April price data will be released soon. Most institutions believe that oil prices continued to rise in April, the price increase of fruits, vegetables and eggs expanded, and pork production capacity accelerated, which constituted a positive pull on the CPI. 2% or so. According to industry insiders, the overall price situation in my country is moderate and will not constrain monetary policy, and there is still room for policy.
CPI rose by more than 2% year-on-year
The rise in food prices and oil prices in April constituted a positive pull on the CPI month-on-month, superimposed on the influence of tail-raising factors. The agency predicts that the year-on-year increase in the CPI in April will be 2%, or even exceed this level.
On the food side, due to the impact of the epidemic, food prices have risen super-seasonally. According to the Essence Securities report, the prices of fresh fruit and eggs rose by 9.9% and 12.3% month-on-month respectively in April, and the increase was higher than the same period in history.
“Affected by the epidemic, transportation and logistics in some areas were limited in April, and supply was partially and phased.” Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, said that the prices of fruits, vegetables and eggs have risen sharply under the increased demand, which has formed a strong support for the upward trend of CPI. , CPI in April is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year.
Chen Xing, chief macro analyst of Zhongtai Securities, believes that the supply blockage caused by the epidemic has increased the price increase of vegetables and other foods. In addition, the growth rate of pig prices has narrowed significantly compared with the previous month under the support of the purchase and storage policy. The base was not high in the same period last year. Under the circumstances, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in April may exceed 2%.
On the non-food side, the lagging effect of the rise in international oil prices appeared, and the price of refined oil rose in April. According to a report from Huachuang Securities, the average retail price of gasoline on April 92 rose by about 6.6% month-on-month. In addition, Chi Guangsheng, chief analyst of fixed income at Essence Securities, said that the CPI inflation factor in April rose from 0.3% in the previous month to 0.6%. Affected by this, it is expected that the year-on-year increase in the CPI in April will increase from 1.5% in March. 1.9%.
Looking forward to the price trend in the next stage, Wang Likun, an associate researcher at the Institute of Market Economics of the Development Research Center of the State Council, predicts that the pork market will transition from a basic balance of supply and demand to a tight balance in the second or third quarter. At that time, pork prices will enter an upward channel, driving the CPI to rise moderately.
There is room for policy regulation
Recently, the international oil price has fluctuated sharply, and the global high inflation expectation has increased, and the risk of imported inflation in my country has increased. Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, said that my country’s grain, oil, meat, eggs, milk, fruit and vegetable production is stable and the supply is sufficient, and the logistics and distribution links in a few areas affected by the epidemic are gradually opening up, which is the basis for maintaining the overall stability of the prices of important commodities for people’s livelihood. More solid, it is expected that the CPI increase will continue to operate within a reasonable range during the year.
To maintain price stability, my country still has room for policy. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Orient Jincheng, said that under the current global high inflation situation, my country’s overall price situation is moderate. In the second quarter, while the monetary policy focuses on structural policy tools, aggregate tools such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts are all over the place. There is room for action. In addition, the accelerated tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve will not constitute a substantial constraint on the flexible adjustment of my country’s monetary policy.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, believes that the recent multi-point spread of the epidemic has led to the blockage of local supply chains and industrial chains, and it is necessary to prevent the impact of supply blockages on domestic prices. At the same time, international energy and raw material commodity prices have been “high fever” for a long time, which may push some upstream companies to pass on some costs to downstream terminals. “While monetary policy is promoting the steady recovery of domestic demand, it is necessary to adopt more targeted policies to help enterprises bail out, smooth freight logistics, and improve supply efficiency.” Zhou Maohua said.Return to Sohu, see more
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