Futures Daily
CBOTsoybeanAfter a brief rise above 1500 cents per bushel, it fell back. In addition to the impact of macro factors such as the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations and international crude oil, the main reason is the improvement of Argentina’s short-term rainfall and the brighter prospect of South American soybean harvest.
Although Argentina and Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul region have not yet seen a significant improvement in rainfall, medium and long-term weather forecasts show that after mid-January, the El Niño index will gradually turn to neutral, and the uneven rainfall in South America is expected to improve. Affected by this, the rainfall in the core production area of Argentina, which was severely drought-stricken earlier, and the Rio Grande do Sul state in Brazil will return to the historical average, which will bring much-needed rainfall to the soybean crops in the critical growth period. Not pessimistic. Therefore, the current market is still relatively optimistic about South American soybean production. In addition, although the market has been trading on the subject of Argentina’s drought for more than a month, it has not been confirmed by official agencies. The forecast data of commercial agencies is uneven. Guide the direction of short-term market trading.
domesticsoybean mealFutures and spot prices both went down. As of the close on January 10, the 2305 contract, the main soybean meal futures, fell below the 3,800 yuan/ton integer mark support, and the spot price also fell to a position slightly above 4,500 yuan/ton, a month-on-month drop of nearly 300 yuan/ton. The price of domestic soybean meal futures fell, in addition to being dragged down by the cost of U.S. soybeans, but also due to the simultaneous pressure from both supply and demand of domestic soybean meal spot.
From the perspective of the supply side, since a large number of imported soybeans arrived in Hong Kong in mid-November 2022, domestic oil mills have cashed in on spot crushing profits and maintained a crushing volume of about 2 million tons for 6 consecutive weeks. . However, the demand for soybean meal has not kept up with it, and oil mill inventories have bottomed out in mid-November 2022 and have risen week by week. As of December 30, 2022, the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has accumulated to 550,000 tons, which is a substantial increase from the inventory of less than 150,000 tons in mid-November.
From the perspective of demand, although the Spring Festival is approaching, midstream and downstream companies have not seen concentrated stockpiling. In the past month, the transaction of soybean meal has been light, and the goods have been picked up evenly. From the perspective of transactions, the buying interest in the middle and lower reaches is not high, mainly because, on the one hand, from November to early December 2022, affected by concerns about future supply, large traders and feed mills will concentrate on purchasing far-month basis. Among them, the transaction price of the basis difference from February to April 2023 is M2305+650-700 yuan/ton, while the current price quoted by the oil factory for the far-month basis difference from February to March 2023 is also M2305+700 yuan/ton, and there is no price Advantage. Today, Brazil’s new crop soybean harvest prospects are becoming clearer. With the expectation that Brazil’s soybean exports will reach nearly 90 million tons in 2023, the domestic supply of imported soybeans will be sufficient in the next six months, and the middle and lower reaches will have no incentive to purchase soybean meal far-month basis prices. On the other hand, the end of the year is the peak season for meat and egg consumption. Breeding enterprises concentrate on slaughtering, and the inventory drops sharply. However, at the end of 2022, the market demand for feed is relatively empty, and after December 2022, the price of live pigs will fall, and the profit of breeding will shrink rapidly. Margins in poultry and egg farming have also shrunk, hurting feed demand. From this point of view, the purchase demand in the middle and lower reaches is light, and the transaction of soybean meal is not good.
The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and the supply of soybean meal may slow down due to the shutdown of oil factories and the holiday of logistics. In order to ensure the just-needed consumption during the long holiday, in the last two weeks before the Spring Festival, midstream and downstream feed companies will speed up the pace of delivery, and the spot price has limited room for decline.
After the Spring Festival, affected by the holidays from January to February, the arrival of domestically imported soybeans to Hong Kong and the start-up of oil plant crushing dropped sharply. According to statistics, the estimated arrival of domestic soybeans to Hong Kong in January was 7.12 million tons, and the estimated arrival of domestic soybeans to Hong Kong in February was 5.5 million tons. The author believes that the supply of imported soybeans will have a periodical low in February, and at the same time, the decline in the start-up of oil mills may lead to a periodical tightening of domestic imported soybeans and soybean meal stocks. However, after March, Brazilian soybeans will be concentrated in Hong Kong. Under the expectation of high yield in Brazil, the supply of domestic imported soybeans will be sufficient from March to August. Domestic soybean and soybean meal stocks may accumulate rapidly, and the soybean meal basis will be under pressure.
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in the Sina Finance APP