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Original title: Three factors have reduced the volatility of the A-share market, and the market is expected to rise in the process of valuation repair
The Paper reporter Tian Zhongfang and Sun Yan
On February 28, the three major stock indexes in Shanghai and Shenzhen opened lower and moved higher, showing a moderate upward trend. The closing gains were all within 1%, and the intraday amplitude also decreased.
As of the close on February 28, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.32% to 3462.31 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.32% to 13455.73 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.89% to 2881.31 points.
In this regard, market participants analyzed that market volatility has become smaller. On the one hand, in the face of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, market transactions have been relatively full before. On the other hand, the impact of geo-risks on the global market may have passed its peak. In addition, A shares are still in a favorable window period.
Central China SecuritiesAnalyst Zhang Gang analyzed that, affected by the continuous turmoil in Russia and Ukraine, the Asia-Pacific market fell across the board in early trading, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes fell rapidly in the morning. As the energy metals, non-ferrous metals, and photovoltaic equipment industries took turns to strengthen, driving the Shanghai index Stabilized and rebounded, the trading volume of the two cities was less than one trillion throughout the day, and the characteristics of the stock game reappeared.
Looking ahead,Guotai JunanFu Zhiyuan, chief investment adviser of securities, analyzed the surging news reporter that it is difficult for the market to experience another irrational sharp decline in the short term. At the same time, after the short-term panic, A shares will return to their own endogenous logic.
Fu Zhiyuan said: “Generally speaking, the A-share market is expected to climb higher in the next step in the process of valuation repair.”
Three factors cause market volatility to converge
Looking at the disk, Wind data shows that 16 of the 31 sectors under the first-level industry classification of Shenwan closed up. In terms of individual stocks, 1,974 companies in the two cities rose, 2,594 companies fell, and 151 companies were flat.
In terms of funds, Wind data shows that the net inflow of northbound funds on February 28 was 2.047 billion yuan, continuing the trend of net inflow on February 25, but a decrease from 6.385 billion yuan on February 25.
For the mild rise of the A-share market and the convergence of fluctuations, market participants believe that three factors are mainly due to: first, in the face of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the previous market transactions have been relatively sufficient; second, the impact of geo-risks on the market has peaked or has passed. 3. The market itself is still in a favorable window period.
Specifically, Fu Zhiyuan said that geopolitics itself does not dominate the trend of the stock market, and will only have a greater impact on market sentiment in the short term. Throughout the history of several major geopolitical events, there is little correlation with A shares and will not change the long-term trend of the market.
“In general, in the face of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the current market has fully traded, and its impact on A shares is gradually weakening at the margin.” Fu Zhiyuan pointed out.
Second,CITIC SecuritiesThe research report pointed out that the peak of the impact of geopolitical risks on the global market may have passed.
Again, the A-share market as a whole is still in a favorable window period.CITIC Construction InvestmentThe research report pointed out that although the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and NATO sanctions follow-up variables are still many, the stable growth of the infrastructure chain has begun to gradually materialize, and the market is still in a favorable window period.
Chuangyuan Futures also pointed out that from the denominator side, from the perspective of the Fed raising interest rates in March and my country’s implementation of a stable and loose monetary policy, it is currently in a time window of external tightening and internal relaxation, which will support A shares. . In addition, from the molecular point of view, the release of favorable domestic policies will also smooth out the volatility of the A-share market.
It is difficult for the market to fall irrationally in the short term, and the market is expected to rise
Looking ahead, with the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, what will the A-share market do?
In this regard, Fu Zhiyuan believes that at least in the short term, it is difficult for the market to experience another irrational and sharp decline. After the short-term panic caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, A shares will still return to their own endogenous logic. In general, in the process of valuation repair in the A-share market, the next step in the market will rise.
“On the one hand, the current market has fully expected the US to raise interest rates. The superimposed domestic inflation data shows that domestic demand is weak, monetary policy is still in the loose window, and there is still the possibility of lowering the reserve ratio and interest rates in the future.” Fu Zhiyuan said.
