It weakens the lira Turkey in the aftermath of the re-election of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Türkiye, with investors wondering whether it will let go of the national economy. According to Wall Street there is a path of weakening of the Turkish currency ahead, with Morgan Stanley which believes that it could soon reach 26 to the dollar, slipping further to 28 by the end of the year, if Erdogan continues to rein in the central bank with his unconventional policies and therefore low interest rates despite galloping inflation. For Wells Fargo by the end of the quarter it will be at 23 (while today it fluctuates at 20).
In a day without some trading centers (USA and Great Britain), the markets then look with relief at the easing of the US debt ceiling: the president Biden eh Republicans they say that the agreement found will be ratified in time. Of course, stress factors remain for investors: from the possibility that the Fed will continue with a new rate hike at its next meeting, to the fact that in any case there will be an invasion of US debt securities given that the Treasury has to rebuild its buffer liquid assets.
The profits of Chinese industries are falling
The profits of industrial companies in China continue to slow down in the first four months of the year, recording -20.6% on the same period of 2022, a fractional improvement on the -21.4% of the first quarter. The figure, released by the National Statistics Office, underlines the cooling of demand and the consolidation phase of production deflation. While in April alone, on the other hand, the drop was 18.2%, compared to -19.2% in March.
Positive futures for Europe
The markets seem destined to react well to the provisional agreement reached between the White House and the Republicans to raise the debt ceiling and avoid a default in the United States. Futures of the Frankfurt Dax rise by 0.12%, those of the Euro Stoxx 50 improve by 0.18%, while the future of the Madrid Ibex does even better with +0.99%. US markets will be closed today for Memorial Day and UK markets will be closed for the Spring Bank Holiday.
Oil on the rise in Asian markets
Oil prices rose in Asia, on the back of the agreement in principle on the debt ceiling and in anticipation of the start of the summer car travel season in the United States, which will boost fuel consumption. The quotations of Wti rise by 0.85% to 73.29 dollars a barrel, those of Brent mark a +0.75% to 77.56 dollars.