ROME – From cars to light commercial vehicles, at the latest by 2027 electric vehicles will have a lower price than those with fossil fuel engines, even in the absence of subsidized taxation or purchase incentives. This is stated in a report published by BloombergNef (BNEF) according to which electric cars and vans will be able to cover 100% of sales in the EU by 2035, if European and national legislators introduce the right policies, starting with limits to CO2 emissions more stringent than current ones.
According to the Bnef analysis, commissioned by the European Federation for Transport and the Environment (T&E), the first segment of electric vehicles to become more advantageous than traditional vehicles as early as 2025 will be that of light commercial vehicles. The following year it will then be the turn of electric sedans (segments C and D) and SUVs of all sizes, while the last to reach parity, in six years, will be the smallest cars (segment B). However, Bnef analysts warn that the decrease in production costs and the relative popularity among consumers are closely linked with the increase in production volumes and sales of electric vehicles. Precisely for this reason Transport & Environment underlines the importance of setting intermediate binding targets for 2027, in addition to those already scheduled for 2025 and 2030, to then stop the sale of new internal combustion vehicles in 2035.
“The Bnef study demonstrates how electric vehicles will soon represent a reality within the pockets of all new buyers – explains Veronica Aneris, T&E director for Italy – Within a maximum of 6 years, they will be cheaper than internal combustion engines. Good news for the climate, for consumers and for European industrial leadership ”. In this sense, the example of light vans is significant, a segment in which electric vehicles now represent just 2% of total sales, due to very low emission standards that do not encourage manufacturers to invest in the transition.
According to the Bnef study, on the other hand, electric vans are the ones for which the date on which they will cost less than traditional vans is closest: much depends on the cost of new batteries which should drop by 58% by 2030, compared to 2020 prices Vehicles where the cost of batteries affects the most, such as light vans, will therefore become more cost-effective in less time. Bnef analysts then considered the possibility in which the EU and the member states did not set stricter targets to incentivize the transition and would leave it to the market. In that case, without strong steering policies, electric cars will reach 85% market share and vans only 83% by 2035. Polluting vehicles would continue to be sold longer than necessary and this would prevent the EU to achieve the decarbonisation target set for 2050.
“With the right policies, electric cars and vans can reach 100% of the market by 2035 in Europe – added Veronica Aneris – The Italian government must favor this historic transition, on the one hand by supporting more CO2 reduction targets in Europe. stringent for manufacturers and introducing 2035 as the end-of-sale date for internal combustion engines, on the other hand accelerating the spread of electric vehicles in the Italian fleet. It is time to roll up our sleeves, to deploy an adequate national recharge network and to introduce targeted and coherent fiscal policies ”.
The spotlight is on June, when the European Commission could set a date to stop sales of fossil fuel cars, an event that could give a certain indication of how much the EU is willing to incentivize the electric transition. And there is no lack of pressure as 27 major European companies from various industrial sectors have signed an appeal asking for the phase-out to be set for 2035. Furthermore, a recent survey carried out by YouGov showed that 63% of citizens residing in 15 large European urban centers would be in favor of stopping the sale of thermal motor vehicles after 2030 (the highest peaks in Rome and Milan, with the 77% and 73% in favor). To this must be added that seven automotive manufacturers and ten European states have announced plans to phase out conventional cars.
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