Original title: This winter, energy supply and stable prices have confidence
Entering November, the northern region has entered the heating season one after another, and the demand for energy and electricity has continued to increase, and the focus of energy and electricity supply has shifted to peak winter. With the overall tight international energy supply and high prices, as well as the continuous increase in domestic industrial electricity consumption and the strong operation of coal prices, how is my country’s energy and power supply preparations going this winter and next spring? Can energy and power supply meet the needs of economic and social development and production and life?
The peak winter is gradually unfolding
In order to cope with the substantial cooling that came early, some northern regions such as Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning have recently ignited heating in advance.
In the face of extreme weather such as cold air, strong wind, heavy snow, and freezing that are prone to occur in winter, not only will the demand for electricity rise sharply, but the safe and stable operation of the power system will also face challenges. Ensuring the safe supply of electricity has become the focus of work in the southern region during the peak winter season.
Zhejiang is a large province of electricity consumption, and there is a large shortage of electricity in winter peaks. On November 1, the staff of State Grid Wuyi County Power Supply Company installed flexible control devices in relevant buildings in Wuyi County, Jinhua, Zhejiang. “After the installation is completed, the power department can carry out real-time monitoring of air-conditioning load, differentiated customization of response strategies, statistical analysis of electricity saving, etc., to guide users to use electricity scientifically and to use electricity off-peak.” Zhang Jimin, director of the company’s marketing department, revealed that only through this A measure, the local can form a response resource pool that can theoretically adjust 9693 kilowatts of electricity.
Regarding the overall supply guarantee across the country, Ren Jingdong, deputy director of the National Energy Administration, introduced that in terms of coal power, the coal storage in power plants under unified control across the country is currently maintained at more than 170 million tons, an increase of about 100% over the same period last year and the highest level in history. In the first eight months, the national coal output was 2.93 billion tons, an increase of 11% year-on-year. In terms of oil and gas, domestic crude oil production has increased for three consecutive years, and natural gas production has increased by more than 10 billion cubic meters for five consecutive years. In terms of clean energy, giant hydropower stations such as Wudongde and Baihetan have been completed and put into operation.
The recently held video and telephone conference on keeping warm and ensuring supply this winter pointed out that with the joint efforts of relevant parties, a good foundation has been laid for ensuring energy supply and stable prices this winter. It is necessary to continue to strengthen resource planning and policy support, do practical work to keep warm and ensure supply, ensure stable economic operation, ensure energy security and supply, ensure that residential electricity, gas and energy prices are stable, and the masses are warm for the winter.
Challenges in some areas
Although the energy supply is well prepared, the challenges it faces are still not small. This summer, the extreme high temperature weather with the longest duration and the widest influence in recent decades occurred in my country. The superimposed economic recovery and growth drove the rapid growth of electricity load. There are 21 provincial-level power grids across the country with a record high electricity load. The situation of power supply guarantee in East China and Central China is severe, and the power supply situation in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei and other regions is particularly tense.
Weather factors are also the largest variable in winter energy and electricity demand. According to the forecast of the meteorological department, the temperature in most parts of the country this winter will be lower than in previous years, and the low temperature will increase the demand for heating gas and electricity. Some regional government departments said that this will increase the contradiction between power supply and consumption to a certain extent.
The Hangzhou Municipal Development and Reform Commission predicts that there is a high probability that there will be a shortage of electricity in Hangzhou this winter. If there is insufficient natural gas supply, continuous extreme low temperature, and reduction of external electricity, the electricity shortage will further increase, and the power supply and consumption situation will be more severe. According to estimates by the Sichuan Provincial Economic and Information Department, if the unfavorable factors such as insufficient water supply, insufficient water storage in reservoirs, insufficient coal and gas, and difficulty in securing electricity from Sichuan and outsourced electricity are considered, there may be a certain gap in the power supply in Sichuan Province, and the power supply in winter will meet the peak. The supply situation is grim. Yuan Huanming, a second-level inspector of the Jiangsu Provincial Energy Bureau, believes that considering the extreme weather this winter may face and the seasonal decline in the supply of gas and out-of-area calls, the supply and demand situation of electricity in Jiangsu during the peak winter will be more severe.
Xu Shubiao, deputy general manager of the State Power Investment Corporation, said that currently affected by the international energy situation, climate and epidemic, the price of thermal coal continues to run at a high level, and there is a “double gap” in power generation in key areas.
Taking into account factors such as the boundaries of medium and long-term trading contracts, newly commissioned installed capacity, inter-provincial and inter-regional power exchange, power generation obstruction and reasonable backup, the China Electricity Council estimates that the national power supply and demand will be in a tight balance during the peak winter, and some regions Electricity supply and demand are tight during peak hours. From a regional perspective, it is expected that the power supply and demand in North China and Northeast China will be basically balanced during the peak winter; the power supply and demand in East China, Central China, Northwest China and South China will be tight.
In short, due to the intertwined and superimposed influence of many factors, the power supply guarantee this winter and next spring is facing great challenges, which should not be taken lightly.
Never allow “power cuts”
Coal is the “ballast stone” of my country’s energy security. To ensure the safety of electricity consumption during peak winter, the core is to keep an eye on coal supply. “Study and judge the power supply and demand situation in advance during the peak season and winter, and make a detailed plan for ensuring supply. Implement the national daily coal production scheduling mechanism and the price and inventory monitoring mechanism, and strengthen the direct production scheduling of key coal enterprises.” Ren Jingdong said that it is necessary to coordinate and ensure power generation. Fuel supply, implement policy incentives or constraints on the completed production and transfer volume of relevant provinces, and simultaneously strengthen the supervision of the performance of medium and long-term thermal coal contracts.
National Energy Group is the largest coal production company and thermal power generation company in the country. Zhang Yuxin, a spokesman for the group, said that it is necessary to speed up the release of high-quality and compliant coal production capacity, promote the “three reforms and linkages” of coal power, give full play to the synergistic advantages of coal and power to ensure coal supply, and promote the construction of special railway lines and the expansion and transformation of port shipping capacity to promote security capabilities. promote.
To ensure the balance of power supply and demand during peak power consumption, the safe and stable operation of the power grid plays a key role. Huzhou, Zhejiang is a rare power and energy transmission area in the country with complete voltage levels and dense grid distribution. In order to ensure the efficient and high-quality overhaul of the power grid, the State Grid Huzhou Power Supply Company makes full use of new equipment, new technologies and digital and intelligent means to further improve the quality and efficiency of overhaul. In this winter’s supply guarantee, the company has newly introduced a portable automatic lifting device. With this device, live operators can bring work tools into the electric field without climbing the tower, saving time and physical exertion.
While the power generation side is fully guaranteed, it is necessary to further tap the adjustment potential of the power demand side. The China Electricity Council said that it is necessary to do a good job in demand-side management and guide the society to raise awareness of energy conservation and electricity conservation. Improve the orderly power consumption management mechanism and orderly power consumption plan to ensure that the adjustable load scale fully covers the power supply and demand gap. A market-oriented mechanism for demand-side response should be introduced as soon as possible to encourage users to actively participate in demand response such as system peak regulation and frequency regulation.
As a major energy producer and consumer, ensuring energy security is always the primary task of doing energy work well. To do a good job of keeping warm and ensuring supply, the key is to form a joint force and implement responsibilities. We must focus on ensuring that the people stay warm during the winter, make plans for dealing with extremely cold weather, maintain the bottom line of energy consumption for people’s livelihood, and never allow “power outages” to occur. (Reporter Wang Yichen)
(Wang Yichen)
[Editor in charge: Xu Ziming]