The banking sector of Piazza Affari has paid duty in the last sessions between the political crisis in Italy and the growing uncertainty linked to a possible recession. According to Mediobanca Securities analysts, the underperformance of banks “has just begun”. “What could have gone wrong is going wrong and rates are of little relief,” he says Andrea Filtri, Mediobanca’s co-Head of European Equity Research, who lists the various points that tip the scales towards a negative judgment. First of all, the political crisis in Italy should fuel volatility and uncertainty until the end of the year, putting the implementation of the PNRR at risk. Secondly, the BTP-BUND spread has peaked in the area of 230bps, as the discretion of the ECB linked to the activation of the TPI failed to calm the markets.
After the 10% underperformance of ITA banks compared to EU peers since the beginning of the war, Mediobanca’s view remains cautious with Underperform on Intesa Sanpaolo, Neutral on Unicredit, Credem and Banca Popolare di Sondrio, while it is Outperform on Banco BPM by virtue of of the M&A appeal.