The fear that the new covid variants could impact economic activities in perspective determines a slight decline in optimism among market operators who, however, remain overall optimistic about the performance of the stock market over the next few months. This is what emerges from the June survey conducted by Assiom Forex among its associates in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore. In fact, the percentage of those expecting new earnings for the stock markets falls from 70% to 64%, gains that for 7% will be very substantial. On the other hand, the sample of those expecting stable markets rises from 17% to 22% and the percentage of those who believe a bearish phase is possible, which for 2% could be very accentuated, goes from 13% to 14%. “Despite the fears related to the new variants and the consequent doubts about the speed of the economic recovery, especially due to the risk that new business interruptions may occur – explains the president of Assiom Forex Massimo Mocio – the operators preferred to overweight the approach of central banks, which do not seem worried by any new increases in commodity prices and, given the conditions of the labor market, remain “on the side of the market” ensuring liquidity and purchases of securities for the necessary time “. Starting from this assumption, fears related to a possible decline in equities due to new outbreaks are offset by the return of purchases on growth or technology stocks, the most rewarded during the pandemic. The picture of the situation therefore still seems to provide incentives for operators who see the stock exchanges growing also for the second half of the year ”.
Exchange rates: 53% of operators see the euro stable, 23% bet on declines
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The euro / dollar ratio, which in recent weeks has seen the common currency interrupt its strengthening trend and fall below 1.20, should remain stable over the next few months. According to 53% of operators, in fact, the cross / euro dollar should remain stable, a scenario expected a month ago by 55% of those who took part in the survey. A further sample of 24% (formerly 25%) expects a new strengthening, while on the opposite front the percentage of those who estimate a weakening of the common currency rises from 20 to 23. “The possibility that the Fed could initiate a monetary tightening before the ECB – explains the president of Assiom Forex Massimo Mocio – involves rather bearish medium-term forecasts on the euro, estimated to be decreasing or stable at current valuations by most of the interviewees”.
Spread: 75% traders see it between 100 and 150 pt in the next few months
The scenario expected by financial market operators as regards the trend of the spread market is substantially stable. According to 75% of operators (from 59% in May), the spread is in fact destined to remain stable in the current range of fluctuation between 100 and 150 points. This morning the spread opened at 107 points. On the other hand, the percentage of those who see the differential fall steadily below 100 points falls from 32% to 22%, while the sample of those who do not exclude a blaze that brings the differential stable above falls to 3% from 9% in a month. share 150 points. “The June data eased the market’s fears about the possibility that inflation in the monetary union may not have peaked yet and therefore the market is starting to believe that the ECB could do something about the stimulus cut. less pressing, thereby supporting the bondholders’ appetite for BTp – explains the president of Assiom Forex Massimo Mocio – Our bonds are perceived to be more risky in phases of monetary tightening, so everything that contributes to averting this scenario ends up supporting them. Considering these factors, operators place the spread in the 100-150 points range. ”.