China Business Daily (by reporter Zhou Ziying/picture)The unboxing order implemented to stabilize the price of Moutai was finally stopped. Market news shows that Kweichow Moutai will take an unboxing order to eliminate products other than Feitian Moutai, and the outside world believes that this policy will be extended to Feitian Moutai soon. In fact, the unboxing order not only failed to suppress the increase in the price of Moutai, but also caused the price of boxed Feitian Moutai to continue to “fly to the sky”, and the price gap with bulk Feitian Moutai continued to widen. With the cancellation of the unboxing order, will the price of Moutai fall or rise?
Feitian Moutai in a store in Beijing
Unboxing order was stopped
A few days ago, market news showed that Kweichow Moutai will take an unboxing order to eliminate other liquors other than Feitian Moutai, including boutique Moutai and Moutai zodiac liquor. In response, a reporter from China Business Daily called a person close to Moutai, Kweichow, and the other party said that the news is true, but the specific reason is not clear.
Some Moutai distributors admitted to a reporter from China Business Daily that the unboxing order for products other than Feitian Moutai has indeed been cancelled, and the implementation of the unboxing policy of Feitian Moutai is not so strict. “I can already buy Feitian Moutai in boxes from official Moutai distributors in Guizhou Province.” The above-mentioned channel dealers admitted frankly to a reporter from China Business Daily.
It is understood that at the beginning of this year, in order to control the price of wine, Kweichow Moutai implemented an unboxing order, requiring all Moutai specialty stores and distributors to unbox and sell 80% of Moutai. One month later, the unpacking policy was upgraded, and the unpacking ratio was adjusted from 80% to 100%. In August of this year, the unboxing policy of Moutai was expanded to include boutique Moutai and Moutai, the Chinese zodiac of the Ox.
However, since the implementation of the unboxing policy for nearly 300 days, the price of Moutai has not been reduced, but has promoted the price of boxed Feitian Moutai, and the price gap with bulk Feitian Moutai has continued to widen. A reporter from China Business Daily visited many tobacco hotels in Beijing and found that in September this year, the price of Feitian Moutai in bulk was around 3,300 yuan per bottle, while the price of Feitian Moutai in boxes was as high as 3,800 yuan per bottle, and even exceeded 4,000 yuan per bottle. . At the beginning of this year, the price of Feitian Moutai was only around 3,000 yuan per bottle.
Liu Xiaowei, a liquor analyst at Rongze Consulting, told a reporter from China Business Daily that after nearly 300 days of operation, the Kweichow Moutai unboxing order ended in failure. The original intention of this policy is to increase the market liquidity of Moutai by promoting unboxing sales, and to stabilize the price of wine. But the result has instead promoted the scarcity of the original box Feitian Moutai. “The policy of invalid market inspection should be cancelled. It is expected that the company’s cancellation of the unboxing order will soon be extended to Feitian Moutai products.”
Will Moutai reduce its price or increase its price?
What impact will the suspension of the unboxing order have on the subsequent price trend of Moutai? Liu Xiaowei believes that when Feitian Moutai’s unboxing order is also cancelled, the price increase logic of boxed Feitian Moutai will no longer exist, and a price correction will inevitably occur. The price of bulk Feitian Moutai is more related to factors such as low and peak sales seasons and Moutai sales quotas, and is not greatly affected by this policy adjustment.
However, Zhang Haoran, secretary-general of the Shimaijia Liquor Industry Research Institute, told a reporter from China Business Daily that the cancellation of the unboxing order has increased the market’s expectations for the price increase of Moutai. “At present, the price of the original box Feitian Moutai ranges from 3600 yuan/bottle to 3800 yuan/bottle, and the bulk Feitian Moutai price is around 3,000 yuan/bottle. After the unboxing order is cancelled, the price of Feitian Moutai will be 3300 yuan/bottle. The market expectation around the bottle is equivalent to increasing the price of bulk Feitian Moutai.”
Liquor industry analyst Jin Yufeng told the China Business Daily reporter that Kweichow Moutai’s cancellation of the unboxing order is a prelude to raising the ex-factory price of Feitian Moutai. “The current liquor industry is in a period of structural recovery, led by Moutai and Wuliangye, leading the volume and price of high-end liquors to rise. Four years is almost a cycle. The current ex-factory price of Feitian Moutai is 969 yuan/bottle determined by the company in January 2018. According to this calculation, Feitian Moutai will increase its ex-factory price at the beginning of next year.”
Jin Yufeng believes that the company’s cancellation of the unboxing order may be to clean up the market before Feitian Moutai increases its ex-factory price, and try to unify the market price of Feitian Moutai, so that the bulk Feitian Moutai on the market can be digested as much as possible.
An insider engaged in the Moutai business told a reporter from China Business Daily that the abolition of the unboxing order has little effect on the price of Feitian Moutai in the short term. But in the long run, its price still maintains the logic of rising. On the one hand, a series of policies formulated by Kweichow Moutai are almost always accompanied by the rising price of Feitian Moutai. On the other hand, after the country implements the double reduction policy, a large number of training institutions have been closed. It is estimated that a large amount of funds will enter various speculation markets, including the liquor speculation market. The liquor collection market space will be further expanded, which is good for the price of Feitian Moutai. .Return to Sohu to see more
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