Home » Why did the Ningde era plummet by hundreds of billions? -Viewpoint · Observation-cnBeta.COM

Why did the Ningde era plummet by hundreds of billions? -Viewpoint · Observation-cnBeta.COM

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Yesterday (December 24) was a dark day for A shares. The three major indexes fell collectively. Among them, the new energy sector fell particularly sharply. CATL, as the “big brother of new energy and lithium batteries” in A shares, fell more than 7%. The market value evaporates over 100 billion a day.

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In fact, this is already the second plunge of the Ningde era this week. On December 20, the Ningde era has set a single-day drop of close to 6.5%. Earlier, on December 6th and 7th, it set a single-day drop of nearly 4.5% for two consecutive days. Since the beginning of December, Ningde Times has fluctuated from a high level all the way, and the stock price has dropped from about 690 yuan on December 3 to today’s 576 yuan. The market value has shrunk by nearly 300 billion in one month. It can be seen that the plunge again on December 24 is not accidental.

At the same time, the Titanium Media Production and Research Department also saw that it was not only the Ningde era that plunged.

Titanium Media Technology Co., Ltd. data shows that the overall decline in the stock prices of new energy concept stocks and lithium battery concept stocks reached 2.38% and 3.40%, respectively, and 78.8% and 88.21% of the stocks fell.

From the perspective of individual stock data, the new energy concept stocks with the highest decline on December 24, such as Almaden, Akcome Technology, Igor, Innova, Zhongtian Technology, etc., all fell by more than 7.25%, of which Almaden’s limit fell .

According to the market value of new energy concept stocks, on December 24, North China Huachuang fell 3.17%, BYD fell 3.57%, Sungrow fell 5.51%, Ganfeng Lithium fell 4.90%, Yiwei Lithium fell 5.83%, Longji shares fell 2.89%, Guoxuan High-tech fell 6.40%, Xinwangda fell 3.44%, and Shanshan shares fell 3.44%.

Among the lithium battery concept stocks, Defang Nano, Longpan Technology, Yongtai Technology, and Tibet City Investment have all fallen more than 9.90% on December 24, of which the share price of Defang Nano plunged 11.90%.

People from all walks of life in the market are analyzing the reasons for the decline. There are two common reasons for consensus: one is that it may be related to the adjustment of public funds. As the new energy sector rose too high in the early stage, it has reached market expectations, and the end of the year and the double festival are coming. , Some of the larger profit-making funds began to withdraw and turn to other sectors such as increased storage and consumption. Second, since CATL entered the “Trillion Club” in June, its stock price has risen rapidly, and its market value is also facing an adjustment period. In addition to the short-term negative news of lithium batteries that day, the adjustment period has started.

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It can be said that the reason for the substantial evaporation of the market value of the Ningde era is that the fund adjustment is on the one hand, and on the other hand, it is also due to the high valuation of the previous period and the need to enter the adjustment period. The bad news about lithium batteries is just an incentive.

CATL has officially entered the trillion-dollar club since June because of its unique market position and core technical capabilities, and the market has become even more enthusiastic. In less than half a year, the market value has increased to RMB 1,600 billion at the beginning of December, and the stock price has risen from RMB 486.5 at the beginning of September to RMB 692 at the beginning of December.

As early as September 22 this year, Titan Media Pro members paid the article “Can CATL maintain a trillion market value by relying on sodium batteries? “, once made a market prediction to investors, “The Ningde era is likely to face high shocks and adjustments in the next few months.” Due to the low base in the same period last year, the half-year performance appears to have a faster growth in net profit. However, in the long run, the growth rate of net profit in the CATL could not maintain the growth rate in the first half of the year. This shows that the bubble was already quite obvious at that time. This logic is behind this year-end plunge.

Regarding the judgment of the future development of the Ningde era, the titanium media technology stock industry research analyzes the development of the new energy automobile industry and the position of the Ningde era in the industry.

