But in the tug-of-war between China and the United States who really needs to worry? Both of course, but which of the two more? We take it for granted that China is rampant, threatening and intractable (and this is certainly true), while the US appears to be in trouble and perhaps in decline (and this is already much less true), however a map published in the issue of Limes now on newsstands it draws reality in a different way from usual perception. It is titled (significantly) “The strangulation of China”: geopolitics tells us that close to the Chinese borders there is a sanitary cordon of countries (colored in blue) siding with America and eager to receive its help against China, and they are almost all heavyweights or medium-heavyweights of the area: India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Australia, South Korea and Japan, as well as (of course) Taiwan, while only three allies of Beijing are highlighted in red, and not all of them relevant: Pakistan, Nepal and North Korea.
This map published by Limes is titled (significantly) “The strangulation of China”. Only three states that are actually allies of Beijing (Pakistan, Nepal and North Korea) appear, highlighted in red, while almost all the most important countries in the area appear in blue lined up with America: India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Australia, South Korea and Japan, as well as (of course) Taiwan
If we then broaden the view to the rest of the globe, today the United Kingdom would be one of the organically anti-China countries in the context of the Aukus, and Europe as a whole if forced to choose between China and the US, there is no doubt that it would opt for America. And even Russia, which is sometimes (superficially) credited with Chinese sympathies, was actually thrown into Beijing’s arms only by Western hostility and sanctions, and not by a natural vocation, and if it came to a confrontation hard between China and America the Russians would not lift a finger to help the Chinese (why should they do it?). On the other hand, China, although very active economically throughout the planet, is not only unable to project its military power outward like the United States (and not even like France in Africa, for that matter) but it is outclassed by America on the nuclear level (Beijing’s atomic arsenal is comparable to those of Paris and London, not Washington or Moscow).
All right then, nothing to worry about? No, there are problems: China has not respected Hong Kong’s rights, and has managed to do so with impunity, and now it is to be feared that (despite what has been said above) the small and neighboring Taiwan may seem like a another morsel within his reach. China probably miscalculates, but its aggressive move against Taiwan, however unjustified, risky and losing, could have very serious consequences on the Asia-Pacific region and the rest of the globe. The new issue of Limes examines the issue from all angles.
In some ways it could be said that the opposition between America and China is not new. In fact, today an American (undeclared) doctrine of “containment” in an anti-Chinese function is applied to the Asia-Pacific region, comparable to that conceived by George F. Kennan in the 1940s in an anti-Soviet function, but also (already then) anti-Chinese: after all, the wars of Korea and Vietnam were fought by the Americans to contain Mao’s China even more than the USSR itself. Courses and appeals.