in casecurrencyPolicy expectations are tightening, so the market style is likely to change from “big and beautiful” to “small and beautiful.” After all, monetary policy will have a psychological impact on market liquidity. Can choose guerrilla warfare and raid warfare.
in the spotlightMidlandChu Yixi’s boots landed,MidlandChu still maintains the federationfundinterest rateThe target range is between zero and 0.25%,MidlandPresident Powell said that the U.S. economy and employment indicators continue to strengthen, but economic growth risks still exist, and the economic recovery is uneven.QualcommThe specific factors of inflation “will be temporary,” and the timing of the adjustment of policy stance is uncertain.
The market is still a little worried, and some institutions have predicted that the Fed will raise interest rates at least twice before the end of 2023. This statement is actually not new. There has been such an expectation since the beginning of this year, but it is only June 2021, and there is still one and a half years before the end of 2023. Anything can happen this year and a half. So, why does the market have to use “rate hike” as a key word to interpret it? This is because the Fed also emphasized expectations management, such as substantially raising the forecast for this year’s inflation rate in the United States to 3.4%.If the inflation rate is always higher than the federal fundsinterest rateSo much is obviously inappropriate, so the expectation of raising interest rates seems very urgent.
However, the Fed has not meant to “turn” at least until now, even if many of them are ambiguous. The United States is currently going to do a lot of infrastructural construction, with trillions of dollars in investment, doesn’t it need money? Definitely needed. Will there be major changes in US monetary policy at this time? In fact, it is difficult. Many Fed officials expect that interest rates will not be adjusted before the end of 2022. Of course, the non-adjustment of interest rate policy does not mean that it will continue to release water. The Fed has many methods, and it may not be the only option to raise interest rates, such as the use of treasury bonds to adjust market liquidity. The Federal Reserve stated that it will continue to increase its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds at a rate of at least US$80 billion per month, and purchase institutional mortgage-backed securities at a rate of no less than US$40 billion per month, until the two goals of full employment and price stability are substantive. progress.
It is worth noting that “at least US$80 billion” still has room for adjustment, and there is no ceiling. In addition, it can also regulate the rise and fall of the dollar to adjust market liquidity. For example, if the dollar is appropriately appreciated, global liquidity can continuously enter the United States.
Therefore, it is completely unnecessary to keep your eyes on the other side of the ocean. People are not in a hurry to say that they want to appreciate, why are we in a hurry? China is likely to go its own way. The management has repeatedly emphasized that the monetary policy will not be “a sharp turn.” For market liquidity, we have many control tools, such as medium-term lending facilities (MLF), such as the flexibility of currency placement. The latest data from the Central Bank showed that the balance of broad money (M2) at the end of May was 227.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year. This data has also fluctuated slightly since the beginning of this year. The M2 growth rate in April was 8.1%, March was 9.4%, February was 10.1%, and January was 9.4%. It can be seen that it is not blindly rising or falling. It is the fluctuation in flexible regulation.In terms of MLF, the central bank carried out 200 billion yuan MLF operations and 10 billion yuan in reverse this week.RepurchaseIn operation, the MLF winning bid rate remained unchanged at 2.95%, and the MLF maturity amount was hedged to achieve equal parity. This is the second consecutive month since mid-May that the central bank has continued to do MLF at equal prices, and it is also the 16th consecutive month since April last year that MLF operating interest rates have remained unchanged, releasing a signal that monetary policy remains neutral.
In fact, the impact of monetary policy on the A-share market is also different. Generally speaking, institutional investors are more sensitive to monetary policy, so everyone sees that this year’s traditional big blue chip “core assets” trend is not ideal, especially the big finance has been in the bottom of the shock. But for active funds in the market, it seems that they don’t care about minor changes in monetary policy at all, but keep an eye on short-term hot spots in the market.
Maintain neutrality in monetary policy andNew crotchDuring the rapid expansion period of the registration system reform, A-shares actually do not have the conditions for the overall bullish. However, the local market is still worth looking forward to, just like the local bull market of big blue-chip “core assets” in the past, but now the market style may change, and the “28th” may be reversed.
Will the style of market investment change? A major reversal is unlikely, but local hot spots may emerge in endlessly. If the monetary policy is expected to tighten, then the market style is likely to change from “big and beautiful” to “small and beautiful.” Growth will become a new factor in determining stock prices, and it will also become the direction of active market capital choices. After all, monetary policy will have a psychological impact on market liquidity. If you have more money, you can fight battles and annihilate wars. If you have less money, you can only choose guerrilla warfare or raid warfare. There is no right or wrong. For the king, just like the third and fourth-tier liquor, many people think it is incredible, but they just have to rise so much.
Finally talk about how to operate?Choose a variety of oversold mistakes, if the technology attributes are high, or the futurethemeSexual opportunities are relatively certain, which is a good target. At present, the trading of many A-shares is very light. After a long period of decline, they are basically far below the densely-traded area. At this time, it is very easy for active funds to make votes, and it is possible to reach the transaction if it rises by 20-30%. In dense areas, this space can make a price difference. In addition, it is not to say that the quality of these long-term decline companies is not good, but the long-term lack of financial care, which is an irrational decline that lacks liquidity care. Many small and medium-sized stocks have good industry attributes and relatively high technology content.PerformanceIt has also grown steadily, but its valuation can fall below 20 times, which is relatively rare in the history of A-shares. The reason is also very simple. In recent years, the rapid expansion of IPOs, especially the rapid increase in the number of newly listed companies after the pilot registration system, coupled with the dividends of the transaction policy, has made active funds choose these new companies for speculation, and large institutional funds have increased again. Heavy troops are stationed in core assets, so the local market has been in a dominant position for a long time.
What are the more certain thematic opportunities in the future? Give everyone some directions for thinking. The first is the products whose performance in the interim report has exceeded expectations, the second is the products with strong growth potential such as aerospace and military industry, and the third is the products with imbalanced market supply and demand such as the semiconductor industry chain. In these directions, there may be local opportunities to affect the stock prices of listed companies, and these sectors do not require large funds to engage in major battles, as long as there are active funds to drive them, it may start a fire.
(Source: Financial Investment News)
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