MILANO – Spotlights on Tim in Piazza Affari, after the acceleration of the weekend during which a “friendly” purchase proposal from Kkr, the American infrastructure fund with which a collaboration in FiberCop, the company of the last mile of the network of the former monopolist. Kkr has put in place a proposal of 0.505 euros per share for the whole Italian company, although still in the preliminary phase, and obviously the market is taking note: Tim, which has overheated since the pre-opening auction, is then over in the volatility auction among record volumes of orders, to return to trading with a gain of around 23%, at € 0.4277 per share: this is in any case a level below Kkr’s proposal. The effect not only pushes Tim but also helps the contact partner Vivendi: Vincent Bolloré’s group on the Paris Stock Exchange has earned almost 3 percentage points since its very first bids, at the highest levels of the last two months.
Meanwhile, politics also takes the field on the dossier. To ask in no uncertain terms the dismissal of the current one from Luigi Gubitosi is the leader of the League, Matteo Salvini. “Tim, and therefore Italy, need a partner and an industrial plan that enhance and strengthen the company, not a financial operation that risks leading to a stew of such an important reality for the country. Furthermore, given the not brilliant results in recent months, the change in leadership hoped for by many seems to be a topic that can no longer be postponed “, he said when asked by Affaritaliani.it.
The trade union front is also overheated. In a letter signed by Slc Cgil Fistel Cisl and Uilcom Uil sent to the managers of the company Luciano Sale, Human Resources, Organization & Real Estate and Giovanni Pipita Trade Union Relations, the telecommunications workers’ organizations have started the legal procedures “for the proclamation the state of unrest and the strike initiatives in support of the dispute in question in all the Italian companies of the Tim Group “. The reasons indicate: corporate uncertainties and possible umpteenth change of ownership, defense of the occupational perimeters and business recovery plan
The reactions of analysts
Waiting to know the response of the first shareholder Vivendi to Kkr’s offer on Tim, the Stock Exchange speculates. The price of the takeover bid (for now only in a non-binding and indicative expression of interest) at 50.5 cents implies a premium of 46% compared to the closing date on Friday but the fund “could be forced to rise” comment the analysts. “The offer is well above the average of recent deals which is 20%, but only 7% higher than the 2021 peak of the Tim share on the stock market – commented an analyst at theAnsa – Vivendi could push for more, given the average price of 1 euro per share paid for its 24% stake “and aim for 83 cents per share. Meanwhile, Hsbc raises its judgment and recommends buying. Consob it watches but it is in the expectation that the prices today rise, going to align themselves with the offer.
“The statements of the government are currently favorable. The reaction of the political parties is instead in our opinion the key point to be evaluated, as well as that of the shareholders”, is the first comment of Ride sim on the latest developments. “Vivendi (23.9%) today holds a de facto veto power on extraordinary transactions – observes the sim on the position of the current first shareholder of the telecommunications group – we think it may be tempted to accept the offer by negotiating the best possible exit. However so far he has commented that he is unlikely to support the offer. ” If Cdp (9.8%) accepted Kkr’s offer, “it would eliminate the strategic impasse of having a position in both Tim and Open Fiber, remaining exposed only to Open Fiber and maintaining the opportunity to relaunch the single network project , especially if Kkr were in favor of a split in the network or were forced to give up control of the network for the golden power. ” Equita is skeptical about the possibility that other investment funds could intervene on the Tim dossier (we talked about Cvd, Advent): “We think that competitive offers are unlikely given the complexity of the situation, even if other funds are evaluating the dossier and therefore are not to be excluded, also in light of the Government’s open position “.
Also from the Anglo-Saxon bank Hsbc take note of the latest news by raising the valuation on the stock to “buy” (I recommend buying in view of increases). “Kkr’s approach – write the analysts – comes after months of intense operational and strategic uncertainty”; moreover, “the path towards a formal offer may not be certain or fast, but we think that the offer is articulated and credible and should trigger reactions from interested parties and counterparties”. Also for Hsbc Vivendi “whose 23.9% stake in telecom italia was built at an average price that we estimate to be over one euro per share, may not necessarily find the offer attractive”. Vivendi “may eventually have to decide whether to support Kkr’s plan (assuming an offer is formalized) or oppose it; in the latter case, vivendi may have to present an alternative plan”.
“Our advice is to handle with care”, writes Fabio Pavan in today’s report by Mediobanca Securities (it has a “neutral” recommendation with a target of € 0.44) underlining that the most cautious way to bet on the stock is that of savings shares which offer good protection by virtue of the expected dividend yield. For the analyst, Kkr’s offer confirms the private equity appetite for the telecommunications sector and not only for infrastructural activities, while with regard to the characteristics of the offer it must be borne in mind that it is “indicative and not binding”, that a four-week due diligence will be required and the same price will be paid to the ordinary and savings shares. Mediobanca securities also reports that attention will have to be paid to the possible repercussions on Tim’s two significant shareholdings: Tim Brasil, 67% controlled, and Inwit of which tim is a shareholder through the Daphne 3 vehicle.
Politics takes a stand. Misiani (Pd): “Employment and national security at the center”
The game involves not only the financial field, but also the political one and union representation. The government is called into question because Tim is a strategic asset (in addition to guarding the home network, and as is known the single company project with Open Fiber has remained in the icebox, it also has Sparkle with its international cables) and also because the CDP is the second shareholder behind Vivendi’s French. The defense of the occupation and the development of the network are the essential points for a government that – informed of the developments already on Thursday – does not however have an a priori closure on the operation. Indeed, the interest of foreign investors in Italy is well received by Palazzo Chigi, but there are many pieces of the puzzle that must fall into place.
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The game also affects the union: the secretary of the CGIL, Maurizio Landini, “in a strategic sector such as that of telecommunications, the Italian state cannot simply suffer the logic of the market”. He said this in an interview with La Repubblica in which he argued the need for “an industrial plan aimed at building the single network without excluding the use of golden power if the Kkr project were to be in contrast with the industrial and employment interest of the Country”. The risk of a stew, in his opinion, “must be averted. We need an overview”.
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And from the political front there are other reactions. “Tlc networks are a strategic asset of the country and a key point of the PNRR. For this reason, Tim’s future must be followed by the government with the utmost attention, dealing with Parliament and putting employment and national security at the center”, he writes. on Twitter the senator of the Democratic Party and responsible for Economy and Finance in the Pd national secretariat, Antonio Misiani. The Government “should intervene and complete the process for the single network, but there is not only the question of Telecom. I am also thinking of what is happening in Generali, where Mediobanca has been the Trojan horse of the French in Italy for years. . Del Vecchio and Caltagirone are waging a courageous battle against bad management in Generali and Mediobanca. The Italian banking system and CDP should help them “, says the leader of Action, instead. Carlo Calenda.
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