Home Business The U.S. dollar index has fallen back, iron ore prices have been supported to a certain extent | U.S. dollar_Sina Finance_Sina.com

The U.S. dollar index has fallen back, iron ore prices have been supported to a certain extent | U.S. dollar_Sina Finance_Sina.com

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The U.S. dollar index has fallen back, iron ore prices have been supported to a certain extent | U.S. dollar_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Source: CCB Futures Author: CCB Futures

Research report text

1. Market review and operational suggestions

Outlook

December 2,iron oreThe closing price of the main stone contract was 787.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.74% from yesterday. The top 20 short positions were 290,851.00 lots, a decrease of 4.98% from yesterday, which has been reduced for 10 consecutive days. The top 20 long positions were 332,312.00 lots, a decrease of 3.39% from yesterday , has decreased for 5 consecutive days. Powell said that the Fed may reduce interest rate hikes from December, and the U.S. dollar index has fallen, which has given some support to the iron ore disk price.

Since November, there have been frequent favorable policies on the macro-policy side, and the policies on real estate financing have “triggered at the same time”, and the black series has continued to rebound due to strong expectations and deviating from the fundamentals. Although there are frequent favorable policies on the policy side, the content is still focused on avoiding systemic risks of “guaranteed housing” and “guaranteed housing enterprises”. Many factors that affect the downward demand for real estate have not been substantially changed. They will choose to take the initiative to deleverage, and the risky real estate companies will still be struggling in the cracks. Under the current situation that the general policy of dynamic clearing remains unchanged, it is expected that the terminal demand situation will not be greatly improved, and the market price will rise due to strong expectations. Will further accumulate downside risks based on fundamentals.

On December 2, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 75.61%, a decrease of 1.84% from last week, the capacity utilization rate was 82.62%, an increase of 0.12% from last week, and the average daily output of molten iron was 2.2281 million tons, an increase from last week 0.11%; on November 20, the average daily output of crude steel was 2.002 million tons, an increase of 0.77%. On December 2, the iron ore inventory in Hong Kong 45 was 132.7781 million tons, a decrease of 1.53% from last week and a decrease of 12.94% year-on-year; the iron ore inventory in Hong Kong 41 was 127.5081 million tons, a decrease of 1.65% from last week; 10,000 tons, a decrease of 0.10% from last week; Brazil’s inventory was 45.2604 million tons, an increase of 0.71% from last week.

Recently, the demand for iron ore has picked up, and the port inventory has declined, but the demand for thread tables has continued to decline, and the demand for iron ore is expected to be limited.

Fundamental analysis

Descriptive statistics:

On November 25, the cumulative monthly shipment of iron ore in Australia was 68.285 million tons, the cumulative monthly shipment of iron ore in Brazil was 23.726 million tons, and the domestic arrival of iron ore was 22.604 million tons, a decrease of 32.90 million tons from last week. 10,000 tons, which has been reduced for 2 consecutive weeks.

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In the third quarter, the output of Vale was 89.701 million tons, an increase of 0.31% year-on-year, which has increased continuously for the second quarter. The output of FMG was 54.80 million tons, a decrease of 9.87% year-on-year. In the quarter, BHP Billiton’s output was 65.073 million tons, an increase of 2.80% year-on-year, which has increased for two consecutive quarters.

Descriptive statistics:

On December 2, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 75.61%, a decrease of 1.84% from last week, the capacity utilization rate was 82.62%, an increase of 0.12% from last week, and the average daily output of molten iron was 2.2281 million tons, an increase from last week 0.11%; on November 20, the average daily output of crude steel was 2.002 million tons, an increase of 0.77%.

Descriptive statistics:

On December 2, the iron ore inventory in Hong Kong 45 was 132.7781 million tons, a decrease of 1.53% from last week and a decrease of 12.94% year-on-year; the iron ore inventory in Hong Kong 41 was 127.5081 million tons, a decrease of 1.65% from last week; 10,000 tons, a decrease of 0.10% from last week; Brazil’s inventory was 45.2604 million tons, an increase of 0.71% from last week.

On December 2, the iron ore inventory in Hong Kong 45 was 132.7781 million tons, a decrease of 1.53% from last week and a decrease of 12.94% year-on-year; the iron ore inventory in Hong Kong 41 was 127.5081 million tons, a decrease of 1.65% from last week; 10,000 tons, a decrease of 0.10% from last week; Brazil’s inventory was 45.2604 million tons, an increase of 0.71% from last week.

Descriptive statistics:

On November 29, the 58% Fe Platts price index was US$84.75/ton, up 2.17% from yesterday; the 62%Fe Platts price index was US$101.25/ton, up 2.38% from yesterday; the 65%Fe Platts price index It was US$113.25/ton, an increase of 2.12% from yesterday; on November 29, the one-month Singapore swap price was US$100.78/ton, an increase of 2.69% from yesterday, and the three-month swap price was US$99.13/ton, an increase of 2.49% from yesterday , 6 months to 97.30 US dollars / ton, up 2.54% from yesterday, 12 months to 93.97 US dollars / ton, up 2.60% from yesterday, 23 months to 88.84 US dollars / ton, up 2.73% from yesterday.

