Home » Zhuo Chuang Information: The stock of laying hens may drop slightly in April or the egg price will continue to rise_Oriental Fortune Network

Zhuo Chuang Information: The stock of laying hens may drop slightly in April or the egg price will continue to rise_Oriental Fortune Network

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Zhuo Chuang Information: The stock of laying hens may drop slightly in April or the egg price will continue to rise_Oriental Fortune Network

As the number of newly laid laying hens slightly exceeds the number of eliminated chickens, the number of laying hens in stock increased slightly in March. It is expected that the stock of laying hens in April will show a downward trend, the supply of eggs is limited, and there is still room for improvement in demand, so egg prices may rise month-on-month.

In March, the stock of laying hens increased slightly and egg prices rose to a high level

according toZhuo Chuang InformationMonitoring data show that in March, the number of laying hens in the country was about 1.188 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.25%, a year-on-year increase of 2.59%, and a decrease of 2.97% from the average value of the past five years. Although the stock has increased slightly, it is still at a low level level; the average monthly price of eggs in the main producing areas was 4.74 yuan/catties, a month-on-month increase of 7.73% and a year-on-year increase of 13.67%, which was higher than the average value of 41.35% in the same period in the past five years. The monthly increase in storage stocks is limited, still below the normal level, the supply of eggs is tight, coupled with the recovery of demand, egg prices have risen to the highest level in the same period.

Since the egg price rose to a high level in the same period in March, and the feed cost per catty fell by 3.69% month-on-month in the month, laying hen farming is still profitable. The enthusiasm of chicken farming units has increased. The age of culled chickens at the end of March was 524 days, which was 1 day later than that at the end of last month. Although the number of culled chickens recovered by 3.78%, it decreased by 13.48% year-on-year, and the number of slaughtered chickens was at a low level. Although the number of new laying hens in March is limited, it is about 3 million more than the number of eliminated chickens, so the stock of laying hens has increased slightly.

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The stock of laying hens will decrease in April

According to the important indicators that affect the stock of laying hens, the amount of replenishment, the amount of slaughter, and the stock base of the previous month, it can be inferred that the theoretical value of the stock of laying hens in April will decrease by about 0.50% month-on-month. Since the stock of laying hens over 450 days old accounted for only 9.58% at the end of March, which was at a relatively low level, the number of laying hens to be cleaned was still limited. Before and after the Dragon Boat Festival, the number of culled chickens may be lower than the theoretical value, and it is expected that the decrease in the stock of laying hens will also be smaller than the theoretical prediction value. It is still necessary to pay close attention to the slaughter situation of the culled chickens and the age of the culled chickens.

To sum up, from the perspective of supply, it is expected that the stock of laying hens in April will decrease by less than 0.5%. Based on the premise of relatively stable demand, it can be preliminarily inferred that egg prices may still rise in April according to the price-stock elasticity coefficient. In theory, the average monthly price of eggs in production areas may increase by about 5% month-on-month. In addition, supported by the holiday effect in April, there is still room for improvement in demand. Therefore, driven by the bullish supply and demand, it is expected that egg prices will continue to rise month-on-month in April.

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(Article source: Xinhua Finance)

Article source: Xinhua Finance

Original title: Zhuo Chuang Information: The stock of laying hens may drop slightly in April or the egg price will continue to rise

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