On the day when the long-awaited meeting in Jackson Hole begins and in which the US government announces that it has revised the US GDP figure for the second quarter of the year upwards, Wall Street continues to opt for waiting. The S&P and Nasdaq reported new closing record values yesterday with the former having exceeded the 4,500 point threshold for the first time ever during the intraday highs. A few minutes into the session, the Wall Street benchmark list is stuck, traveling around parity and close to the all-time highs of 4,494 points;
The Dow Jones marks a slight rise to 35,490 points, while the Nasdaq is also barely moved around 15,038 points.
Focus in this regard on the estimates pitted by the managers, strategists and brokers who were consulted by Reuters. In their opinion, after having collected its 50th record since the beginning of the year, the list will end in 2021 around the current levels, and then collect a 5% rise by the end of 2022.
The real market mover of the US stock exchange and global equities will arrive tomorrow, with the speech by Jerome Powell, number one of the Fed. The governor will speak at 4 pm Italian time: the wait is above all for the fate that Powell will reserve for the QE monetary bazooka with which the Fed buys $ 120 billion worth of assets each month. Some analysts, mentioning the renewal of fears for the Covid-19 pandemic, due to the Delta variant, have raised the possibility that tapering, regardless of when it is announced, will take place slowly. And that basically the Fed remains somewhat dovish.
However, will the big announcement on tapering – whatever it be – really happen at this new edition of the Jackson Hole symposium?
Paolo Zanghieri, senior economist at Generali Investments, warns investors about the risk of being disappointed:
“We believe that those who expect a precise communication about the modalities and timing of the tapering on asset purchases may be disappointed,” said Zanghieri, adding that the next FOMC meeting on September 22 will be the most appropriate opportunity to address the tapering issue, given that the new estimates on the economy will be pitted in the meeting.
“Our baseline scenario, assuming the Delta variant remains under control, has a formal announcement in November, followed by implementation in December,” the economist pointed out.
Meanwhile, an indication on tapering, right from Jackson Hole, came from Esther George, president of the Kansas Fed.
His statements were actually hawkish: George said in an interview with Cnbc that, “given the progress we have seen”, the reduction of the purchasing program “is appropriate”.
However, no clarification has come about when tapering should start.
“Looking at the job growth that happened last month and the inflation levels right now, I think the economy doesn’t need that much (monetary) stimulus,” George said. more sooner than later “.
Among the stocks, look at the positive trend of Salesforce, up after reporting better than expected earnings and forward guidance, and Zoom Video, which benefits from the Morgan Stanley note, which provides for an upward margin of + 18%.
Returning to the macro data, the gross domestic product of the United States rose in the second quarter of the year by 6.6%. This was announced by the US Department of Commerce, revising upwards the figure from the + 6.5% initially disclosed. However, analysts had expected a more sustained upgrade, up to + 6.7%. Among the GDP components, keep an eye on consumer spending, revised upwards from the + 11.8% previously communicated to + 11.9%; exports were revised upwards from + 6% to + 6.6%, imports from + 6.7% to + 7.8%, business investments from + 8% to + 9.3%, consumers on durable goods to + 11.3% from + 9.9% of the preliminary figure. Investments in the real estate market, on the other hand, fell by 11.5%, more than the 9.8% decline initially announced.
News also from the labor market, with the American department announcing that, in the week ending August 21, the number of US workers who applied to receive unemployment benefits for the first time, rose by 4,000 units. , at 353,000, worse than the decline to 345,000 estimated by the consensus.
The moving average for the past four weeks stood at 366,500, slowing from the previous week’s 378,000.
The Americans who continue to receive unemployment benefits are 2,862,000, compared to 2,865,000 the previous week.