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U.S. experts believe that the situation in Ukraine may exacerbate global energy supply shortages – yqqlm

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U.S. experts believe that the situation in Ukraine may exacerbate global energy supply shortages – yqqlm

People walk past a petrol station in London, England, on February 25. With the sudden escalation of the situation in Ukraine, the European oil and gas market prices have experienced huge fluctuations.Xinhua News Agency

Global stock markets and commodity markets were in turmoil after major oil producer Russia launched a military operation in Ukraine. The international benchmark oil price once exceeded $105 a barrel on the 24th, reaching the highest level since 2014. The new sanctions against Russia announced by U.S. President Biden that day did not target Russia’s oil and gas exports, and oil prices subsequently fell back to $99 a barrel.

Several U.S. industry experts predict that oil prices will remain high this year. US media reported that geopolitical risks “may lead to higher global energy prices or exacerbate global supply shortages”, posing risks to the economic growth outlook.

Ed Hirsch, an energy scholar at the University of Houston, believes that Russia can not only cut off gas supplies to Europe, but also has the ability to cut off its oil and gas exports to the rest of the world. The worsening situation in Ukraine could lead to a significant rise in oil prices.

Katerina Filipenko, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie Consulting, pointed out that Europe usually stores natural gas in summer for winter use. The sanctions on Russian oil and gas may be tolerated in Europe in the short term, but may lead to an energy crisis in Europe in the medium and long term. .

Texas is the largest oil-producing state in the United States and the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas in the United States. Oil and gas producers in Texas and even the U.S. could fill some of the void if Russia restricts or halts gas exports to Europe, said Carl Ingham, an economist at the Texas Energy Producers Union. Higher oil prices also mean more profits for Texas oil and gas producers due to increased demand, which is expected to boost the state’s oil and gas industry in the short term.

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But many analysts here believe that this boost will be short-term for now, and energy consumers around the world will pay for the increase in energy costs. Eric Lewis, an economist at Texas A&M University, said high gas prices “are a bad thing for people who are paying their electricity bills, gas bills or people who drive a car.”

Gabriel Collins, an energy affairs researcher at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, said the U.S. would hurt global energy consumers if the U.S. sanctioned Russia’s oil and gas industry through financial means or jointly with allies. If the U.S. government targets Rosneft, it “will target their economic center of gravity, but it may also target the wallets of their own consumers.”

Biden previously said that while sanctioning Russia, he would try his best to avoid having an excessive impact on the U.S. domestic economy, especially energy prices.

Well-known energy expert and vice chairman of Essen Huamai, Daniel Yerkin, recently wrote in the “Wall Street Journal” that although in January this year, the United States‘ LNG exports to Europe exceeded Russia’s pipeline shipments for the first time in history. But if Russia cuts off gas exports to Europe completely, and U.S. gas exports are not enough to make up the shortfall, Europe will be left in a bind, having to restart coal and nuclear facilities to generate electricity.

Earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook report predicting that U.S. crude oil production will average 12 million barrels per day in 2022, an increase of 760,000 barrels per day from 2021. The report predicts that international crude oil prices will remain high through 2023 and push the average daily production of U.S. crude oil to a record 12.6 million barrels.

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(Originally titled “Summary: U.S. experts believe that the situation in Ukraine may exacerbate global energy supply shortages”)


Editor: Qin Qin



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