Home » Yellow-feathered chickens crashed and infected “peak period” chicken prices fell below the cost line “poultry” when will the situation improve? |Industry News Provider Finance Associated Press

Yellow-feathered chickens crashed and infected “peak period” chicken prices fell below the cost line “poultry” when will the situation improve? |Industry News Provider Finance Associated Press

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Yellow-feathered chickens crashed and infected “peak period” chicken prices fell below the cost line “poultry” when will the situation improve? |Industry News Provider Finance Associated Press
Yellow-feathered chickens crashed and infected “peak period” chicken prices fell below the cost line “poultry” when will the situation improve? |Industry News

News from the Financial Associated Press on January 7 (Reporter Wang Pingan and Liu Jian)Since October last year, the price of yellow-feather chickens has continued to decline. As of now, the average sales price of yellow-feather chickens has fallen below the cost line, and the breeding side has suffered losses. The winter solstice and New Year’s Day, which should be the peak season for consumption, have not effectively repaired the price of yellow feather chicken.

Reporters from the Financial Associated Press learned from multiple interviews that the price of yellow-feathered chickens has fallen month after month mainly due to weak consumption, and the market is pessimistic about the market outlook. In the short term, rising consumption during the Spring Festival may have a certain boost to chicken prices. In the long run, there may still be room for growth in March this year, but it will be more difficult for the overall high point in 2023 to exceed last year.

Chicken prices have been declining month after month, and profits at the farming side have shrunk. According to the data monitoring of Xinmu.com, as of January 6, the national average price of medium-speed chicken was 6.01 yuan/catties, fast chicken was 5.54 yuan/catties, and native chicken was 7.28 yuan/catties. Compared with the high point of 9.42 yuan/catties in 2022, it has dropped by nearly 4 yuan/catties, which has fallen below the cost line, and the profit of breeding has shrunk severely.

(Chicken price trend chart picture source: Xinmu.com) Why has the price of yellow-feathered chickens declined month after month, and even collapsed? “Since late November last year, the infection of the new crown epidemic has become more serious, resulting in weak consumption in the yellow feather chicken market, and then the price of yellow chickens has fallen across the board, and the profit of breeding has gradually shrunk, leading to losses; secondly, the entire market is not optimistic about the market outlook, and there has been an early bird market. The situation of slaughtering and selling products caused the price of yellow feather chickens to fall again and again, falling to a low level; at the same time, November-December is in the traditional off-season. This has caused prices to fall.” Cheng Jing, a broiler analyst at the Agricultural Products Division of Shanghai Steel Union, told reporters.

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Chen Chunyan, the owner of the Sichuan Boda Yellow Feather Chicken Farm, also confirmed this point of view in an interview with reporters. “Because of the peak infection period in the past month, the flow of people in the market is relatively small, and the business of restaurants is relatively ordinary, which has formed a certain pressure on prices. ; On the other hand, our slaughtering speed is also accelerating, after all, the consumption of yellow feather chickens will be in a vacuum and weak period in the short term after the Spring Festival.”

The continuous month-on-month decline in the price of yellow-feathered chickens has led to a continuous shrinking of breeding profits. According to the public data of several listed companies, the cost of breeding yellow-feather chickens is generally around 6.9 yuan per catty. Compared with the current market sales price of yellow-feather chickens, most farmers have entered a state of loss. “According to the current situation, it is indeed below the cost line, and the cost of feed raw materials this year is more than 1 yuan/catties higher than in previous years, which makes breeding much more difficult.” A related person from a listed yellow feather chicken breeding company told reporters.

It is worth mentioning that yesterday the chicken “Mao” Wen’s shares (300498.SZ) announced the December sales briefing. In December 2022, the company sold 98.1824 million broilers (including chickens, fresh products and cooked food), with a revenue of 2.761 billion The average sales price of RMB and feather chickens was 13.38 yuan/kg, and the month-on-month changes were +3.18%, -11.19%, and -15.42%, respectively, and this is also the three consecutive months of decline in the average sales price of Wen’s broiler chickens.

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In this regard, a relevant person from Wen’s (300498.SZ) said, “Our sales generally follow the market, and the price of yellow-feathered chickens has fallen month after month. At present, it is mainly due to factors on the consumer side.”

When will consumption recover during the peak season of the Spring Festival to support chicken prices? Looking ahead, the Spring Festival is getting closer and closer. Can the price of the yellow-feathered chicken, which is a must on the New Year’s table, pick up under the support of this?

In Cheng Jing’s view, although the current peak infection period has passed, the consumption of yellow chickens is still weak. The supply of live poultry in the southern market is not very good. Most of the yellow chickens that are about 75-90 days old are sold to group meals and small businesses In restaurants, it is difficult to consume group meals, and there are many small and medium-sized restaurants closed down. Most consumers are still not driven by consumption, and chicken source sales are difficult.

Cheng Jing further added, “However, as the Spring Festival is approaching, with the increase in stocking in the market, the price of Ma chicken may have a certain boost. The price of yellow chicken has an upward trend, but the overall driving force is still limited.”

A related person from Wen’s shares told the reporter, “This is more difficult to judge. When chicken prices were at a high point three months ago, no one could have imagined that it would fall to what it is now.”

It should be noted that although the Spring Festival may have a certain boost to the consumption of yellow-feather chickens, due to the losses at the breeding end and the Spring Festival approaching, the speed of slaughtering at the breeding end has accelerated, which may also suppress the price of yellow-feather chickens to a certain extent. “It is still necessary to prevent a large number of chickens from being sold before the year. It may be quite difficult to increase the price of chickens, but there may be a wave of increases in March.” Wang Qidong, an expert in Sichuan yellow-feathered chicken breeding, said.

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Cheng Jing holds the same view on this: “In the short term, yellow chickens will have a positive trend during the Spring Festival, and there is room for an increase in chicken prices. However, due to the sufficient supply of yellow chickens, the overall increase is estimated to be small. It is expected that in March next year There may still be room to rise, but it will be more difficult for the overall high point of next year to exceed this year’s high point.”

It is worth mentioning that due to the decline in feed raw materials such as soybean meal, feed companies in many places recently announced the first wave of price cuts for New Year’s chicken feed, which may restore the profits of yellow feather chickens that have fallen below the breeding cost line.

In this regard, a relevant person from Wen’s shares said: “It is impossible to lose money for a long time in the industry. When the price of chickens falls and someone quits, the entire supply decreases, and the price will naturally rise. In fact, everyone in the industry is fighting for cost control capabilities, so the main It is better to control the cost of breeding, and when the price rises, the profit will naturally recover, and we also have an advantage in that we have more funds.”

(Editor Liu Yan)

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