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Economic pessimism erases Biden’s gains against Trump in the polls

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Economic pessimism erases Biden’s gains against Trump in the polls

President Joe Biden’s recent surge in polls in key states has mostly faded, as a deep undercurrent of pessimism about the trajectory of the U.S. economy hurts his image among voters.

According to the April Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey, Biden only leads in one of the seven states that will likely determine the outcome of his showdown with Donald Trump, Michigan, with a 2 percentage point lead. Biden is slightly behind the presumptive Republican nominee in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and the distance from him in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina is greater.

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These results are largely a return to the previous state of the presidential race, before a strong State of the Union address appeared to propel Biden in March to his best performance in the monthly poll since it began in October.

The shift comes as respondents offer a bleak short-term view of the economy, the issue they are most concerned about at the polls. Most voters in swing states see the economic situation worsening in the coming months, with fewer than one in five saying they expect inflation and borrowing costs to be lower at the end of the year. Despite the strength of the labor market, only 23% of respondents affirm that the employment rate will improve in the same period.

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Biden remains down in the polls and his support falls even among Hispanics, his most loyal electorate

In the case of the undecided voters —a group crucial to Biden’s efforts to close the gap with Trump— the percentage of those expecting improvements in those economic factors was in the single digits.

“Some of the shine of the State of the Union address has faded,” said Matt Monday, senior director at Morning Consult. “People are really tying Bidenomics and their perception of the economy to the inflation rate.”

More than three-quarters of respondents say the president is responsible for the current performance of the U.S. economy, and nearly half say he is “very responsible.”

The poll has a margin of error of 1 percentage point in all seven states and was conducted April 8-15. While in the field, another inflation report that beat expectations bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to postpone interest rate cuts, suggesting voters won’t see a pullback in borrowing costs anytime soon. term.

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