Home » Why does the dollar continue to fall and what happens with the Central Bank’s peso vacuum cleaner?

Why does the dollar continue to fall and what happens with the Central Bank’s peso vacuum cleaner?

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Why does the dollar continue to fall and what happens with the Central Bank’s peso vacuum cleaner?

The falling dollar surprises operators and places the parallel currency again below $1,100. The parallel quotes of the dollar continue to fall sharply and the gap with respect to the official is closing.

Contrary to what was planned for this month Due to the seasonal drop in demand for pesos, the exchange market operates with lower tensions and analysts point mainly to supply due to the lack of pesos and income from exporters.

Las The biggest losses of the wheel were recorded in the Stock Market, where the MEP with GD30 and the CCL with Cedear fell up to 3.3% to be below $1,087 and $1,154, respectively.

In the informal market, the blue dollar fell 2.7% and was traded at $1,055 at the buying peak and $1,075 at the selling peak.

As a consequence, while Javier’s economic team Milei maintains the pace of daily devaluation Regarding the official exchange rate, the exchange gap continues on the downward path and falls below 40%, very far from the 200% it marked in the last days of Alberto Fernández’s government.

Why the dollar is falling and the relationship with the pesos

Salvador Vitelli, analyst at Romano Group, states that the declines in parallel dollars are linked to the lack of pesos in the market after the monetary absorption that the Central Bank is carrying out through its instruments and the strong dollarization of portfolios that has occurred in recent months.

Vitelli points out that the investors (especially retail) are selling dollar positions to cover short-term financial needs.

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Added to this offer is that of exportersthat 20% of what they settle is done through the financial dollar, while demand in the official market remains withheld.

Santiago López Alfaro, holder of the Securities Patent, states that the financial dollar is “expensive” in real historical terms and considers that it should be lower than the $ 1300 it touched three weeks ago.

For this reason, he maintains that it should remain around current levels, until inflation causes it to resume upward variations.

The specialist highlights that, even alternative dollar quotes and gap with respect to the official exchange rate could give a little more, although it is estimated that both variables They should already be close to touching their minimums.

Outlier analysts predict that the gap will remain between 40% and 55% and point out that the lower pressure on the dollar is explained, on the one hand, by the official definitions that they postponed dollarizationthey raised the exchange rate unification for the middle of this year and confirmed the crawling peg of 2% monthly until then.

On the other hand, they add,and made the instruments tied to the CER more attractive beyond March due to the various regulated price increases that are being scheduled starting next month, which suggests a possible acceleration of inflation and drives demand for assets that follow the price index.

Argentine News agency

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