MILANO – Markets are struggling to digest the hawkish words Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell uttered Friday in Jackson Hole. From the symposium of the central banks he made it clear that the fight against inflation is the priority for Washington, even if it involves “pain” for the economy. Because not putting out the price fire would lead to far worse ones in the future.
Morgane Delledonne, Head of Investments in Europe at Global X, commented that “the Fed’s priority is clear: to bring inflation back to 2% even at the cost of slowing the economy. This is a hawkish message. The Fed he sees most of the risks in halting tightening prematurely and is committed to keeping inflation in check “and for that” I expect increases of 75 basis points to continue until that happens. “
According to reports Bloomberg judging by the futures, the opening for the Asian markets is seen to be in sharp decline, with indications for Japan pointing to -2% after the -3.4% recorded by the S & P500 last Friday. The market week will be guided by macroeconomic data to be published, which will provide important indications to both the Fed and the ECB in view of the September meetings and the decisions on rates. Even on the European side, in fact, the continuation of the straits is expected: yesterday Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a French member of the ECB executive committee, said Eurotower’s commitment to take action on inflation is “unconditional”: another “significant” hike in interest rates is a necessary step in September. And the German colleague Isabel Schnabelfrom Jackson Hole, admitted that the risks of recession are
increased but the “central banks must act forcefully” against the price rush. “Even if we enter a recession, we have very little choice but to continue on the path of normalization.”
Precisely in the Eurozone, the publication of the preliminary data of theinflation of August, expected in slight acceleration. Barring a definite downside surprise (unlikely given the recent surge in gas and electricity prices), the figure should consolidate expectations of a 50 basis point rise by the ECB in September, even if some advisors agreed they are expressed for an increase of 75 basis points. In the US, on Friday, we will have the publication of the data on the job market in August. Also in the US, the ISM manufacturing index will be monitored on Tuesday, in light of the worsening recently highlighted by the new orders component. Also on Tuesday, the US consumer confidence index will be released, expected to improve slightly.
On the Asian front, the focus will be on Chinese manufacturing and services SMEs Wednesday in August, after the industry contracted last month. With regard to central banks, we will have the speeches of various Fed and ECB members, with the latter assuming some relevance in light of the inflation data and the approaching meeting of the Institute on 8 September.
On the whole, then, the unknown factor of gas remains in light of Gazprom’s scheduled closure (for three days) of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline starting from 31 August. The market fears that Russia may block supplies after the deadline. The markets had started very badly last week, mainly because they were worried about the energy situation in Europe. All this risks setting the new gas record in Amsterdam again, which jumped over 340 euros per megawatt hour last week. With the pressure on the Italian government to adopt new measures against price rises and the electoral campaign in full swing, attention then from 2 to 4 September at the traditional forum in Cernobbio, on Lake Como.
Here is the Ansa agenda for the economic week
MONDAY 29
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LIBREVILLE – GABON ore 00:15
At the start of the Regional Climate Week organized by the United Nations in Africa, the Ministry of Ecological Transition participates
DENMARK 3.00 pm
Lane (ECB: speech at CEBRA)
CHICAGO ore 20:15
USA: Brainard speech (Fed voting)
TUESDAY 30
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MADRID ore 09:00
Spain: EU harmonized inflation in August ROME – via Cesare Balbo, 16 at 10:00
Istat releases data on industry turnover, as of June 2022 (without briefing)
ROME – via Cesare Balbo, 16 at 11:00
Istat disseminates the data on the turnover of services, for the second quarter of 2022 (without briefing) BRUSSELS 11.00 am
EU: dissemination of data on various confidence indices for August BERLIN 14:00
Germany: EU harmonized inflation in August NEW YORK 2:00 pm
USA: discussion on the Barkin economy (non-voting Fed) NEW YORK at 15:00
USA: S & P / CS house price index y / y in June NEW YORK 4pm
USA: release of data on consumer confidence for August NEW YORK at 17:00
USA: Williams speech on the economy (Fed voting) ALPBACH at 18:00
Holzmann, Stoumaras, Wunsch, Muller (BCE) discorso at Forum di Alpbach
LIBREVILLE – GABON
At the start of the Regional Climate Week organized by the United Nations in Africa, the Ministry of Ecological Transition participates
ROMA
INPS: observatory on income and citizenship pension April 2019 – July 2022
WEDNESDAY 31
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TOKYO ore 01:45
Japan: m / m industrial production data for July BEIJING 03:30 am
China: PMI manufacturing and non-manufacturing in August PARIS 08:45 am
France: EU harmonized inflation data for August BERLIN 09:45 am
Germany: Unemployment rate data released for August
ROME – via Cesare Balbo, 16 at 11:00
Istat releases the provisional estimate of the data on consumer prices, of August 2022
BRUSSELS ore 11:00
EU: dissemination of data on inflation and core inflation for August ROME – via Cesare Balbo, 16 at 12:00
Istat releases data on Producer prices for industry, construction and services for July second quarter 2022
NEW YORK ore 14:00
USA: Mester Economic Speech (Fed voting) NEW YORK 2:15 pm
USA: release of data on changes in ADP private sector employment for August
NEW YORK ore 16:30
USA: EIA data on BRUSSELS crude oil inventories and production
EU: closure of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline for 3-day maintenance
LIBREVILLE – GABON
At the start of the Regional Climate Week organized by the United Nations in Africa, the Ministry of Ecological Transition participates
ROMA
Treasury: auctioned at the end of the month half-yearly Bots for 6 billion ROME
Bank of Italy Statistics: “Monthly Tables of Banks and Financial Institutions: Financing and Funding by Sector and Territory”
THURSDAY 1
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BEIJING 03:45 am
China: Caixin manufacturing PMI for August MADRID 09:15 am
Spain: August manufacturing PMI
ROME 09:45 am
Italy: manufacturing SMEs in August
NEW YORK ore 14:30
USA: New grant requests
NEW YORK ore 16:00
USA: ISM manufacturing for August
LIBREVILLE – GABON
At the start of the Regional Climate Week organized by the United Nations in Africa, the Ministry of Ecological Transition participates
COURMAYEUR: (4 pm), Jardin de l’Ange (via Roma, 88) – begins the 10th stage of the 2022 tour of the “Free to … LIVE” project promoted by Global Thinking Foundation to raise awareness among citizens on gender equality and of cyberviolence. The economist Elsa Fornero, Claudia Segre, president of the Global Thinking Foundation, Franco Massi, general secretary of the Court of Auditors and president of the Valle d’Aosta Regional Control Section of the Court of Auditors will participate.
FRIDAY 2
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BERLIN 08:00
Germany: trade balance (B $) for July BRUSSELS 11.00 am
EU: dissemination of data on producer prices a / y in July NEW YORK at 2.30 pm
USA: average hourly wage data for August NEW YORK at 2.30pm
USA: August unemployment rate data LIBREVILLE – GABON
At the start of the Regional Climate Week organized by the United Nations in Africa, the Ministry of Ecological Transition participates