Arcturus: Expert expects peak of new corona wave in April

The new Corona variant XBB.1.16, which first appeared in India, has now also arrived in Germany. In this country, however, it is still very rarely documented. Still, it gives cause for concern. As reported by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) in its weekly Corona report, the subline of the virus, which is much discussed under the name “Arcturus”, has been detected six times in Germany between January 30th and March 12th. However, only a few samples are examined for variants in Germany.

Reports from India in particular have caused a stir in the past few days. “In India, an increasing proportion of this subline was recently observed, parallel to an increase in the Covid 19 incidence there,” writes the RKI. “Arcturus” has been detected in various countries in recent weeks.

‘Arcturus’ will ‘not be a game changer now’

According to virologist Hendrik Streeck, the new variant, which has already been registered in Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria, “will not be a game changer now”. It will not mean that we will have a new pandemic again, but it is one of those waves that may come, maybe stay away, that we simply have to expect in the next few years, according to the expert at “Punkt12”.

Ulf Dittmer, virologist at the University Hospital Essen, says to FOCUS online: “Unfortunately, variants can always arise that escape the immune system even better. It is difficult to imagine whether these are also more infectious, because here the virus had already been greatly optimized over the previous variants.”

This development could lead to waves of infection again, even in summer, since the virus has largely lost its seasonality. However, Dittmer does not believe that Arcturus will lead to many serious illnesses again. “Especially people who have been vaccinated first and are then mildly or moderately ill have a very broad immunity. Not only through antibodies, but also through T-cells and there are a lot of them in Europe.” This combination protected her very well against serious illness and no conceivable variant could completely avoid it.

Expert: Seven-day incidence in Germany is currently between 1000 and 2000

The Saarbrücken pharmacy professor Thorsten Lehr is convinced, however, that the current figures on corona incidence in Germany no longer correctly reflect the infection process. He told the German Press Agency: “Corona’s reporting system is over. But Corona itself is not over.”

Lehr assumes that the actual seven-day incidence in Germany is currently between 1000 and 2000. The RKI last gave the number of reported Covid 19 cases within seven days at around 40 per 100,000 inhabitants. “We still have a lot of infections. They’re harmless, but they exist,” Lehr said. According to his forecast, the current wave will peak in April and then subside. “Not because of any seasonality, I don’t believe in that anymore. But because another round of epidemics is over.”

What comes after that is uncertain, according to Lehr. That always depends on whether there is a new variant and how long the vaccination protection lasts. With around 40 million reported infections since the beginning of the pandemic a good three years ago plus unreported cases, there is “relatively high” immunity nationwide. “More or less the entire population may have had contact with the virus at some point,” says the professor of clinical pharmacy at Saarland University.

XBB.1.16 variant: Three additional mutations in the spike protein

According to the RKI, “Arcturus” is characterized by three additional mutations in the so-called spike protein. The RKI did not comment on a possible influence of these changes on the severity of the disease or the infection. However, experts warn against panic, there is still hardly any reliable data.

“Arcturus” is a subline of the omicron recombinant XBB.1, which is now dominant in Germany. For Germany, the RKI expects the proportion of XBB.1 sublines to continue to rise in the coming weeks. For the subline XBB.1.5, which is currently dominant in Germany, the preliminary data do not indicate an increased severity of the disease.