Home Health “At risk already after a month. All of July in emergency “

“At risk already after a month. All of July in emergency “

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“At risk already after a month.  All of July in emergency “

The infections will increase throughout the month. And who has already had the Covid he must not let his guard down: the Omicron 5 it also bypasses natural immunity. “Who was infected a month ago, almost certainly with a different sub-variant – observes the professor Robert Cauda, infectious disease specialist at the Gemelli Polyclinic in Rome – now he risks infection again ». But there is also better news: it is confirmed that the disease caused by 5 is usually not serious. And this summer blaze could save us a new wave in the fall.

Professor, we are close to 100,000 positive cases a day. Should we be scared?
“We expected this wave in the fall, not now. The spread of these two sub-variants of Omicron, 5 but also 4 which is very similar, has changed the scenario. Note that 5 is ten times more transmissible than the original version of Sars-CoV-2. Worldwide there has been an increase in cases, in one week, of 18 per cent ».
You see, it is to be frightened.
“No. But caution is needed. The 4 and 5 have the characteristic of not giving us a serious illness. We observe much more high respiratory forms with colds, sore throats, malaise, aches, rather than pneumonia. But be careful: even if the virulence of the virus is lower, where you have a high transmission, the number of affected subjects is high. In other words: even a low percentage of severe forms represents a problem on high numbers. We observe them especially in those who are not vaccinated, in those who are fragile, in those with compromised immunity. And they could become a burden on the health system. Fortunately, however, the two curves do not coincide: that of hospitalizations is much lower than that of infections ».
But is it true that the initial version of the Omicron did not affect the lungs, while the 4 and 5 did?
“There is an unpublished study that I know of by a Japanese group. But it only concerns guinea pigs, hamsters. Hypothesize a more serious illness. But clinical experience is telling us something else. And even a recent document of the Swedish ECDC speaks of less serious forms ».
Let’s stay outdoors longer: why isn’t this protecting us like it did in the summers of 2020 and 2021?
“We have always considered summer a free port, but the truce of viruses was the result of chance. In the summer of 2020 we had the effect of the long lockdown. And already in August the outbreaks began. In 2021 there was another element: people had recently been vaccinated, the protection was stronger even from infection “.

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Are those who have already had Covid not protected?
«With the 5 there is a high percentage of reinfections, now we are at 10 percent. Even in fairly quick times there is a risk. Even if you were infected only a month ago. Immunity induced by the third dose confers greater immunity to infection than that resulting from natural infection, according to a recent study. However, it is less than the other variants. In summary: even those who have taken the third dose can become infected, but there are fewer severe forms of the disease. And we don’t know if Omicron’s lower virulence is related to the virus itself or, as I think, it’s due to the vaccine barrier. Which defends us even if many months have passed since the third dose, because it is linked to cellular immunity which lasts longer ».
When will the descent of the new cases begin?
«Let’s look at the experience of Portugal, a country similar to ours in terms of average age and number of vaccinated people. There Omicron 5 came first and the growth lasted about four weeks, hospitalizations doubled, but still remained at manageable numbers. If in Italy it goes the same way, the descent will begin in mid-July, otherwise we will have to wait until the end of the month. After that, I think the strong spread of the Micron 5 coupled with vaccine immunity will save us a strong surge in the fall. This, of course, if new variants do not emerge ».
Will we get vaccinated against Omicron? Is it right to give up the masks? Would it eliminate the isolation for symptomatic positives?
«The vaccines adapted to Omicron are now ready and we will use them in the fall. But those that will protect against all coronaviruses are also being studied, it will take more time, but I am convinced that they will arrive sooner than we think. On the masks I invite everyone, beyond the obligation, to wear the Ffp2 indoors. On isolation: sooner or later it will be eliminated, we will behave as we do for the flu. But it is still too early to do so ».

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