On November 30, the Baltic Freight Index: Dry Bulk (BDI) was 1355.00 points, up 28.00 points from yesterday, and the Baltic Sea Freight Index: Capesize (BCI) was 1643.00 points, up 54.00 points from yesterday. On November 30, Newcastle – The iron ore freight rate in China is US$12.50/ton.

On November 30, the 58% Fe Platts price index was US$85.25/ton, up 0.59% from yesterday, the 62%Fe Platts price index was US$101.15/ton, down 0.10% from yesterday, and the 65%Fe Platts price index It was US$113.15/ton, down 0.09% from yesterday; on November 30, the one-month Singapore swap price was US$100.69/ton, down 0.09% from yesterday, and the three-month swap price was US$99.04/ton, down 0.09% from yesterday , 6 months to 97.24 US dollars / ton, down 0.06% from yesterday, 12 months to 93.86 US dollars / ton, down 0.12% from yesterday, 23 months to 88.70 US dollars / ton, down 0.16% from yesterday.

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On December 1, the Baltic Freight Index: Dry Bulk (BDI) was 1338.00 points, down 17.00 points from yesterday, and the Baltic Sea Freight Index: Capesize (BCI) was 1570.00 points, down 73.00 points from yesterday. On December 2, Newcastle – The iron ore freight rate in China is US$12.50/ton.

Descriptive statistics:

On November 25, the total inventory of construction steel was 6.4722 million tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons from last week, which has been reduced for 7 consecutive weeks. The social inventory of construction steel is 4.188 million tons, a decrease of 162,600 tons from last week, which has been reduced for 7 consecutive weeks , The inventory of construction steel mills was 2.2842 million tons, an increase of 52,600 tons from last week.RebarThe weekly output was 2.8488 million tons, a decrease of 57,900 tons from last week, which has been reduced for 4 consecutive weeks. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils was 2.8884 million tons, a decrease of 73,800 tons from last week, which has been reduced for 5 consecutive weeks. The apparent demand for threads was 2.9126 million tons, a decrease of 207,000 tons from last week, which has been reduced for 3 consecutive weeks. The annual apparent demand for threads was 133.9374 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.43%.

On December 2, the total inventory of construction steel was 6.4992 million tons, an increase of 27,000 tons from last week. The social inventory of construction steel was 4.1908 million tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from last week. An increase of 24,200 tons last week. The weekly output of rebar was 2.8414 million tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons from last week, which has been reduced for 5 consecutive weeks. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils was 2.9759 million tons, an increase of 87,500 tons from last week. The apparent demand for threads was 2.7977 million tons, a decrease of 114,900 tons from last week, which has been reduced for 4 consecutive weeks. The annual apparent demand for threads was 136.7351 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.44%.

Descriptive statistics:

On October 31, the cumulative source of investment funds for real estate this year was 12,548.012 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.68%, and a single month was 1,118.205 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.05% from the previous month, and a year-on-year decrease of 26.00%; the cumulative real estate construction area was 8,888,938,000 square meters meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.72%, a single month of 99.7439 million square meters, a decrease of 2.89% from the previous month, and a year-on-year decrease of 32.58%; the cumulative real estate completed area was 465.6458 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.72%, and a single month of 56.8561 million square meters , an increase of 41.51% from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 9.43%; the cumulative real estate sales area was 1,111,792,900 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22.27%, and a single month was 97,575,700 square meters, a decrease of 27.89% from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 23.22%.

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On October 31, the cumulative value of infrastructure investment was 16,960.691 billion yuan, an increase of 11.39% year-on-year, and it was 2,047.256 billion yuan in a single month, a decrease of 6.53% from the previous month, and an increase of 12.81% year-on-year.

Descriptive statistics:

In October, the U.S. CPI was 7.70% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.50 percentage points from the previous month, which has been falling for four consecutive months. In November, the federal funds target rate was 4.00%, an increase of 0.75 percentage points.

2. Industry news

On November 3, Powell said that the Fed may reduce interest rate hikes from December.

People’s Daily Online, Beijing, November 29th (Huang Sheng) The spokesperson of the China Securities Regulatory Commission stated on November 28 that the China Securities Regulatory Commission has decided to adjust and optimize five measures with immediate effect to support equity financing of real estate companies and support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

On November 28, the People’s Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on December 5, 2022. On November 17, at the press conference, further improving the scientificity and precision of prevention and control—— In the twenty-point optimization measures hot question and answer, it is mentioned that optimizing and adjusting prevention and control measures is not to relax prevention and control, let alone let go, “lay flat”, but to adapt to the new situation of epidemic prevention and control and the new characteristics of the mutation of the new crown virus, and adhere to the established prevention and control measures. Control strategies and guidelines to further improve the scientific nature and precision of prevention and control.

On November 12, the People’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the “Notice on Doing a Good Job of Financial Support for the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market”.

On November 11, the 20 articles on epidemic prevention and control were further optimized.

On November 3, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points.

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