Home » Who is the future of new energy vehicles, charging or swapping? _ Oriental Fortune Network

Who is the future of new energy vehicles, charging or swapping? _ Oriental Fortune Network

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In recent years, IGuoxin EnergyThe rapid growth of automobile sales has also spawned the accelerated development of the charging and swapping industry.

According to data from the China Automobile Association, in 2021 I willGuoxin EnergyAutomobile sales were 3.52 million, a year-on-year increase of 157.5%. However, the charging pile-based form of energy supplementation still has difficulties such as long charging time, low efficiency, and high requirements for land and power grids, which have become important factors restricting the popularization of new energy vehicles in more scenarios.

In the battery swap mode, the direct replacementBatteryThe way to replenish energy can form an effective complement to the charging mode, and jointly promote the continuous increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles.

It is worth mentioning that the recentNingde eraCut into the tepid power-changing track, which is just a fledgling, but the ambition is not small.

January 18,Ningde eraA wholly-owned subsidiary, Times Electric Service, released the power exchange service brand EVOGO (Lexing Power Exchange), as well as the overall solution for combined power exchange.

Times Electric Service stated that its battery swap business is suitable for 80% of the models developed by pure electric platforms that have already been listed in the world and will be listed in the next three years. The internet.

All Weather Technology believes that,Ningde eraThe entrance of the company marks that the battery swap mode, which was not optimistic before, has won the platform of the industry leader.

So, charging or swapping, who is the future of new energy vehicles?

  CITIC Securitiesconsidered that the charging and swapping modes are in the vehicle andBatteryDifferences in applicability, power grid and land resource requirements, investment intensity, etc., determine that the domestic new energy vehicle energy supplement market will maintain a pattern of charging as the mainstay and battery swap as a supplement in the next five years.

However, driven by capital, OEMs, policies, etc., the application and promotion of the battery swap model in some high-end passenger cars and operational vehicles will be significantly accelerated.

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Competitive comparison of charging and swapping

At present, the battery swap mode is still a non-mainstream energy replenishment method relative to the charging mode. According to the data of China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance (EVCIP), as of the end of 2021, there are 74,700 charging stations in the top 10 provinces in China, and 1,298 in the top 10 provinces in the country.

However, the growth momentum of the battery swap model is not small. In China, Aodong, Bertan,NIOSuch enterprises are the firm promoters of the battery swapping model.

Charging and swapping, which is better?CITIC Securitiesthrough the vehicle end,BatteryIn order to compare the competitiveness of the charging and swapping mode in detail, the terminal, the grid terminal, the land use terminal and the operation terminal are used.

From the perspective of vehicle users, battery swaps achieve differentiated competition by virtue of the energy-replenishing experience and cost advantages in the field of operating vehicles.

  CITIC SecuritiesIt is believed that for ordinary private car owners, there is basically no comprehensive cost (including time cost) advantage in battery replacement, but it can greatly shorten the energy replenishment time and significantly improve the car experience.

From the perspective of cost competitiveness and convenience, the battery swap mode has a comprehensive cost competitive advantage in the fields of operational vehicles and high-end passenger vehicles that pursue efficiency and have a large amount of energy for a single charge.

From the battery side, the charging applicability is wider, and the battery swap ecology is more vertical.

Due to the low standardization of different models,CITIC SecuritiesIt is expected that there will be no scale effect in the short term. At present, the battery swap mode is mainly used in the fields of public transportation and logistics where the battery is relatively unified.

However, it is worth noting that the battery life can be extended by more than 30% compared with the decentralized charging of social vehicles, and it is easier to track and optimize the consistency and safety of the battery pack, which is conducive to the subsequent cascade utilization in energy storage and other fields, and prolongs the battery life. and the value life of the resources in it.

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From the perspective of the power grid, the battery swap mode realizes orderly group charging, which is conducive to reducing costs and increasing efficiency.

  CITIC SecuritiesIt is pointed out that the power exchange mode is more friendly to the power grid, which is conducive to saving investment in the transformation of the distribution network, and the power exchange batteries can be charged in an orderly manner, improving the power utilization rate of the power grid, reducing the pressure of expansion, and reducing the cost of electricity.

From the perspective of land use, swapping electricity is conducive to optimizing the allocation of land resources, and the construction link is easier to promote.

The charging station needs to reserve a large land area for each pile position, and it is difficult to control the occupied time of the parking space by the vehicle. The power station is like a gas station. Except for the queuing time, the vehicle basically does not spend extra time to stay after driving in, which is obviously helpful for the intensive use of land in cities, especially big cities.

From an operational point of view, charging and swapping is still an industry-wide loss, and commercial vehicle swapping is expected to be the first to make a profit.

  CITIC SecuritiesIt is estimated that the average daily effective utilization rate of domestic public charging piles in 2021 is only about 6%, and the charging operation industry as a whole is still in a loss-making stage, but some leading manufacturers are expected to be the first to usher in stable profits.

For the battery swapping mode, the break-even point of the passenger car swapping station corresponds to the utilization rate of about 20%. At present, the utilization rate is more than 10%-15%, which is still far from turning losses, and it is expected to improve steadily in the future; the breakeven point of commercial vehicle swapping stations The point corresponds to a utilization rate of about 10%, and the demand for power exchange of commercial vehicles is clear, and the profit is expected to usher in a faster release.

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The charging mode is the main, and the power exchange grows rapidly

CITICsecuritiesIt is expected that in the next five years, the domestic new energy vehicle energy supplement market will still maintain a pattern of charging as the mainstay and battery swap as a supplement. However, from the perspective of equipment investment demand, it is expected that the power exchange mode will have a 10-fold + growth space in 5 years, which is significantly faster than charging.

This year is the third year that the power exchange has entered the power generation stage. In the short term, considering that the policy has been turned soon and the specific rules have not been issued, the business model and operation model of battery swapping have not been completely straightened out and are still in the exploratory period.

From the perspective of investment efficiency, it is assumed that the investment in the charging mode corresponds to only about 9,000 yuan in energy-replenishing facilities for bicycles, while the average bicycle investment in battery swapping corresponds to about 25,000 yuan. The investment efficiency and downstream applicability of the charging mode are higher than those of the battery swapping mode. basis for wider promotion.

From the perspective of the operating market space, it is estimated that the total market space for domestic power exchange operations in 2025 is expected to reach 60.5 billion yuan, and the charging operation market is about 173 billion yuan.

Overall, CITICsecuritiesIt is expected that the current charging mode will still dominate the new energy vehicle energy supplement market, and the battery replacement mode will quickly become an important component, and the battery replacement equipment will benefit the most.

(Article source: Wall Street News)

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