Home » Top ten brokerage strategies: “Policy bottom” + “market bottom” has appeared, A shares will gradually stabilize and enter the medium-term upward channel_Oriental Fortune Network

Top ten brokerage strategies: “Policy bottom” + “market bottom” has appeared, A shares will gradually stabilize and enter the medium-term upward channel_Oriental Fortune Network

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Top ten brokerage strategies: “Policy bottom” + “market bottom” has appeared, A shares will gradually stabilize and enter the medium-term upward channel_Oriental Fortune Network


  CITIC Securities: The peak of the impact of external risks has passed, and A shares will gradually stabilize and enter a medium-term upward channel

A-shares have returned to the fundamentals-driven normal from emotion-driven, and will enter a critical period of policy force; the epidemic has had a greater impact on the economy in the past two weeks, and the necessity and urgency of stabilizing growth policies has rapidly increased. The policy mix will be gradually rolled out and a synergy will be formed; the economy will be gradually repaired in the second quarter, and A-shares will gradually stabilize and enter a medium-term upward channel.

First of all, the impact of this round of domestic epidemics is expected to be mainly concentrated in March and April, which will have a greater actual impact on the economy, or drag down the first quarter.GDPThe year-on-year growth rate was 0.5 to 1 percentage point. Secondly, the necessity and urgency of the policy to stabilize growth has rapidly increased, and it is expected to make a second effort. Options include: increasing the strength of the real estate policy,currencyThe total amount of policies and tools are renewed, the fiscal tax and fee reduction and the implementation of expenditure projects are accelerated, the infrastructure investment is accelerated to form a physical workload, and the local government has implemented a rescue plan for micro-subjects. Finally, the peak of the impact of external risks has passed, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has become increasingly clear, and the regulatory impact of Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks will not change their mid-term recovery trend.

  In terms of configuration, it is recommended to grasp the key window for the second effort to stabilize the growth policy, closely follow the relevant main lines, focus on the balanced layout of the “two lows”, and welcome the resonance of value and growth in the second quarter.

  Haitong Securities: Steady growth is expected to drive market recovery

① The market is currently worried about three major concerns: the narrowing of the interest rate gap between China and the United States leads to capital outflow, the rise in commodity prices under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine pushes up inflation, and the domestic epidemic has repeatedly affected the economy. ②The worst time for us to judge the negative factors may be gradually over, the market adjustment time and space have become obvious, the valuation has been low, and the steady growth is expected to drive the market recovery. ③ The configuration focuses on the main line of stable growth, such as photovoltaic wind power and data center cloud computing in new infrastructure, and pays attention to undervalued financial real estate.

  Guotai Junansecurities: A-shares have not yet reached the time for trend reversal, and the short-term market fluctuates sideways

Earnings are expected to decline + discount rate is expected to rise. A-shares have not yet reached the time to reverse the trend, and the index will still fluctuate in a range. From the end of the policy to the end of the market, do a good job of defensive counterattack, rather than trend counterattack. From a strategic point of view, spring will eventually come, and we have to prepare for it. But the premise is that investors still need to be defensive and wait until demand-side policies and fundamental expectations are clear.Maintain an “empty cup” mentality, the short-term market is still dominated by sideways fluctuations, 3100-3400. At the same time, another important factor that cannot be ignored is the level of transaction structure, and investors have no riskinterest rateThe rise of A shares is making A shares enter the shrinking game.

The current logic of stock selection should focus on stocks with low risk characteristics, focus on the intersection of low valuation and profitability improvement, and focus on industry selection on consumption and cyclical sectors. Specifically, there are three directions: 1) Inflation & high dividends: coal, chemical resource products; 2) To G-end or public investment direction: photovoltaic, wind power, power operation, power grid, construction, etc.; 3) Dilemma reversal and profitability Certainty: live pigs and liquor, pay attention to the bottom elasticity of midstream consumer building materials and light industry in Q2.

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  CITIC Construction Investmentsecurities: From strategic defense to strategic stalemate

In the short term, optimism will continue, and the market in April is expected to recover from the extreme disappointment with the policy and look forward to the new policy setting of the Politburo meeting. In the medium term, the market still faces challenges from economic downturn, global inflation and Sino-US relations, and the view remains neutral.

