Zhitong Finance APP learned that Huaxi Securities issued a research report and maintained SAIC Group (600104.SH) “Buy” rating with a target price of 28.79 yuan. It is estimated that the revenue will be 8302/8693/903.8 billion yuan in 2021-23, and the net profit attributable to the parent will be 289/ It is 331.37.9 billion yuan, and EPS is 2.47/2.83/3.24 yuan. On November 4, the stock price corresponds to PE8.4/7.3/6.4 times, corresponding to PB0.8/0.7/0.7 times, and 1.2 times PB in 2021.
event:The company released the October production and sales bulletin: a single monthly output of 572,000 vehicles, which is -5.12% year-on-year and +11.03% month-on-month. The monthly wholesale sales volume was 582,000 units, which was -2.44% year-on-year and 12.86% month-on-month. From January to September, the cumulative production was 4.197 million vehicles, which was +1.38% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales were 4.201 million vehicles, which was -0.21% year-on-year.
The main points of Huaxi Securities are as follows:
Demand growth month-on-month, independent high growth, joint venture improvement
The production and sales increased month-on-month, and the production and sales of independent brands increased significantly. The company’s overall production and sales in October increased by 11.03%/12.86% from the previous month, and the sales volume was 582,000 units, which was higher than the monthly production (572,000 units) of 10,069 units. The demand performed well, and the overall situation showed a good trend of accelerating the recovery from the lack of core disturbance and accelerating the replenishment. ,in:
1) Self-owned brands continue to maintain stable and high growth.SAIC Motor’s sales of passenger vehicles in October amounted to 100 thousand units, +42.09% year-on-year, and +23.45% month-on-month (production 97,000 units, month-on-month only +12.87%). The cumulative sales volume this year was 595,000 units, accumulatively +25.70% year-on-year, maintaining rapid growth. , Mainly because its Roewe RX5, MGZS and other explosive models continue to sell well, with monthly sales exceeding 10,000.
2) The joint venture continued to improve, and the demand increased month-on-month.SAIC Volkswagen sold 120 thousand vehicles in October, -22.58% year-on-year, and +4.01% month-on-month (production only 116,000 vehicles, month-on-month -6.42%). This year’s cumulative sales of 970000 vehicles, cumulative year-on-year sales of -18.20%, were mainly due to the recent lack of cores. And due to the transition of the model structure adjustment during the year, it is expected that with the optimization of the word-of-mouth and continued hot sales of the new generation Tiguan L, Passat and other major models, Volkswagen’s sales will usher in an accelerated increase.
SAIC GM sold 156,000 vehicles in October, -15.39% year-on-year, and +6.43% month-on-month (production only 130 thousand vehicles, month-on-month -0.43%). This year’s cumulative sales of 1.034 million vehicles, cumulative year-on-year -6.65%, were mainly due to the recent shortage of cores. Influence. It is expected that with the increase in production capacity of the new four-cylinder + large joint screen Weilang family, and the continued hot-sale optimization of the luxury smart brand Cadillac, SAIC-GM sales will also accelerate the improvement.
In addition, SAIC-GM-Wuling’s October wholesale sales of 201,000 vehicles was lower than the month’s production (200,000 vehicles) of 657 vehicles, an increase of 33.33% month-on-month, and a rapid growth of 11.73% year-on-year on the basis of a high base. The bank judged that it was mainly The impact of the lack of core is relatively small, and the new Wuling Xingchen SUV went on sale in September, and the sales in October exceeded 10,000 and orders exceeded 25,000.
New energy increases ID.3 month-on-month, explosive models can be expected
New energy continued to sell well, and the ID family performed well: SAIC New Energy Automobile achieved production and sales of 74/77 thousand units in a single month in October, which is +55.55%/58.01% year-on-year. Among them, SAIC’s passenger car sales of 24,000 new energy vehicles, +93.5% month-on-month, and +76.2% year-on-year, achieved high growth. The monthly sales of SAIC Volkswagen New Energy exceeded 127.36 million units, setting a new monthly sales record. The new car ID.3 was launched on October 22 and delivered 1,255 units in just one week. Both have exceeded 5,000 vehicles, showing steady performance.
ID.3 is the top seller of electric vehicles in Europe, with a domestic price of 159,800 to 173,800 yuan. The appearance carries the ID family’s new technology and fashion design language, such as the front face through LED light strip, with the brand logo that can be lit, and IQ.Light matrix headlights on both sides, etc. The power performance is outstanding. It only takes 7.1 seconds to accelerate from 100 kilometers to 100 kilometers, and it is rear-mounted rear-wheel drive, which is more fun to drive.
Investment Advice:The company is facing the force majeure of the industry’s lack of cores, actively deepens its internal strength, comprehensively optimizes its organizational strength and product strength, and accelerates its transformation from the perspective of user operations and experience strategies. The company’s underlying technology is solid and platform capabilities are excellent. With the gradual improvement of chip supply, the company is expected to welcome the new growth cycle of the main + joint venture two-wheel drive, and the return of the leader of passenger cars. The company is currently at a historical bottom of profitability and valuation.
risk warning:The impact of the shortage of cores has intensified; the downside risks of the auto market; the downside risks of joint venture brands; the landing of new electric smart models has fallen short of expectations; overseas expansion has fallen short of expectations.Return to Sohu to see more
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