According to the Financial Associated Press (Shijiazhuang, reporter Zhang Liangde), recently, the thermal coal market related policies and actions have been intensively introduced, and the market supply side has improved. Affected by this, the prices of most black products in the domestic commodity futures market have fallen, and thermal coal futures led the decline. At the close of the market on August 2, the main contract for thermal coal, ZC109, fell more than 6.53% to RMB 865.2 per ton.
Regarding the decline in thermal coal futures, Wang Lingxiang, an analyst at GF Futures, believes: “The previous price increase was mainly due to the failure to increase production. This time there has been a real change in supply and demand. There may be support for short-term prices, but the supply side will continue to improve in the medium and long term. .”
Bad policy strikes, thermal coal futures fall first to respect
On July 30, General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over a meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee. The meeting requested that the supply and price stability of bulk commodities should be ensured, and the work of ensuring the peak summer of electricity should be done. In the following day, relevant policies and actions were intensively introduced, supply optimism rose, and thermal coal futures prices fell across the board.
Regarding the sudden sharp drop in thermal coal futures this time, Hu Bin, an analyst in the coal chemical industry of Founder Mid-term Futures, believes: “This policy release has a clear number and time point, which is a significant improvement compared to the previous one. However, the downside brought about by the policy release is even greater. Many are short-term negatives, and it depends on whether the supply side can truly increase the volume.”
Regarding policy factors, Hou Zhihua, deputy general manager of Today’s Think Tank, believes that there are mainly the following points: “First, the National Development and Reform Commission and other three departments jointly issued a notice requiring the implementation of capacity replacement commitments for nuclear increase in coal mine production capacity. Second, July Inner Mongolia Land use procedures have been approved for 38 open-pit coal mines, and it is expected that the production will be stably increased by 200,000 tons per day after reaching production capacity. Thirdly, the head of the relevant departments of the National Development and Reform Commission recently led a team to conduct research in Yulin City and other places to ensure supply and price stability, and urge the locals Take strong measures to increase production and supply, and stabilize the market. The introduction of several heavy news and measures will further accelerate the release of high-quality domestic coal production capacity and increase the market’s coal supply capacity.”
In addition to the market supply guarantee policy, the futures market also imposed restrictions on related products again. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange notified on July 30 that the trading margin standard for some thermal coal futures contracts was adjusted to 20%, which was higher than before. 5 percentage points. Hu Bin said: “Compared with the guarantee policy, this increase in contract margin is not the main reason for the price impact.”
The independent supply of spot prices is still tight, analysts believe that the spot price may follow the decline
Will the spot price follow the decline after the sharp drop in the futures price? In this regard, a coal washing plant in North China stated that the current market is still in a seller’s market and supply is still tight. Coal prices at mines in Shaanxi are basically liberalized. The market is still in strong demand. Futures prices have no direct impact on spot prices. Traders still have Tuning coal phenomenon.
A trader in North China stated that some of the previously purchased goods have not yet been released, and introduced the current market situation: “The upstream part of the pit has falsely reduced prices, and some use low cards as high-grade, and the actual price has not decreased. The downstream accepts the current price. Well, the price of 5000 kcal thermal coal for some power plant customers in Shandong has just increased to about 1,100 yuan. The market price is too transparent. Downstream power plants have just raised their prices in the morning, and some mines have raised their prices in the afternoon.”
The current price of the spot market, according to the information of Yimei.com, the latest Beigang 5500K price is 1080-1130 yuan/ton, the high-calorie Shaanxi coal transaction is 1150 yuan/ton, and the 5000K price is 980-1000 yuan/ton.
Regarding the situation that the spot market price did not immediately follow the decline, Wang Lingxiang, an analyst at GF Futures, said: “Now the futures market is indeed relatively full of price expectations. Futures may move first and the spot will slow down in the market. Black varieties All have this characteristic: expectation precedes spot price fluctuations.”
Today’s think tank Hou Zhihua analyzed the market outlook that the market supply situation has improved, but the pressure of coal supply in August is still relatively high. Hou Zhihua believes that it is mainly because: “More than 20 coal mines in Shaanxi that had stopped production in the early stage resumed production one after another, and the new round of coal pipe tickets in Inner Mongolia was issued in August; the volume of the Daqin line has improved significantly, and the Bohai Rim Port and Qinhuangdao Port continue to increase inventory. As of today, the inventory of Qinhuangdao Port has reached 4.24 million tons, and the downstream cement and chemical industries have begun to implement peak-shift production. Affected by the typhoon weather, the downstream daily consumption has decreased, but after the typhoon, the demand for electricity in various places will increase under high temperature. And in the near future. The regional epidemic rebounded, and precipitation in some areas was higher than that of the same period in previous years, which will have a certain impact on coal transportation.”
In terms of futures trend expectations, Founder Intermediate Futures Hu Bin said: “You need to be cautious when chasing short positions. It is even more recommended to gradually arrange short orders after the rebound is high.”