Original title: Unpredictable demand outlook, international oil prices fell for five consecutive days
Affected by factors such as increasing investor concerns about the demand outlook, international oil prices fell for the fifth consecutive trading day on the 18th.
Due to the unexpected rise in US gasoline inventories last week, international oil prices dropped significantly on the 18th. As of the close of the 18th, the price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $1.13 to close at $65.46 per barrel, a decrease of 1.70%; the price of London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in October fell by $0.80 , Closed at 68.23 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 1.16%.
Data released by the US Energy Information Administration on the 18th showed that last week, US commercial crude oil inventories were 435.5 million barrels, a month-on-month decrease of 3.2 million barrels. In the same period, motor gasoline inventories increased by 700,000 barrels from the previous month.
The data also showed that the average daily crude oil processing capacity of US refineries was 16 million barrels last week, a decrease of 191,000 barrels from the previous month; the average operating rate of refineries last week was 92.2%, which was higher than the previous week’s 91.8%; the US daily average last week The net import volume of crude oil was 2.919 million barrels, a significant drop of 813,000 barrels from the previous month.
In addition, the significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar also put pressure on crude oil prices denominated in U.S. dollars. Due to the recovery of market risk aversion and other factors, the US dollar index has risen for three consecutive trading days this week, rising by 0.02% on the 18th, and closing at 93.1396 in the end of the foreign exchange market.
Fuad Razakazada, a market analyst at the online multi-asset trading brokerage, Zhihui Group, said that during the rising oil price, the market was too optimistic that demand would return to normal. Now investors realize that demand is actually somewhat weak.
Recently, the rebound of the epidemic in countries such as Japan and New Zealand has continued to suppress market sentiment, causing investors to worry that the outlook for crude oil demand will be adversely affected. Japan’s new confirmed cases of new crowns in a single day hit a record high on the 18th. The Japanese government recently decided to add seven prefectures to a state of emergency for epidemic prevention, and the state of emergency in some areas will also be extended. On the 17th, New Zealand reappeared a local case for the first time in six months, and the country implemented the most stringent epidemic prevention and response measures.
Manihi Raja, chief financial officer of the U.S. Willandra Energy Corporation, said that the delta strain of the new crown virus and other emerging variants of the new crown virus are the most concerned things in the mind of every trader. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partner countries’ increased crude oil production is putting pressure on supply, while the recovery in demand has slowed. U.S. crude oil production is also on the rise, and it has now risen by 300,000 barrels per day from the beginning of the year.
Despite the uncertainty in the demand outlook, some analysts believe that the shortage of crude oil supply will continue until the end of this year.
Analysts of the US market research publication “7 Point Market Report” said that although concerns about the Delta strain have put pressure on oil demand expectations, the global oil supply shortage is expected to continue until the end of the year. Due to more economic recovery uncertainties, the risk of a downward breakthrough in oil prices is accumulating. New York oil prices are expected to fluctuate more sideways between US$66 and US$75 per barrel.
The Goldman Sachs Group released a report on the 16th that the impact of the Delta virus strain on oil prices is still transitional, and structural inadequate investment in oil demand is becoming increasingly clear. It is expected that the shortage of supply will continue until the end of the year.
American Price Futures Group senior market analyst Phil Flynn said on the 17th that although oil prices are falling, they are in a consolidation phase and are likely to rise in a few months. The output of OPEC and its partner countries is not expected to have additional growth, the market supply will be in a relatively tight state, and oil prices will not fall sharply.
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