The current risk is that of a slower than expected return to normal. In fact, “the new increase in infections in Europe and in other countries still moves the post-Covid perspective forward”. This was stated by the governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, who spoke today during the conference “The European financial system in a post-Covid perspective”, organized by the European Association for Banking and Financial Law. However, he also underlined how vaccines are an element capable of mitigating downside risks.
The first fact is that, unlike last year, “societies in the advanced world are less vulnerable today thanks to massive vaccination campaigns.” The second is that this pandemic will only emerge globally. The third, no less important, is that “the Italian and European financial systems have faced the pandemic crisis without suffering significant repercussions”. The number one of the Bank of Italy uses pragmatism to describe the current situation. The new variants of the Sars-Cov-2 coronavirus are worrying, but with the weapon of anti-Covid vaccines one can think positive. And contrary to what was feared in March 2020, the shock resulting from the pandemic was relatively completely absorbed by the financial system, unlike the subprime crisis first and the euro area sovereign debt crisis after. This is thanks to a sudden response from monetary institutions, such as the European Central Bank (ECB), EU institutions and national governments. This has created a safety net for the eurozone. Visco remembers some data in this regard. “Between the end of February 2020, at the time of the outbreak of the pandemic, and last September, loans to households grew by 6.2% in the euro area and by 5.2% in Italy; those to businesses increased by 8.1 and 9.2 per cent respectively, ”he stressed. In other words, unlike the latest crises, there has been no credit squeeze.
Istat: consumer confidence falls, stable for businesses
However, gray areas still remain. As in the case of the recovery, which is true for Italy it is more solid than expected, but could be affected by the worsening of the epidemiological situation. “However, uncertainty remains high – the governor reiterated -, reflecting above all a health situation that has returned to be a source of considerable concern in Europe, with consequences that are difficult to anticipate today, even if the short-term indicators continue to be generally favorable. “. It will be important to verify, day after day, the consequences of the fourth wave of infections. The lockdowns currently underway in several European countries could in fact deteriorate part of the recovery so far forecast for 2022.
There was no lack of references to the challenges related to digitization accelerated by the pandemic. A phenomenon that has pushed institutions, businesses and families to a massive use of digital technologies. And which, however, has several risks. «In 2020, serious cyber attacks on the main European banks – the so-called“ significant ”banks, subject to direct supervision by the ECB – increased by 54%, a value in line with that recorded for the Italian ones (significant and not). The accidents generally had limited consequences, also thanks to the safeguards imposed by the regulations, ”said Visco. A theme, that of cyber risks, which will be carefully monitored by Palazzo Koch in the coming years.
Bags, the South African variant triggers sales: -3% in Piazza Affari
sandra riccio
The other chapter to take into consideration, Visco emphasized, is the climate emergency. A phenomenon that must be strongly opposed. “There is no doubt that there is still a long way to go on the ecological transition front, but we cannot hesitate to undertake it decisively,” he explained. From this point of view, there was no lack of reference to the Cop26 in Glasgow. According to Visco, “certainly more could have been done but the results achieved are all in all positive”. We will see in the next few years. What is certain, according to the governor, is that the challenge is crucial for the medium to long term: “The more the European financial system will be able to overcome the challenges posed by technological innovation and the fight against climate change. solid and capable of coping with adverse shocks rather than amplifying them ». And the eurozone will have to adapt, even in terms of its architecture. “In Europe it will be necessary to go back to discussing the Union of the capital market, also considering the risks and opportunities posed by new technologies and the ecological transition”, reiterated Visco, bringing the discussion to the EU level that will have to be in the coming years. A Europe that will have to be greener, more inclusive and more strengthened with shocks, both exogenous and endogenous.