Expensive energy and war are holding back the growth of industry, but less than expected. The numbers of the Padua-Treviso Industry Conjuncture Survey (Final Q1 2022 – Forecasts for the next six months) conducted by Assindustria Venetocentro in collaboration with the Nord Est Foundation on a sample of 527 manufacturing and service companies in the two provinces are solid numbers. . And the index of confidence, judgments and production expectations of manufacturing companies, which are significantly decreasing, herald repercussions on the effective holding capacity in the next six months.
In estate
In the first quarter of 2022 the industrial production of Padua and Treviso marks a + 9.9% compared to the same period of 2021 (+ 15.4% in the previous quarter, +19.7 the 2021 average), even in a context of strong heterogeneity performance. A result supported by domestic demand (+ 17.5%) and above all by foreign turnover (+ 18.1%), especially in non-EU markets (+ 20.1%). Orders in volume increased between January-March, albeit to a lesser extent (+19.2). The hold is also reflected in employment, which is up by + 2.2%: about half of the companies will hire in the next six months. The increases in gas (+ 676% in April on pre-Covid), energy (+ 364%) and raw materials (for 98.2% of companies), accentuated by the conflict, measure the supply shock that is hitting the economic activity.
The risks
The pressure on company margins worsened, following the limited ability to pass on price increases. Confidence and expectations on production levels and orders and investment conditions, which are significantly decreasing, herald repercussions on the effective resilience of companies in the coming months. “The manufacturing system of Padua and Treviso maintains its growth path in the first quarter, even if its intensity has been reduced – declares Leopoldo Destro, president of Assindustria Venetocentro -, thanks to the surprising adaptability of entrepreneurs and the drag effect of 2021. But the data must be evaluated with caution: the effects of the conflict, other Rises in energy and other commodities and the scarcity of materials are translating into a slowdown in all the main indices, uncertainty and volatility. All this weighs on business costs and investments, heavily erodes margins, to the point that there is a risk of a reduction in the production of many manufacturing companies, one in four at these price levels if the conflict lasts beyond the next 3 months ” .
The prospects
The signs of a worsening «are above all in the downsized dynamics of activity and expectations of companies in the short term – points out Destro – which herald repercussions on the effective holding capacity in the coming months. The priority now is to mitigate the impacts of price increases, to set a ceiling on the price of gas as we have been asking for months on the model of Spain and Portugal. Without however losing sight of the medium-long term objective of an energy policy based on a balanced development of the various technologies and sustainable sources, which reduces our dependence on politically unstable countries such as Russia ”.
And for Federico Zoppas, managing director of Assindustria Venetocentro for the Research Department, “the data for the first quarter – show a dynamic picture but in a new and difficult context, characterized by strong geopolitical risks, inflationary pressures and serious repercussions on businesses and consumption . The factors that hindered production even before the war, such as increases in the prices of raw materials and scarcity of materials, continue to affect, which have been confirmed to be very significant. The industry of Padua and Treviso holds, and does it well, thanks to the ability we have to update machinery, products and presence on the various markets during the race. And now also the supply chains ».