The revival of the textile-fashion-accessory (TMA) was expected. Or at least strongly hoped for: the sector, which in 2019 had close to 100 billion in turnover, in 2020 had lost about 25% of its turnover. The driving force of exports was also expected, in parallel with the reduction of restrictions linked to the pandemic. But a V-shaped recovery like that of the first half of the year is, by all accounts, higher than forecasts and now the entire TMA, thanks to the success of the fashion week and the fairs held in Milan, sees the return to pre-existing levels. Covid ahead of schedule. The geopolitical unknowns remain, of course, also because all the components of the TMA have very high export percentages. Without forgetting that the recovery has brought with it the increase in the prices of raw materials, primarily energy, and logistics costs.
The numbers of Lombard footwear
But the data of the footwear sector in the first half of the year are unequivocal, in particular for Lombardy, where one of the most important Italian districts is located, as shown in the photograph taken by the Confindustria Moda Study Center for Assocalzaturifici. In Lombardy in the first half of 2021, the number of active companies (including shoe factories and parts manufacturers) recorded, according to data from Infocamere-Movimprese, between industry and craftsmanship, the growth of only one unit, but on the export front it is registered a 36% increase in value over the same period of the previous year, between footwear and components (with a + 1.9% on the pre-pandemic levels of January-June 2019).
The top five Lombard export destinations are the United States (+ 53%), France (+ 25.1%), Switzerland (+ 25.2%), China (+ 111.8%) and South Korea (stable, -0.3%, after last year’s double-digit increase) and together they cover almost half of regional exports. As regards the hours of layoffs, in the first half of the year for the Lombard companies in the leather sector, 4 million hours were authorized: + 836% compared to the first half of 2019 + 4.3% on 2020.
Production (+ 13%) and turnover (+ 22%) also increased
The comparison with national data is very useful, only slightly lower than those relating to Lombardy, again according to the elaborations of Confindustria Moda for Assocalzaturifici. The increases are all double-digit on the previous year: both industrial production (+ 13%) and turnover (+ 22%), in addition to the expenditure of Italian families (+ 17.4%), increase and bodes well for exports (+ 31.5% in value, 4.5 percentage points less than the Lombard figure). At present, the president of Assocalzaturifici Siro Badon recalled, the gap with pre-Covid levels still remains. Sales abroad recovered quickly thanks to outsourcing for luxury multinationals: the most important French fashion houses produce almost all footwear in Italy, from Chanel to Louis Vuitton. What is suffering – this applies at a regional and national level – is internal demand: industrial production and turnover remain below the levels of two years ago. “For 7 out of 10 footwear companies, the turnover is even lower,” said Badon.
Consumption by Italian families is also recovering
The outlet markets at national level show the same uneven trends indicated for Lombardy: the flows towards Switzerland recover, China runs (again thanks to the high-end brands), there are notable rebounds for France and the United States. The most comforting signs came, for everyone, from the second quarter: in May and June, household purchases reached 2019 levels and the surge in online sales eased, giving a little oxygen to physical retail, made by large chains, but also small shops.