Home Business This week, the port depot methanol futures prices remain range-bound. Methanol_Sina Finance_Sina.com

This week, the port depot methanol futures prices remain range-bound. Methanol_Sina Finance_Sina.com

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This week, the port depot methanol futures prices remain range-bound. Methanol_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Source: Western Futures Author: Western Futures

The text of the research report

Industry news:

1. Longzhong information news on September 22, this week in ChinamethanolThe output was 1.4936 million tons, up 1.13% month-on-month; the weekly average capacity utilization rate was 73.97%.

2. Longzhong Information reported on September 22 that the overall operating rate of methanol to olefins this week was 78.15%, up 5.11% from last week; the operating rates of dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, acetic acid and chloride in the traditional downstream changed month-on-month respectively + 4.57%, -3.59%, -5.05% and -4.55%.

Overview:

Yesterday, the main methanol contract continued to rebound and rose, closing at 2,727 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.15%; the Taicang basis closed at 63 points, up 4 points from the previous value. At the macro level, the Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points in the early morning yesterday, which was in line with market expectations. Commodities were all negative in the short term, and they all ushered in a certain increase yesterday.

In addition, methanol cost support is still strong at this stage. Wind data shows that Tianjin Port yesterdaythermal coalThe closing price is 1292 yuan / ton, which has been rising for 35 consecutive days.

In the spot market, yesterday, Henan, East China and South China rose by 10-35 yuan / ton. The reduction of production in Iran has led to a decrease in import expectations. The superimposed spot available in port areas is still tight, and the methanol basis continues to rise.

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From a fundamental point of view, starting from mid-to-late September, the restart plan of methanol plants in the northwest has been relatively concentrated. The supply side has ushered in a significant increase this week, and the weekly average capacity utilization rate has increased by 1.13% month-on-month.

From the demand side, the operating rate of traditional demand has fluctuated this week. Before the winter environmental protection inspection comes, there is still a strong improvement expectation in the traditional downstream of methanol. In addition, with the arrival of the National Day holiday, some MTO manufacturers have replenishment needs, and it is expected that the overall performance of methanol demand will improve in the short term.

In terms of inventory, the port inventory this week decreased by 99,100 tons compared with the previous month. Affected by the coastal typhoon, the unloading of some cargoes and the slowing of the sailing speed, superimposed that the pickup of goods in various regions in Jiangne ​​has improved, and the inventory consumption has been accelerated.

In general:At this stage, the sales in most mainland markets are good, and manufacturers are ideal for going to the warehouse.At present, coal prices are still strong and with the seasonal recovery of methanol terminal demand, but the concentrated restart of methanol plants in Northwest China since mid-to-late September may bring a certain negative impact. It is expected that the domestic methanol market will maintain a range-bound pattern in the near future, and we will pay attention to crude oil in the later period.Changes in coal prices.

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