ROME – An overall growth that could produce an increase in turnover from a minimum of 30% compared to 2019, quantifiable in 588 billion dollars, up to a maximum of 50% (675 billion dollars). For McKinsey this is what could happen to the automotive aftermarket sector by 2030, thanks to the profound transformations that are taking place and that will affect demand in the coming years in the various geographical areas. According to the report, the global automotive aftermarket could grow 3.5% annually through 2030, but with regional variations.
Four changes are likely to have a lasting effect on the sector, leading to a change in demand: electrification, autonomous driving, shared mobility, digitalization. Electrification will reduce demand for six product categories: accessories, chassis (brakes), electric / electronic (E / E) starter batteries, E / E starters and alternators, traditional lubricants and powertrains (internal combustion engine parts , ICE). While it will increase the demand for other chassis components, powertrain (parts for electrified or electric vehicles), thermal parts and tires. Autonomous driving, on the other hand, will make vehicles less customizable and reduce the frequency of accidents. This will result in lower demand for cosmetic accessories and higher demand for E / E components (Advanced Driver Assistance System, ADAS).
Then there is the growth of shared mobility, which implies more standardized electric vehicle (EV) fleets and favors the implementation of autonomous driving in the same fleets. This will mean lower demand for accessories and higher demand for electrical / electronic components (ADAS) and powertrains (parts for electric vehicles). While the digitization of interfaces and channels will trigger price pressure for components where replacement is not urgent. This will drive demand down in more component categories and won’t drive up demand in any category. McKinsey analyzes two different scenarios. The baseline scenario, which sees growth of nearly 50% in the combined aftermarket markets of China, the top four European countries (UK, Germany, France and Italy) and the United States.
In this case, turnover is expected to increase from $ 463 billion in 2019 to $ 675 billion in 2030. This overall growth is the result of the increase in revenues, up to $ 275 billion in the Chinese aftermarket, 293 billion dollars in the US and 108 billion dollars in that of the top four European markets. In the second scenario considered by McKinsey, the increase in current trends (electrification, autonomous driving, shared mobility, digitalization) would reduce the overall size of the car fleet but would increase the share of electric vehicles.
Within this smaller car fleet, the acceleration also translates into a higher share of autonomous and shared vehicles. Together, these changes reduce the value of the aftermarket to $ 588 billion in 2030, still representing a growth of about 30% compared to 2019. However, to seize the opportunities offered by market changes, according to McKinsey aftermarket players they should implement a three-step approach: developing the relationship of trust with customers, because with connectivity the greatest income will come from offers provided during the life cycle of the car and no longer just from the sale of components or maintenance; in-depth analysis of organizational performance and the maximum achievable potential; action and investment planning to prepare for new business models; rigorous implementation of the initiative and acquisition of the value produced.
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