Home » U.S. gasoline prices plummeted in December, electrolytic aluminum production capacity may drop|United States_Sina Finance_Sina.com

U.S. gasoline prices plummeted in December, electrolytic aluminum production capacity may drop|United States_Sina Finance_Sina.com

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U.S. gasoline prices plummeted in December, electrolytic aluminum production capacity may drop|United States_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Source: Hualong Futures Author: Hualong Futures

Research report text

Shanghai Aluminum

Macro: According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in December 2022, the ex-factory price of industrial producers nationwide decreased by 0.7% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month; the purchase price of industrial producers increased by 0.3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. For the whole year of 2022, the ex-factory price of industrial producers will increase by 4.1% over the previous year, and the purchase price of industrial producers will increase by 6.1%.

Fundamentals: On January 12, the average price of 1# electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Market was 18,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,280 yuan/ton, 18,570 yuan/ton, 18,090 yuan/ton, 18,060 yuan/ton. On January 12, the premium and discount of electrolytic aluminum remained at around 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. On January 11, the LME aluminum inventory was 413,700 tons, a decrease of 5,175 tons from the previous trading day, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts accounted for 52.73%.

Outlook: In December, U.S. gasoline prices fell sharply, and the growth rate of CPI slowed down year-on-year. The inflation rate in Tokyo, Japan has reached 4% for the first time since 1982, and the Bank of Japan’s monetary easing policy is difficult to maintain. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum may decline, and the demand for electrolytic aluminum is still weak.

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Action suggestion: wait and see.

Shanghai lead

Fundamentals: On January 12, the average price of 1# lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Market was 15,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 from the previous trading day; the spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin were 15,000 yuan/ton, 15,300 yuan/ton, and 15,400 yuan/ton respectively Yuan / ton. On January 12, the discount for 1# lead remained at around -85 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 from the previous trading day. On January 11, the LME lead inventory was 21,850 tons, a decrease of 1,525 tons from the previous trading day , the cancellation of warehouse receipts accounted for 55.03%.

Outlook: The lead export is expected to grow, the supply side has little change, the lead processing fee remains stable, and the demand for lead-acid batteries is weak. After the Shanghai lead fell back, it entered the shock range again.

Action suggestion: wait and see.

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