Home Business Unicredit: what to expect from 3rd quarter accounts and analyst estimates on future dividends. Orcel will have to stop machine gun questions about MPS

Unicredit: what to expect from 3rd quarter accounts and analyst estimates on future dividends. Orcel will have to stop machine gun questions about MPS

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Strong expectations for the accounts of Unicredit, the first bank in Piazza Affari to take the test of the accounts in the third quarter of 2021. The board of directors met today with publication of the results and conference call scheduled for tomorrow 28 October before the start of the markets with a subsequent conference call of CEO Andrea Orcel. Since last quarter, the bank in Piazza Gae Aulenti has decided to bring forward the presentation of quarterly accounts by one week by virtue of the simplification, streamlining and strengthening of the processes wanted by Orcel.

Quarterly numbers faded into the background after the sensational breakdown of negotiations with the Treasury to take over Mps. And MPS will inevitably be at the center of the questions that will come to Orcel, with investors waiting for the CEO to grasp any signs of openness to the possibility that dialogue with the government can be reopened.

Preview of 3rd quarter accounts and full 2021 estimates

The consensus of analysts published on the bank’s website indicates a net profit of 825 million euros (median value) from 692 million in the same quarter of 2020. Equita’s estimates are more conservative, indicating a profit of 766 million. Total revenues are seen at 4.26 bn, with net operating profit at 1.33 bn euros and net commissions at 1.624 bn.

At the level of capital ratios, Cet1 is seen to settle at 15.3%.

Looking at the whole of 2021, the consensus indicates a net profit of 3.16 billion euros (before the mid-year accounts the forecast was 2.52 billion),
intermediation margin of € 17.48 billion and net operating profit of € 5.63 billion.

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On the dividend front, analysts still have a certain variety of assessments on the size of the 2022 coupon (relating to the 2021 financial year): a coupon of € 0.45 per share is indicated (the range goes from € 0.18 to € 0.54 ).

The buy on the title is increasing

Among the analysts, the Buy (Overweight, Outperform, Add, Accumulate) on Unicredit shares are equal to 67% of the total (three months ago before the accounts of the 2nd quarter they were 52%, before the accounts of the 1st quarter only 30 %); 29% say Hold while only 5% say Sell. The average target price is € 12.71.

In 2021 the balance on the Unicredit Stock Exchange is + 49.7%, among the best of all the Ftse Mib.

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