(Original title: Central Conference: Enhancement of commodity reserves and adjustment capabilities! Pork purchasing and storage will start again! The U.S. Gulf of Mexico shut down 94.6% of crude oil production, and oil prices closed slightly)
Important domestic news:
The 21st meeting of the Central Committee for Comprehensively Deepening Reforms held on August 30 reviewed and approved the “Several Opinions on Reforming and Improving Systems and Mechanisms to Strengthen Strategy and Safety Management of Emergency Material Reserves.” The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to accelerate the improvement of a unified strategy and emergency material reserve system, improve the strategic reserve market adjustment mechanism, enhance the bulk commodity reserve and adjustment capabilities, and better exert the stable market function of the strategic reserve.
According to the National Development and Reform Commission, the price of live pigs has been operating at a low level recently, and the price of pigs and grains is between 5:1 and 6:1, which is in the second warning range of excessive decline. The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Commerce will work with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the State Administration of Market Supervision and other relevant departments to re-launch the central pork reserve purchasing and storage work during the year, and will supervise and guide all localities to increase their work and promptly carry out local pork reserve purchasing and storage work. The linkage formed a “supporting market” force to effectively ensure the stable operation of the live pig market. At present, the price level of live pigs is generally low. It is recommended that relevant slaughter companies and meat food processing companies seize favorable opportunities to replenish inventory in a timely manner; it is recommended that farms (households) make reasonable production and operation decisions to maintain pig production capacity at a reasonable level.
The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association held a video conference for key electrolytic aluminum enterprises on the afternoon of August 30, and reached the following three points of consensus: First, resolutely implement the requirements of the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee on July 30, and do a good job in ensuring the supply of bulk commodities and stabilizing prices. Malicious speculation and irrational aluminum prices have risen sharply. Second, the third quarter has entered the traditional off-season for consumption. Demand in key areas such as construction, transportation, and electricity has generally stabilized, and there has been no obvious shortage of market supply and demand. Enterprises will continue to ensure supply and stabilize market expectations. Third, although production factors and environmental protection costs have increased, companies will strive to cope with rising costs through measures such as improving resource and energy utilization and strengthening production management efficiency.
Ma Huilai, director of the China Field Epidemiology Training Program of the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said that the new crown pneumonia epidemic that occurred in the South China Seafood Market in Wuhan in 2020 may introduce the virus from cold chain products. “Comprehensive evidence from multiple traceability investigations has confirmed that the virus was imported into my country through the cold chain from other countries or regions outside the country.”
In the early morning of August 31, domestic futures night trading closed mixed. The performance of energy and chemical products was divided. PVC rose by 1.08%, asphalt rose by 0.45%, soda ash rose by 0.3%, and glass fell by 1.53%. The black series rose and fell mixed, hot rolled coil rose 1.33%, thermal coal rose 1.05%, rebar rose 1.04%, iron ore fell 1.23%, coking coal fell 0.84%, and coke rose 0.72%. Most agricultural products fell. Rapeseed meal fell 1.55%, soybeans fell 1.08%, palm oil fell 0.99%, cotton yarn fell 0.97%, and soybean oil fell 0.86%.
International news:
The Fed Meister stated that there are upside risks to inflation and the Fed must maintain a high degree of coordination in this regard. After the Fed starts to reduce asset purchases, monetary policy will remain loose, and the inflation standard for interest rate hikes has not yet been reached. The Fed should begin to reduce the scale of bond purchases this year and complete bond purchases in the middle of next year.
U.S. Democrats OCASIO-CORTEZ and Tlaib urged Biden to reconsider the candidates for the Fed. They said that Powell has done little to mitigate the risks of climate change to the financial system, and that Powell has weakened the reform of big banks.
The commander of the U.S. Central Command stated that the U.S. ambassador left Afghanistan on the last C-17 transport plane. The U.S. military has completed its withdrawal from Afghanistan, the military operations phase in Afghanistan has ended, and it is now entering the diplomatic phase.
The Mexican National Petroleum Company said that 125 oil wells have resumed production; the company’s E-KU-A2 platform has resumed oil production of 421,000 barrels per day.
The US Bureau of Security and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) stated that the Gulf of Mexico region shut down 94.6% of crude oil production (or 1.72 million barrels per day) and 93.57% of natural gas production (or 2087 million cubic feet per day).
In the early morning of August 31, WTI October crude oil futures closed up 0.47 US dollars per barrel, or 0.68%, to 69.21 US dollars per barrel. Brent October crude oil futures closed up 0.71 US dollars per barrel, or 0.97%, to 73.41 US dollars per barrel.