Looking forward to April, we believe that low valuations may be relatively dominant in terms of style, and industry allocation can be mainly carried out in three directions: 1) Global inflation cannot be falsified in the short term, but varieties with hard supply gaps are more recommended, and the recommended odds Higher agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (planting chain, pig cycle that accelerates production capacity reduction due to rising feed costs), pay attention to coal/aluminum; 2) There are still policy expectations related to stable growth in the short term: real estate leaders, city commercial banks; 3) Growth denominator There is still pressure on the end of the market. It is preferable to choose photovoltaics whose molecular end is still booming in April and whose production schedule has increased month-on-month, as well as military and pharmaceutical industries with high cost performance and high molecular end (CXO/in vitro detection/vaccine/traditional Chinese medicine), pay attention to the tight balance between supply and demand and still have price increases in the first quartersemiconductormaterial, IGBT.

  Industrial Securities: “Policy bottom” + “market bottom” has appeared, the index fluctuated and consolidated, and investor sentiment was gradually restored

“Policy bottom” + “market bottom” has appeared. In a high probability situation, the market will enter a period of index shock consolidation and investor sentiment gradually recovering. However, in the second quarter, we still need to pay attention to the following potential exceeding expectations and risk points: The possibility of exceeding expectations is more from domestic policy relaxation: 1) “Stable growth” is still a “hard requirement”, and there is room for relaxation in currency and credit in the future and motivation. 2) The risks of real estate enterprises are expected to be “demolition” one after another, and more favorable liquidity and policy support are also needed. 3) The decision-making level has a clear determination to maintain the stability of the capital market. Risk points and uncertainties are more from overseas: 1) The expectation of the Fed to raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet will still curb risk appetite. 2) While liquidity is tightening, US stock earnings are also facing downward revisions. If U.S. stocks fluctuate sharply again, it may be a drag on A-shares. 3) The regulatory impact of Chinese concept stocks is also unclear, or there may be further disturbances. 4) The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still continuing, and global commodity prices have rebounded again recently, and it is difficult for global stagflation concerns to quickly subside.

Investment strategy: “Xiao Gaoxin” + “Big Finance” and “Dumbbell” configuration: On the one hand, in medicine, computer, and “new semi-military”, which have been adjusted more, search for targets that meet the characteristics of “Xiao Gaoxin” from the bottom up; On the other hand, pay attention to sectors such as financial real estate, new and old infrastructure that benefit from the expectation of “steady growth”. In the long run, we will continue to focus on the five major directions of technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) Next-generation information and communication technologies (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5G, etc.), 3) High-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools,robotadvanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) Biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO,medical instrumentsand diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space stations, space shuttles, etc.).

  Huaan Securities: Oversold and rebound can still be expected, the scenery should be long-term

In April, it is expected that risk appetite will remain in a relatively sluggish state, and it is difficult to improve significantly. The core is still the risk caused by the acceleration of the external Fed’s monetary policy tightening and the concern about the strength of internal growth stabilization policies, especially the real estate control policy. The Politburo meeting in late April is expected to maintain the overall tone of the Central Economic Work Conference as a whole. At the end of April, the market may again worry about the Fed raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet. It is advisable to take a long view and exchange time for space. The current A-shares have fallen back to a lower valuation and have a good medium and long-term investment performance ratio.

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From a medium and long-term perspective, we are still optimistic about the third stage of growth style (mainline + diffusion), stable growth (new and old infrastructure, real estate,Bank) and the three main lines of consumption recovery (medicine, price increase line, travel chain), but in the short-term dimension, under the frequent switching of market hot spots, we recommend that the configuration should be more refined, specifically: 1) The short-term cost-effectiveness of the stable growth chain is relatively high. High, can continue to participate in the upstream and downstream of real estate,BankAs well as new and old infrastructure and other market. 2) In the main line of consumption, in the short term, you can continue to participate in the opportunities related to medicine and the main line of price increase (planting industry/chemical fertilizer), and the travel chain (airport/hotel/catering, etc.) will focus on attention before the inflection point of the epidemic. 3) For the growth style, it is recommended to adjust the main growth lines of power equipment, electronics and other industries every time.

  CICC: It is still in the grinding stage in the short term, keep patience

Looking ahead, we believe that the short-term market may still be repeated, but the more targeted efforts of the “steady growth” policy may also gradually bring about an improvement in fundamental expectations. The stage similar to the sharp decline in the previous period may have ended. Still in the grinding stage. Combined with the recent market-adjusted valuation, which has gradually approached the level at the bottom of December 2018 and March 2020, we believe that in the medium term, market opportunities outweigh risks. In the future, if it cooperates with market transactions, it may further shrink to around 700 billion yuan. Cooling indicators may be more helpful in judging the emergence of the market’s stage bottom.