From the perspective of industry development space, the future growth rate of the power battery industry depends on the growth rate of the downstream new energy automobile industry. The domestic new energy automobile sales volume has maintained rapid growth since the second half of 2020, and the sales volume reached 321,000 in August 2021. , A year-on-year increase of 193.69%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 18% in August 2021, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 10.79% in the first eight months of 2021. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles will show an accelerated upward trend from 2016 to the end of 2020 The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has risen from 1% to less than 6%, and the penetration rate will reach 10.79% in the first eight months of 2021. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles will still show an accelerated upward trend in the next period of time.

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In fact, data from the China Automobile Association also showed that the domestic new energy vehicle market sold 450,000 vehicles in November, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year, and the market penetration rate was 17.8%, which continued to rise compared with October. Among them, new energy passenger vehicles The market penetration rate is 19.5%. In the first 11 months of this year, the cumulative sales of the new energy vehicle market was 2.99 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.7 times, and the penetration rate was 12.7%. The China Automobile Association predicts that domestic sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 3.4 million vehicles this year.

Therefore, the potential of large new energy vehicles has not changed. However, the market share and industry status of CATL are also increasing.

It will still be the industry leader in the future, but it is not easy to stabilize the market share

Regarding the position of CATL in the power battery industry, CATL has basically accounted for half of the domestic market share since 2019. The domestic installed capacity of CATL in 2021H1 is 25.76GWh, with a market share of 49.1%, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% compared to 2020H1, and the largest domestic market share. The second BYD’s installed capacity is 7.65GWh, with a market share of only 14.6%, which is far from the Ningde era.

According to CATL’s production capacity plan, the capacity plan by 2025 will reach 592GWh, which is four times the capacity of 118GWh in 2020. The world‘s second largest power battery giant LG has a capacity plan of 430GWh in 2025, and Panasonic’s capacity plan in 2025 is 151GWh. According to statistics published by the Titanium Media Industry Analysis Department, other major domestic power battery manufacturers such as BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and Lishen will reach nearly 800GWh in 2025 production capacity. In the future, Ningde will still be the leading domestic power battery leader. But it is still not easy to capture half of the market share.

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Taking into account the company’s future growth, we use the PEG method to analyze the company’s stock price, and we can see that the company’s PE (TTM) has maintained rapid growth since 2020, and it is currently around 135. The company’s net profit in the first three quarters of 2021 The growth rate is 148.36%. If only based on the growth rate of net profit in the first three quarters, PEG is less than 1. The current growth rate of net profit supports the stock price, but considering that the company’s net profit will remain this way in the next three to five years High growth rate is basically very difficult, which means that the market is currently quite optimistic about the company’s valuation, and investors should remain cautious in the long run.

Its strong position in the supply chain may no longer

Regarding the strong selling pressure on the lithium battery sector, industry analysts believe that:

On the one hand, the technology and production capacity of CATL’s competitors are continuing to rise. On the other hand, downstream OEMs have begun to cooperate with more power battery factories to ensure battery supply. The market has a strong position on CATL’s ability to maintain a strong position in the industry chain. Feeling worried.

In addition, a big negative incentive for the lithium battery sector to encounter strong selling pressure is the implementation of the construction plan for the first large-scale mass production line of sodium-ion batteries. On December 23, Zhongke Haina and Three Gorges Energy, Three Gorges Capital and the People’s Government of Fuyang City in Anhui Province reached a cooperation to jointly build the world’s first large-scale production line of sodium-ion batteries with a capacity of 1GWh. The project will be held in 2022. It was officially put into production in 2016.

The Ningde era’s strong position in the industrial chain has continued for quite some time. It entered the “Trillion Club” in June this year and has not stopped since.

Due to its stronger bargaining power than other battery companies in the industry chain, the relative “arrogance” attitude of the Ningde era has always been controversial. Dependence. Car companies have also invested in power battery companies or built their own battery factories. For example, Volkswagen has invested in Guoxuan High-tech, and Daimler has become a strategic investor in Yiwei Lithium Energy.

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