Meeting of the Central Deep Reform Commission: Enhance the capacity of bulk commodity reserves and adjustments, and strictly control the entry gates of the “two highs” projects
According to Xinhua News Agency, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, President of the State, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Director of the Central Comprehensive Deepening Reform Commission presided over the 21st meeting of the Central Comprehensive Deepening Reform Commission on the afternoon of August 30. Opinions on Further Promoting the Implementation of Fair Competition Policy by Monopoly, Opinions on Reforming and Improving Institutions and Mechanisms to Strengthen Strategy and Emergency Material Reserve Safety Management, Opinions on Deepening Pollution Prevention and Control, and Opinions on Making Statistical Supervision Functions More Effective Opinions on the Role.
When presided over the meeting, Xi Jinping emphasized that strengthening anti-monopoly and deepening the implementation of fair competition policies are the inherent requirements for improving the socialist market economic system. It is necessary to proceed from the strategic height of building a new development pattern, promoting high-quality development, and promoting common prosperity, promote the formation of a fair and competitive market environment, create a broad development space for various market players, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, and better protect consumer rights and interests. National reserves are an important material basis for national governance. It is necessary to strengthen the safety management of strategic and emergency material reserves from the institutional and mechanism level, strengthen strategic guarantees, macro-control, and respond to urgent needs, and enhance the ability to prevent and resist major risks. We must consolidate the results of pollution prevention and control, adhere to precise pollution control, scientific pollution control, and pollution control in accordance with the law, fight the battle of blue sky, clear water, and pure land with higher standards, promote high-quality development with high-level protection, create high-quality life, and strive to build A beautiful China where man and nature coexist in harmony. It is necessary to strengthen the function of statistical supervision, improve the quality of statistical data, and accelerate the construction of a systematic, collaborative, efficient, and restrictive statistical supervision system.
The meeting pointed out that since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, we have strengthened the top-level design of the national reserve, deepened the reform of the reserve management system and mechanism, implemented centralized and unified management of the central government reserve, and accelerated the construction of a nationwide material storage and dispatch infrastructure network, the national reserve foundation and The strength has been continuously strengthened, and it has played an important role in preventing and resolving major risks and effectively responding to the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
The meeting emphasized that my country is a big country and must have national reserve strength and emergency response capabilities that are consistent with the status of a big country. It is necessary to coordinately solve the problems of “what to store”, “who will store”, and “how to store”, systematically plan and scientifically optimize the categories, scale, and structure of reserves, and accelerate the replenishment of key categories of materials. It is necessary to accelerate the improvement of a unified strategy and emergency material reserve system, adhere to the government’s leadership, social joint construction, and diversified complementarity, improve the central and local, physical and production capacity, government and enterprise reserves, and optimize the protection of important assets and regional distribution. , Implement reserve responsibilities by classification and level, improve the reserve model, and innovate the reserve management mechanism. It is necessary to improve the adjustment mechanism of the strategic reserve market, strengthen the reserve and adjustment capabilities of bulk commodities, and better exert the stable market function of the strategic reserve. It is necessary to intensify the supervision of national reserves, and give full play to the combined forces of professional supervision, industry supervision, and territorial supervision.
The meeting pointed out that in recent years, our measures to promote pollution prevention and control have been practical, powerful, and effective as never before. During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, my country’s ecological civilization construction has entered a critical period where carbon reduction is the key strategic direction, pollution reduction and carbon reduction are synergistic, the overall green transformation of economic and social development is promoted, and the quality of the ecological environment is improved from quantitative to qualitative. The contradiction issues involved in prevention and control are deeper, broader, and more demanding.
The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to maintain strength, extend the depth, and broaden the breadth, pay close attention to the key areas and key links of pollution prevention and control, concentrate on solving outstanding ecological and environmental problems around the people, strengthen the coordinated control of multiple pollutants and regional coordinated governance, and coordinate water resources and water resources. Environmental and water ecological management, promote soil pollution control, strengthen solid waste and new pollutant control, completely ban the import of “foreign garbage”, and promote pollution control to achieve new breakthroughs in key areas, important areas, and key indicators. Starting from the integrity of the ecosystem, we must pay more attention to comprehensive governance, system governance, and source governance, and accelerate the establishment of an integrated plan, deployment, promotion, and assessment of pollution reduction and carbon reduction systems. It is necessary to coordinate ecological protection and pollution prevention, strengthen the management and control of ecological environment zoning, promote the protection and restoration of important ecosystems, carry out large-scale land greening operations, and expand environmental capacity while reducing pollutant emissions. It is necessary to accelerate the adjustment of industrial structure, energy structure, transportation structure, and land use structure, strictly control the entry gates of “two highs” projects, promote resource conservation and efficient use, and cultivate new green and low-carbon kinetic energy. It is necessary to deepen the reform of the ecological civilization system, accelerate the construction of a modern environmental governance system, comprehensively strengthen the guarantee of the rule of law, improve environmental economic policies, and improve the funding mechanism. It is necessary to strengthen systematic supervision and supervision of the whole process, never be merciless against acts that damage the ecological environment, and severely punish illegal and criminal acts against the ecological environment. It is necessary to pay attention to implementing measures in accordance with local conditions, classify and implement policies, reflect differentiation, and avoid one size fits all.
