Days of fire for Italian banks: UniCredit, Intesa SanPaolo, Mps, Banco BPM, Bper and others will in fact release the accounts for the second quarter and the first half from July 27 to the beginning of August. Italian banks will announce their balance sheet results right in the midst of concerns on the trend of BTP rates and therefore of the BTP-Bund spread, yet another government crisis that culminated last week in resignation of Mario Draghi, and following the double announcement of the ECB, which raised rates by 50 basis points and also launched the TPI anti-spread shield.
For Italian banks, the key phase of the quarterly reports will begin on Wednesday 27 July, the day after tomorrow, with UniCredit, the bank led by Andrea Orcel, which will publish the quarterly report; Friday 29 July will be the turn of Intesa SanPaolo and Mediobanca. Next week to remove the veil from the accounts they will be Banco BPM (3 August) and Mps, Credem and Bper (4 August).
Watch out foroutlook on the banking sector and on individual Italian banks signed Barclays, which obviously also recalls the grain of exposure that institutions continue to have towards Russia, in a context characterized by the war between the Putin’s Russia and Zelensky’s Ukraine:
“The Italian political situation and, even before that, the possible risks (and tail risks) that arise from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict (due to Italy’s dependence on Russia’s gas, among other factors), they mean that sovereign debt concerns are back in the spotlight ”.
About that, “Figures 13 and 14 show “Fragmentation” which is affecting Italy, which is then compared in Figures 15 and 16 to similar stress indicators that concern other European countries ”. We therefore speak in this case of doom loop, or of a deadly embrace between Italian banks and the BTPs to which they are exposed “.
Intesa SanPaolo: Barclays’ expectations
Turning to the individual banks, Barclays expects Intesa SanPaolo to make an adjusted net profit of the bank led by Carlo Messina up in 2022 from the previous € 2.973 billion to € 3.110 billion, with an upward revision of 5%; Intesa SanPaolo’s outlook on EPS on an adjusted basis for 2022 it was left unchanged at 16 cents per share. 
For the second quarter of 2022 Intesa’s adjusted net profit is expected at 881 million, down 14% on a quarterly basis compared to 1.028 billion in the first quarter and 16% on an annual basis. 
Per the second quarter of 2022 l‘Intesa’s adjusted net profit is expected at 881 million, down 14% on a quarterly basis compared to 1.028 billion in the first quarter and 16% on an annual basis. The turnover is expected at 4.647 billion in the second quarter, down 7% on a quarterly basis compared to the previous 5.012 billion, and 2% on an annual basis. Net interest income is forecast at 1.986 billion, up 2% on a quarterly basis compared to 1.956 in the first quarter and unchanged on an annual basis. Gross operating profit is expected at € 2.447 billion, down 16% from € 2.910 billion in the previous quarter and down 3% on an annual basis. Net operating profit is expected at 1.458 billion, down 32% from 2.148 billion in the first quarter and 14% on an annual basis. Earnings that include insurance activities are expected to fall to € 5.050 billion from the previous € 5.414 billion and down 3% on an annual basis.
UniCredit: Barclays estimates for 2022 and Q2
Regarding UniCreditBarclays has improved itsadjusted net profit in 2022 from € 2.542 billion to € 2.983 billion, with an upgrade of 17%; the outlook on eps on an adjusted basis also improved by 17%, from 1.23 to 1.44 for the second quarter. For the second quarter Barclays estimates for UniCredit are a net profit of € 1.133 billion, compared to 247 million in net profits in the first quarter, with a jump of 359% on a quarterly basis and 10% on an annual basis. The outlook onadjusted net profit is € 1.040 billion, up 391% on a quarterly basis compared to 212 million euros in the first quarter and 14% on an annual basis. The total turnover of UniCredit it is expected at € 4.488 billion, down 11% on a quarterly basis from the previous € 5.017 billion, and up 2% on an annual basis. UniCredit’s operating profit is expected at € 2.090 billion, down 22% from € 2.676 billion in the first quarter and 8% year on year. Net operating income is expected at 1.658 billion, up 19% on a quarterly basis compared to the previous 1.392 billion in the first quarter and up 5% on an annual basis. UniCredit provisions to cover charges and risks they are expected to be negative at € 222 million, down 69% on a quarterly basis and up 4% on an annual basis. UniCredit’s net and other fees are expected to be $ 1.699 billion, down 8% from $ 1.843 billion in the first quarter and unchanged on a monthly basis.