Currently focusing on three directions: 1) Potentially supportive areas for policy efforts, including infrastructure and real estate demand-related industry chains (building materials, construction, home appliances, home furnishing, etc.),brokerageFinance, etc.; 2) Midstream and downstream consumption with more adjustments in 2021, low valuation, and still bright medium and long-term prospects, choose stocks from the bottom up, including home appliances, light industry and home furnishing, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine etc.; 3) Manufacturing growth sectors, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardwaresemiconductorWait, the risks have been released, and the opportunity will be turned to wait for the marginal mitigation of overseas “inflation” risks.

  Anshinsecurities: April in the world is the time of gold rush

Overall, on March 16, when the A-shares continued to plummet and approached the key point, a special meeting of the Financial Stability Committee was held to further consolidate the “policy bottom”. We are firm on the point of view that we have put forward before: seeing the dragon in the field in March, we have confidence in the 3000-point support level of the Shanghai Composite Index. At the same time, we maintain the previous prediction of the end of the current round of the economy in the second quarter. The inflection point of the fundamental improvement of the molecular end is expected to be approaching, and the negative impact of external factors (Russia-Ukraine conflict, Fed rate hike, global inflation) has weakened, and the equity market is similar. The possibility of entering a unilateral downturn in 2012 is low, and the A shares may be in the deep in the second quarter, looking forward to “nikeDon’t look at the clouds and cover your eyes, and you should look at the scenery. If you stretch your perspective, you can see the dragon in the field. “April in the world is the time of gold rush”, and now it is a strategic opportunity to allocate high-quality A-share listed companies.

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For the structural level, in the grinding stage from “policy bottom → market bottom”, the market is facing the suppression of economic downturn and policy uncertainty, and value-based and counter-cyclical industries (such as infrastructure, real estate) and weak-cycle industries outperform growth-oriented industries. industry. However, after going through the bottom-grinding stage, the risk appetite has rebounded, the market will return to the growth style, and the high risk appetite sector will perform better. Corresponding to the current four main lines: stable growth, high prosperity, post-pandemic recovery, and global inflation. We are currently in the process of “stable growth and high prosperity”, and our recommended configuration is still stable growth, high prosperity > global inflation > post-pandemic recovery. In addition, in our recent communication with market investors, the order of preference is: growth, medicine, cycle> real estate, weighted blue-chip (finance), breeding> old infrastructure, consumption.

  China Merchants Securities: Demand grows steadily, profits go upstream

Profits and exports of industrial enterprises in January-February show that my country’s overall demand is relatively resilient, but under the background of high upstream prices, cost pressures are prominent. From the perspective of sub-sectors, profits have been redistributed between the upper and middle reaches, and profits have begun to concentrate upstream. In the follow-up, once the steady growth starts to exert obvious force, in the context of tight supply and low inventory, profits will further gather upstream, and the midstream will be further squeezed. Therefore, in the context of this year’s steady growth, we should pay more attention to the most upstream links in each industrial chain. Pay attention to the core industry and individual stock selection logic of “demand from steady growth and profit to upstream”.

  Yuekai Securities: The shock recovery is expected to continue, and the current window recommends focusing on individual stocks and light indexes

Since the 21st century, A-shares have suffered five consecutive sharp drops, namely: the share reform from 2004 to 2005 + policy tightening and sharp fall; the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 + policy tightening and sharp fall; the economic momentum switch from 2011 to 2012 + Policy tightening and plummeting; deleveraging + killing valuation plummeting in 2015-2016; Sino-US trade friction + policy tightening plummeting in 2018. By comparing with the historical “big bottom”, we select four levels and eleven indicators to observe. There is an important conclusion –The market’s response to fundamentals is “from fast to slow”, and for logical deductions, it is “from slow to fast”.

Maintaining the recent view, we believe that the shock recovery is expected to continue, but the current window recommends heavy stocks and light indices, the first quarterly reportperformanceDuring the window period, emphasis is placed on the verification of fundamentals, and three main lines are laid out in the market outlook: 1) The main line of steady growth: screening low valuation and high dividend cash flow targets. In the direction of the sector, the infrastructure and real estate chain of the “old economy” kinetic energy, and the new energy, integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, 5G, etc. of the “new economy” kinetic energy are worthy of attention. 2) Main line of inflation: Under the global stagflation pattern, it is expected that commodities such as energy will remain at a high level. 3) Main line of cost performance: screening growth targets with PEG<1. It is expected that the wind power, photovoltaic, and new energy vehicle sectors will have policy plans in the future, and the industrial track will develop long slopes and thick snow. It is recommended to pay attention to the verification of fundamentals, focus on the situation of the annual report and the first quarter report, beware of poor performance expectations, and select some cost-effective growth targets with PEG<1.

(Article source: Broker China)

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