market is still under pressure.
U.S. stock company
Coinbase intends to use 10% of all profits to invest in cryptocurrencies
Brian Armstrong, chief executive of Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, said on Thursday that the board of directors has authorized the consolidation of $500 million worth of cryptocurrency on its balance sheet. Armstrong said in a tweet that the company also plans to invest 10% of all profits in cryptocurrencies.
US FTC filed a new lawsuit against Facebook, insisting it monopolizes social networks
The US Federal Trade Commission renewed its antitrust lawsuit against Facebook, trying to rewrite the lawsuit that was rejected by a judge in June.
On August 19, local time, the Federal Trade Commission resubmitted a lawsuit against Facebook, arguing that the company should be split and forced to sell Instagram and WhatsApp.
In fact, the FTC sued Facebook in December last year, claiming that the social media giant violated antitrust laws when it acquired Instagram and WhatsApp. In June of this year, a U.S. judge dismissed the complaint, but gave the FTC a guide on how to rewrite the complaint and set a deadline for resubmitting the complaint on July 29.
Amazon plans to open several large retail stores in the U.S.
According to Dow Jones, Amazon plans to open several large retail stores similar to department stores in the United States. The area of the new retail store will be approximately 30,000 square feet, and some of the first retail stores will be located in Ohio and California. Amazon’s private label products are expected to occupy a prominent position, and the plan has not yet been finalized and may change.
Microsoft announces price increase for Microsoft 365 for the first time
Microsoft today announced an increase in the pricing of Microsoft 365 Business Edition. IT Home understands that this is the first substantial price increase since Microsoft launched Office 365 ten years ago. Microsoft may intend to increase the price to demonstrate that the value and features of Microsoft 365 have been greatly improved compared to the past.
Since the launch of Microsoft 365, we have added 24 applications to the suite-Microsoft Teams, Power Apps, Power BI, PowerAutomate, Stream, Planner, Visio, OneDrive, Yammer, and Whiteboard, and released more than 1,400 new features And function.
It is worth mentioning that the price increase is only for the commercial version, and the current pricing of the education and home version has not changed. In addition, the Chinese version of Microsoft 365 (operated by 21Vianet) does not seem to increase in price.
Google plans to distribute games on all platforms including Mac
In the morning news on August 20, it was reported that a confidential Google vision document showed that the company plans to become “the world‘s largest gaming platform” and even distribute games on the Mac. This internal document sets out a tentative “five-year plan”, hoping to create a single platform that allows game developers to target players on almost all platforms at the same time, including Windows PCs, Macs, smart screens, and game controllers TV. According to the document entitled “The Future of Games”, the platform will rely on Google’s services and a “low-cost universal portable gamepad” that is compatible with almost any device.
(Source: Oriental Wealth Research Center)
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