Mps: Barclays peggiora outlook 2022
The estimates on Mps signed by Barclays are a net profit for the whole of 2022 equal to 336 million euros; the forecasts have been revised down from the previous expected net profit of 351 million. L’outlook on the adjusted eps of Monte dei Paschi di Siena was worsened by 44% to 6 cents, compared to the previous 10 cents per share expected for the Sienese bank throughout 2022. For the second quarter, estimates are of a net profit of 28 million, up 192% on a quarterly basis compared to 10 million in the first quarter and down 66% on an annual basis; net profit on an adjusted basis is expected to be 47 million euros, down by 59% on a quarterly basis and by 61% on an annual basis. Total MPS turnover on a net basis is estimated at 723 million, down 8% compared to 783 million in the previous quarter and 2% on an annual basis. The interest margin is expected at 329 million, up 2% on a quarterly basis compared to the previous 323 million and an 8% improvement on an annual basis.
Bper: maxi upward revision on adjusted eps
On B for le Barclays’ expectations on full year net profit were revised upwards by 6% from the previously expected 260 million to 276 million, while the upgrade on the adjusted eps in 2022 was subject to a maxi upward revision, equal to + 132%, from the 19 cents previously expected to 43 cents. For the second quarter specifically it is expected gross operating profit for Bper of 275 million, down 16% compared to 325 million in the first quarter and unchanged on an annual basis. Net operating profit is estimated at 152 million, down 24% compared to the previous 200 million and down 16% on an annual basis. Net profit is expected at 107 million, compared to 113 million in the first quarter. Turnover is expected at 839 million, down 5% from 884 million in the first quarter and unchanged on an annual basis. Bper’s interest margin is expected at 384 million, up by 2% compared to 376 million in the first quarter.
Barclays outlook on Mediobanca
For Mediobanca is expected for 2022 a net profit of € 1.009 billion, in increase of 3% compared to the 983 million previously expected by Barclays, against an eps also improved by 3% from 1.14 to 1.17 per share. Mediobanca is expected for the second quarter a net profit of 181 million, down by 5% compared to 190 million in the first quarter, and an adjusted net profit of 206 million euros, down by 15% compared to 243 million in the first quarter. The Mediobanca turnover is expected at 677 million, down 2% compared to 688 million in the first quarter and up 2% on an annual basis. Net interest income is expected to decline by 1% on a quarterly basis to 370 million, up 8% on an annual basis.
Outlook Barclays su Banco BPM
L’Banco BPM’s net profit for the whole of 2022 is expected to be 540 million euros, con a 5% upward revision by Barclays from the previously anticipated € 516 million. The adjusted eps for 2022 was revised upwards from 34 cents previously expected to 36 cents. For the second quarter Banco BPM’s net profit is expected at 191 million euros, compared to the previous 178 million in the first quarter, while adjusted net profit is forecast at 184 million, compared to 175 million in the first quarter. The Banco BPM’s total turnover is expected at 1.101 billion, down by 7% compared to 1.186 billion in the first three months of the year and by 8% on an annual basis. Banco BPM’s interest margin is expected to rise by 1% to 518 million, compared to the previous 512 million, and down by 1% on an annual basis.
Barclays’ view on Credem
About Credem, Barclays improved its full 2022 net profit outlook on an adjusted basis by 14% from the previous 200 million to 227 million. The estimates on adjusted eps were also raised by 14% from the previous 59 to 67 cents per share. For the second quarter, the expectations are a net profit of 60 million euros, down by 22% on a quarterly basis and by 19% on an annual basis. Credem’s turnover is expected at 327 million, down 8% compared to 355 million in the first quarter but up 8% on an annual basis.