The non-ferrous sector is generally strong, and the varieties have fluctuated
Yesterday, the overall non-ferrous metal sector was relatively strong, among which Shanghai Aluminum and Shanghai Nickel rose more prominently. Shanghai Aluminum closed at 21,495 yuan/ton yesterday, up 3.92%, a record high in the past 14 years; Shanghai nickel’s main force returned to a high level, closing at 147,280 yuan/ton on the day, up 3.84%.
In the view of Everbright Futures analyst Zhan Dapeng, the main reason for the overall strength of the non-ferrous sector yesterday was that the LME was closed, and there was less short-selling pressure from external markets. Judging from the recent internal and external price differences, the short selling pressure on external disks is significantly higher than that of domestic ones. However, the fundamental logic of each category in the non-ferrous sector is different, and the rise and fall are also quite different.
Zhan Dapeng said that the leading factors of copper prices are more macroscopic, and it is in the off-season, the trend is obviously weaker than other non-ferrous products. However, after Fed Chairman Powell delivered a dovish speech at the annual meeting of global central banks last week, traders who are bullish on copper have clearly got a respite again. In fact, the Fed continues its active expectation management as always, and while gradually releasing Taper expectations to the market, it can fully resolve the financial risks that Taper may cause.
Zhan Dapeng told a reporter from the Futures Daily that aluminum prices are greatly affected by the supply side, and the implementation and expansion of electricity and production restrictions have restricted domestic aluminum production. The current monthly limit on aluminum production is larger than the third time that the State Reserve has dumped reserves. The market believes that the contradiction of supply shortages cannot be effectively alleviated under high policy pressures. “In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Notice on Improving the Tiered Electricity Price Policy for the Electrolytic Aluminum Industry” last Friday. If strictly implemented, the cost of electrolytic aluminum smelting will generally rise by 2,000-3,000 yuan/ton. This is also the main reason for Shanghai Aluminum’s strong performance yesterday. “He added, but the specific implementation time of the notice is January 1, 2022, and investors are advised to pay close attention to the implementation and implementation of the policy during this period.
The fundamentals of nickel have been in a state of booming supply and demand this year. “The output of downstream stainless steel and nickel sulfate continues to be high, and it is difficult to change the situation of short supply. This means that nickel will continue to be destocked.” Zhan Dapeng believes that as nickel stocks are further depleted, the inventory holding ratio and the stock-to-sales ratio continue to increase. A historical low will strengthen the expectation of nickel prices to rise, and there is even the possibility of soft-squeeze positions. The current nickel spot premiums are showing signs of continuing to increase. Until the structural shortage contradiction is effectively alleviated, nickel prices will continue to rise.
Regarding zinc, he believes that although zinc production is limited due to power cuts, the scale is not large. In his view, the biggest problem in the zinc market is on the demand side. Automobiles and real estate affected by chips continue to be sluggish, affecting downstream consumption and inventory digestion. Therefore, zinc prices have been oscillating with the overall trend of the non-ferrous sector, and oscillating at high levels waiting for demand to improve.
Black varieties continue to rise as a whole
On Monday, the black sector continued to rise as a whole, and the market sentiment was more enthusiastic. Among them, the steel futures prices rebounded from a low level. After a short period of adjustment, the bifocals continued to “hope to rise”. Let it die.” The strongest overall performance was rebar. The market opened on Monday, and the main contract price of Masukura went up, the market trended smoothly, and the Japanese market closed up 4%. There was some lightening in the end of the hot roll, but the daily session still closed above the oscillation range.
Looking specifically at the fundamentals of rebar, in terms of supply, the crude steel output reduction work is running on the original trajectory. Because the production restriction is still being implemented, the steel output remains low and fluctuates within a narrow range. In addition, the reduction of crude steel output during the autumn and winter heating season shows signs of tightening, and it is expected that subsequent crude steel output will fall from the previous month.
