Coke and coking coal point of view:
Idea: Coking coal rebounded slightly, and futures rebounded slightly. Short-term operations are recommended.
Basis: The profit level of coking enterprises has rebounded, the operating rate continued to increase slightly this week, the production limit of steel plants continued, and the output of molten iron decreased by 12,000 tons to 2.005 million tons on a week-on-week basis. Recently, steel mills have carried out replenishment operations, coke inventories have declined, and market mentality has improved.
Rebar viewpoint:
Idea: Production of low-level rebar prices continue to rebound
Basis: From a macro and policy perspective, Shibor has fallen again, and the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations and the domestic RRR cut expectations coexist. Tangshan limited production continued. From the perspective of supply and demand, although the profit is relatively high, the supply of steel has continued to be sluggish under the influence of the policy, and the demand has entered the off-season, but the off-season is not weak. In terms of steel inventory, the decrease in the warehouse accelerated. The total steel inventory this week was 15.083,700 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 878,500 tons. Among them, the steel mill inventory was 512,400 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 489,500 tons; the social inventory was 9,962,300 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 389,900 tons. We believe that the production of threaded products is limited by policy influences and continues to shrink. The downstream has begun to enter the off-season, but the demand is not weak in the off-season, and has slightly recovered. With the supply and demand picking up and the futures market is still at a discount, there is still a possibility of upward repair for the snails.
PTA view:
Idea: It is recommended to operate more based on the oil price.
Basis: Friday night trading fluctuated upwards. Recently, PTA factories have increased their overhauls, the supply side of the market has contracted significantly, and the pace of social accumulation has slowed; oil prices have rebounded and cost support has recovered. The absolute price of PTA fluctuates with the cost, and domestic macro policies are favorable to expectations. Pay attention to the trend of oil prices.
Beans viewpoint:
Idea: U.S. beans oscillates higher
Basis: CBOT soybean futures closed higher on Friday, supported by signs of recovery in Chinese demand, and doubts about crop weather in South America. The CBOT January soybean futures contract closed up 23 cents, with a settlement price of 12.67-1/4 US dollars per bushel. In contrast, even the meal night trading high adjustment. The long-short game is obvious, holdings increase, but futures prices fluctuate within a narrow range. Although the US soybeans are rising, the strength of oil and fat has hindered the rising trend of continuous meal, and short-term wave operation is appropriate.
Live pig view: the spot is stable and the short order is only profitable
Idea: Operationally, lighten up short positions and stop profit
Basis: Weekend live pig spot is generally stable. According to Zhuyi.com, as of the 5th, the national average price was 17.74 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg. At present, the demand for cured meat in the north has weakened, and the south has maintained it. The overall sentiment of farmers in the market is not high. However, the downstream slaughter end is generally selling white bars, and there is a tendency to shrink the volume and lower the price.
Corn view: slower progress in market differentiation in spot regions
Idea: Operation, wait and see
Basis: On the whole, the spot market in the Northeast production area continues to remain strong, but grassroots purchases and sales are gradually progressing, and the number of listings is expected to increase in the later period. In the medium and long term, the annual output of the market has increased, but the demand has decreased, and the gap has narrowed. It is more likely to maintain a high level and wide fluctuations as a whole.
Sugar viewpoint:
Idea: In operation, it is recommended to trade short and long transactions.
Basis: On Friday, raw sugar rose, but the market is still under the influence of a new variant virus. The 03 contract rose 0.13 cents/lb from the previous day, an increase of 0.7%. 18.5 cents below the short-term deposit support, low prices stimulate buying. Waiting for the new progress of the follow-up epidemic. Yepan Zhengtang fluctuated slightly. The short-term market continues to absorb the impact of the epidemic.
Cotton viewpoint: U.S. cotton closes up slightly, and the negatives are digesting
Idea: Try a short short on the lower edge of the shock interval.
Basis: US cotton rebounded on Friday, but the market is still worried about the new mutant virus. The March contract rose 0.5 cents, or 0.5%. The discovery of the new virus impacted market sentiment, and worries about cotton demand continued. But the low price triggered the textile mills to pay. The weekly export data was better than expected. However, it is expected to be difficult to maintain in the later period due to port congestion. Zheng Mian was running stronger at night.
Text/Yang Yuqian (Public Account Yang Yuqian)Return to Sohu to see more
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