Fu Zhiyuan further pointed out that in the future, the policy of stabilizing growth will accelerate and exert force, the expected upward revision of the infrastructure and real estate chain will catalyze the process of economic recovery, and the A-share market is expected to usher in a shock recovery.
“It is expected that the Shanghai Index will be more likely to adjust slightly in the short-term, and the ChiNext market may be more likely to rebound after a short-term shock.” Zhang Gang said. It pointed out in the research report that the impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine on the A-share market may gradually weaken in the future, and investors are advised to pay close attention to changes in policies, funds and external markets.
Haitong SecuritiesThe research report also pointed out that in the context of loose domestic policies, the spring market of A shares in 2022 has not appeared, mainly due to overseas disturbances. On the one hand, there is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. On the other hand, it is the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations that continue to heat up.
“Next, the market will eventually return to the logic of its own operation. With the gradual effect of the policy of stabilizing growth, the spring market that has never been absent from A shares in the past 20 years is still worth looking forward to.” Haitong Securities further pointed out.
However, Fu Zhiyuan also emphasized that the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the economy cannot be ignored at present.
Focus on valuation repair, optimistic about the direction of stable growth
In the current market situation, what should investors do?
Fu Zhiyuan believes that the current global liquidity inflection point has been reached, and the asynchronous window period of Sino-US monetary policy is narrowing, which makes the valuation side do not have the basis for a comprehensive increase. Therefore, it is recommended that investors focus more on the direction with valuation repair.
“In general, the current market has a low risk appetite and the economic fundamentals have not yet materialized, and the value will still dominate at the stage. And the opportunities for growth, especially for track-based companies, will be picked up in the future as the market’s risk appetite picks up. Or usher in a staged rebound opportunity.” Fu Zhiyuan pointed out.
CICCThe research report also pointed out that at present, the market style is outperforming compared with the previous “steady growth”, and it is possible to gradually transition to a relatively balanced stage. Among them, the risks of growth stocks have been released in the previous sharp correction, and they are gradually entering the stage of “buying on dips”. However, although the volatility of the stable growth sector has increased, there may still be room for performance in the future.
In terms of sectors, Fu Zhiyuan said: “Standing at the moment, we should focus on the investment opportunities brought by the direction of stable growth. Among them, along the order of stable growth and the marginal improvement of profitability, investors can focus on infrastructure and consumption. .”
“Investors are advised to cautiously pay attention to investment opportunities in new energy, medical care, small metals, fertilizers and semiconductors in the short-term, and continue to pay attention to investment opportunities in low-valued blue-chip stocks in the middle line,” Zhang Gang said.
Ritar FuturesThe research report further pointed out that from a structural perspective, the chemical industry, electronics, power equipment, medicine, and machinery and equipment industries maintain a relatively high degree of prosperity, with profit expectations prevailing. Investors are advised to actively pay attention to high-performance undervalued sectors and high-quality stocks that exceed expectations. .
In terms of operation, CICC pointed out that from the reaction of this geopolitical incident, it can be seen that without the support of confident judgment, excessive pursuit of market trends is also “dangerous”, which may lead to “loss of both ends”.
“For example, the U.S. stock market rose sharply after a sharp fall, gold fell sharply after a sharp rise, and the U.S. bond interest rate dropped and then rebounded, all of which reversed repeatedly in just three days. Therefore, in this case, if the timing cannot be accurately grasped, It is better to stay put or use some tools to hedge the exposure.” CICC advises investors.
Wei Zhichao, chief economist of Capital Securities, also believes that under the current round of geopolitical shocks, the A-share market has not adjusted much, so there is limited room for repair. It suggested in the research report that this week, it can gradually increase the position to buy the bottom, and if there is a further decline, it can be added as appropriate.
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Responsible editor: Zhang Yi