Liu Mengmeng, a ferrous metal researcher at the Huishang Futures Research Institute, said that thread demand mainly considers four aspects: first, consumption has been fulfilled in the off-season, and watch demand has got rid of the previous continuous downturn, slowly rebounding from the low, and the market has a certain “golden nine silver ten.” Expected, the expected fulfillment can be observed. Second, although the real estate market data released in July once caused concern about subsequent demand, considering the high absolute value of construction area, downstream demand has not seen a cliff-like decline, real estate demand has a post-position phenomenon, and there may be a rush for construction in the fourth quarter, but It is expected that the stamina for steel demand in the first half of next year will be insufficient. The third is to accelerate the issuance of special bonds to bring imagination to infrastructure. Since the first half of this year, the issuance of special bonds has been significantly slower, leaving a heavier task for the next few months. Therefore, the performance of infrastructure construction in the second half of the year may be better than that of the first half. Fourth, there is a demand for repair after the disk price has broken through the cost of East China’s flat electricity. Under the wide fluctuation, steel still has the value of building long orders on dips. When the apparent steel demand breaks out of the current low-season range, before the arrival of the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” and the maintenance of the production restriction policy, steel prices have continued upward momentum.
Regarding hot coils, Liu Mengmeng told reporters that the current profit of hot coil production is around 1,000 yuan/ton. Although it is in a relatively high position, the output is subject to certain restrictions due to the policy of reducing crude steel production. From the demand side, due to weaker overseas demand and negative effects on domestic manufacturing exports, demand in the second half of the year is not optimistic.
Production restriction is expected to push up the price of “double silicon”
On Monday, the “double silicon” futures price was affected by the expected production restriction in the “Guangxi September 2021 Reduced Production Capacity Enterprise Directory”. The SF2201 contract price reached a new high, closing at 10498 yuan/ton, and the SM2201 contract closed at 8338 yuan/ton. The price difference reached 2160 yuan/ton, which was also a record high.
According to Li Juan, an analyst at Huarong Rongda Futures, after the announcement of the barometer of the completion of the dual control targets for energy consumption in various provinces in the first half of the year, the energy consumption intensity of 9 provinces including Qinghai, Ningxia, and Guangxi rose instead of decreasing, triggering the market to control energy consumption in the second half of the year. Tighter expectations are that Qinghai, Ningxia and Shaanxi are the main ferrosilicon producing areas, and Guangxi and Yunnan are the main producing areas of silicon and manganese. Subsequently, Ningxia first reduced production. On the 23rd, the Shizuishan silico-manganese plant was expected to reduce production by 1142 tons/day. On the 26th, the Zhongwei Ferrosilicon Plant shut down 5 submerged arc furnaces, and the expected reduction of 450 tons/day has been implemented. On the 29th, the Guangxi production area allowed 50% of the production in accordance with the four companies in the table. The planned output of other companies in September was all 0, and the output reduction rate of 87.8% exceeded expectations. Investors should pay close attention to the implementation of policies.
“From the perspective of the’double silicon’ fundamentals, supply and demand are still in a tight balance, and the decrease in supply is temporarily greater than the contraction in demand. Therefore, under the psychological effect of buying up and not buying down, prices continue to rise, and the spot market is even more tense.” Li Juan said.
Specifically, in terms of ferrosilicon, Li Juan believes that under the normal order-based production of enterprises, enterprise inventories are low but steel mills have increased inventory days, and traders are less motivated to obtain goods after the price stands at 9,500 yuan/ton. On the demand side, the Northeast and Guangxi steel mills have introduced production restriction policies. The production reduction of crude steel and stainless steel in the second half of the year is still expected. Export demand is good, but whether export tariffs are adjusted in the later period is worthy of attention. Magnesium production is expected to resume in September, and the high profit of ferrosilicon will continue. Further observation is needed, and we will focus on the changes in the amount of steel in September.
She said that the tightness of silicomanganese supply is slightly less than that of ferrosilicon, but after the recent production cuts in Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia, the supply may be tight. However, with the increase in steel mill inventory days and the delivery inventory close to 130,000 tons, the price center continues to move upward. But the range may be limited. “Recently, the capital game has intensified. Under the expectation of production cuts, there is still room for the current price of’double silicon’ to rise. We can pay attention to the downstream acceptance of the price increase of’double silicon’ and the subtle changes in the supply and demand pattern.” Li Juan reminded that in addition, investment is recommended. The authors rationally look at the completion of the dual energy consumption control in the first half of the year. After all, the alloy started to reduce production in June, and the steel plant only began to reduce production in July. The data on the energy consumption dual control in the third quarter is more convincing.
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