Under the tone of “strict supervision”, the tightening of bank mortgages continues. “Economic Information Daily” has interviewed in many places recently and learned that in Guangzhou, Chengdu, Xi’an and other places, some banks’ mortgage lines are relatively tight, and the loan cycle is also longer than before. In addition, the upward trend of mortgage interest rates in many places has also appeared.
Data show that in June, personal housing loans have fallen back regardless of the year-on-year growth rate or the increment. Industry insiders predict that in the next step, the growth rate of personal housing loans will continue to fall. Under the policies of tightening credit and tightening regulation, real estate transactions in some hot cities have ushered in a phased correction.
“Tight quotas and lengthened loan cycles” in many places
“Economic Information Daily” reporters have learned from various interviews that the current bank mortgage quotas in some areas are relatively tight, and the loan cycle of some banks has lengthened. Among them, the loan cycle of second-hand housing is longer than that of new houses.
According to a real estate agency in Guangzhou, currently, the loan cycle for first-hand housing in Guangzhou is about 4 months, and the loan cycle for second-hand housing is about 6 months. “One of the buyers I worked for bought his first home under his own name. It was a second-hand house. He made a combination loan of provident fund loan + commercial loan. In April, the bank issued the same loan book, and the provident fund loan has also been issued. , But so far, commercial loans have not been issued. I have also tried to call 12345 and other hotlines for consultation, but the response is that the exact loan date cannot be guaranteed, but after the quota is available, the loan will be released as soon as possible in order.”
A real estate agency in Hangzhou said, “Bank approvals are relatively fast, but loans are slow”. According to the intermediary, the loan for new houses is generally about 1 month, while for second-hand houses, it is more than 3 months. A real estate agency in Xi’an said, “You can get loans without any problems with your qualifications, but the cycle is longer, some up to 3 to 6 months, and individual bank quotas are relatively tight.” A real estate agency in Chengdu said that new house loans are not difficult. Second-hand housing is very difficult, most of the loans have to wait 1 to 3 months.
However, many banks said that the mortgage business is still ongoing and has not been suspended. The Guangdong Branch of the Agricultural Bank of China stated that although the scale of personal housing loans has further tightened since this year, first-hand and second-hand housing loans are accepted in a normal and balanced manner, and there is no “stop payment” or “stop lending” situation. The Guangdong branch of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China stated that the current overall housing loan quota is still relatively tight, but it has not suspended the personal second-hand housing loan business.
The upward trend of mortgage interest rates in many places has also appeared. In June, the Shell Research Institute monitored the 72-city mainstream first-home loan interest rate at 5.52%, and the second set of interest rates at 5.77%, which were 5 and 4 basis points higher than that in May. Take Chengdu as an example. In June, the first home loan interest rate in Chengdu was 6.13%, and the second home loan interest rate was 6.27%, both exceeding 6%.
The growth rate of personal housing loans is expected to continue to fall
According to data released by the People’s Bank of China a few days ago, at the end of June, personal housing loans increased by 13% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell 1.6 percentage points from the end of the previous year, a year-on-year decrease of 160.2 billion yuan. Both the year-on-year growth rate and the increment are falling.
Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China Merchants Union Finance, said that as the country continues to strengthen real estate market regulation and the in-depth implementation of real estate loan concentration management systems, banks have gradually tightened policies in terms of loan quotas and interest rates, and personal housing loans have greatly narrowed the growth space. Although the overall RRR cut will be implemented on July 15, the central bank will strengthen guidance and restraint on financial institutions through macro prudential assessment (MPA), window guidance, etc., to ensure that funds released by the RRR cut flow to key areas and weak links of the national economy. It will be difficult for the RRR cut funds to enter the real estate market. In the next step, it is expected that the growth rate of personal housing loans will continue to fall, housing loan quotas in some hot cities will be tight, and interest rates may rise.
Kewei Yang, a researcher at the Crane Real Estate Research Center, also said that under the policy environment of “no speculation in housing and implementation of policies in accordance with the city”, the real estate credit policy may continue to be tightened to fully implement stabilization of land prices, housing prices, and expectations. , To prevent real estate from becoming a “gray rhino” of financial risks. In the second half of the year, commercial banks will strictly control the pace of personal housing loans, housing loan interest rates will continue to trend upward, and further strengthen the management of the use of credit funds, through the comprehensive self-examination of commercial banks and the investigation and accountability of regulatory agencies, to strictly prevent the passage of credit funds. Channels illegally flowed into the real estate market.
The relevant person in charge of the Bank of Tianjin stated that the Bank of Tianjin has adopted various methods such as re-inspecting the business management system, strengthening review and approval standards, implementing the supervision policy of entrusted payment funds, and arranging special inspections. Housing loan funds flowed into the real estate market in violation of regulations.
The Guangdong Branch of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China stated, “Under the condition of strictly complying with the differentiated housing credit policy, our bank will give priority to supporting the mortgage loan needs of buyers who just need homes in terms of credit lines and differential pricing of interest rates, while taking measures to further optimize loan processing. In order to better serve our customers. At the same time, our bank further strengthened the review of the source of the down payment for house purchases to effectively prevent the illegal flow of funds into the real estate sector.”
Dong Ximiao also said that the real reason for the tightening of bank mortgage business in the first half of this year was not that banks did not have credit funds, but that the financial management department strictly restricted bank mortgages through window guidance and other methods. He suggested that in the process of implementing the real estate loan concentration management system, the financial management department should make reasonable and appropriate requirements to minimize the impact on the demand for housing purchases and the reasonable development of housing loans.
Transaction is significantly suppressed under tightening mortgages
“Hangzhou, Foshan, Ningbo, Changzhou and other high-risk cities in the early stage, under the policy pressure of tightening credit and over-regulation, all ushered in a phased callback, and the transaction performance was not as good as before.” Yang Kewei pointed out that due to the continuous increase in regulation, credit collection As interest rates rise, speculative demand has been curbed, the overall market has become more rational in June. Among them, the growth momentum of second- and third-tier cities weakened.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in June, the sales area of commercial housing increased by 7.5% year-on-year, and the area of residential sales increased by 6.7% year-on-year, both of which have fallen to single digits.
The downward trend in transactions continues. CREIS middle index data show that in the week from July 12 to July 18, the transactions in the 21 cities under monitoring dropped 17.2% month-on-month. Among them, the transaction volume of 14 cities all declined to varying degrees, accounting for 67% of the monitored cities; compared with the same period last year, the transaction volume of 20 representative cities decreased by 4.3%, and the transaction volume of 13 cities all declined year-on-year. Specifically, first-tier cities fell by 27.8% month-on-month, second-tier cities fell 13.4% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year; third-tier cities fell 21.4% month-on-month and fell 31.4% year-on-year.
Yang Kewei predicts that the core first- and second-tier cities are mainly subject to supply. If the supply is large, the overall transaction is still expected to be stable at a high level, and the hot cities that have introduced regulations are likely to face a callback; and for most third- and fourth-tier cities that lack fundamental support In other words, downward pressure will continue to intensify.
Shen Xin, a senior researcher at the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, said that in the context of unrelaxed regulation, the overall RRR cut will have a limited impact on the real estate sector. It is expected that in the second half of the year, the country’s cumulative sales area of commercial housing will continue to decline year-on-year.
Head of Duty: Li Huan
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