August 24, 2022 ATFX “Ming Tian Guan Hui” | ATFX – vocus

August 24, 2022 ATFX “Ming Tian Guan Hui”

Market risk, the investment need to be cautious! Happy trading!

U.S. dollar falls as economic activity slows, gold and crude oil prices both rebound

【Market Review】

In terms of overnight U.S. data, the U.S. manufacturing and service PMIs both hit new lows in more than two years in August, shrinking for the second consecutive month, and new home sales plummeted to a six-and-a-half-year low. U.S. stocks extended their close lower amid slowing data, though losses slowed.

The dollar index fell from a five-week high after hitting above 109, the euro against the dollar stopped three consecutive losses and recovered from a 20-year low, and the pound recovered some of its losses after the release of PMI data and returned to above 1.18 in late trading.

A drop in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields boosted gold prices, snapping a six-day losing streak, while oil prices jumped nearly 4 percent as sources said it might be premature to announce output cuts at the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on Sept. 5.

【Key Prospects】
Today, except for the United States, data in other regions are light. The United States data focuses on durable goods orders in July. It is expected to follow the slowdown in the manufacturing outlook and may drop from 1.9% to 0.6%. If the data is weaker than expected, the market will be more worried about the economic outlook.

【Important Economic Calendar】
20:30 US July Durable Goods Orders***
22:00 US July Existing Home Contract Sales**
22:30 EIA Crude Oil Inventory Changes Last Week**
Note: * is the degree of importance

【Market Analysis】
EURUSD
1.0013/1.0062 resistance
0.9903/0.9853 support
Yesterday’s data showed that the manufacturing PMI in the euro zone was confirmed to have fallen below the line of prosperity and decline, indicating that the economy was in a downturn, but the euro was still rebounding under the support of the dollar’s fall. Before the moving average in Figure 10, the exchange rate has not yet left the low level.

GBP to USD
1.1890/1.1950 resistance
1.1795/1.1734 support
Britain’s composite PMI fell to its lowest level since February last year in August, and factory output fell for the first time since February last year, but the pound stopped its four-day losing streak with the help of the dollar and recorded its biggest rebound in two weeks. The 4-hour chart rebounded from a low level and returned to the 10 moving average. It is currently finishing at the 20 moving average. If it breaks through, it means there is a chance to test the 1.19 mark.

USD/JPY
137.45/138.27 resistance
135.59/134.76 support
USD/JPY followed the USD’s adjustment from a high level yesterday and stopped for five consecutive gains. However, technically, it still recovered more than half of its losses late yesterday, indicating that the bulls are still defending the 106 mark. rebound.

USD/CNY
6.8757/6.8850 resistance
6.8401/6.8231 support
The USD/RMB exchange rate rose and fell yesterday, with the highest ever hitting above 6.88, but the dollar’s decline and technical resistance prevented the exchange rate from continuing the upward trend of the previous three days. At present, it is organized between the 4-hour moving averages. If it crosses the 10 moving averages again, it can once again look at the recent highs.

USD/CAD
1.3000/1.3060 resistance
1.2936/1.2891 support
The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar suffered its biggest drop in two weeks yesterday, and it had once refreshed the high since July 15, but failed to hold the 1.30 mark. Try to recover some lost ground this morning, but pay attention to the 20 MA in the 4-hour chart around 1.30. If it fails to break through, it may increase the overnight adjustment and point to the 1.29 level.

US Crude Oil Futures (Oct)
95.86/97.50 resistance
92.62/90.57 support
OPEC+ may wait and see for a while to see whether to cut production. Coupled with the unexpected drop in the latest API crude oil inventories in the United States, international oil prices rose overnight and closed at the highest level since August 11. It once touched the resistance level above $94 but did not break through. It is currently consolidating within a narrow range. If you seek a breakthrough, you should first focus on the resistance in the range of 95 to 95.86.

spot gold
1754/1760 Resistance
1740/1730 support
Spot gold stopped its six-day losing streak yesterday. Thanks to the decline in the yield of the US dollar and US bonds, after rebounding by more than US$10, the current top of US$1,750 is still an important resistance, unless the decline in US durable goods orders tonight can bring some support, see Whether it can pull a breakthrough, or it may look down at $1,740 again. Spot silver concerns 19.31/19.59 resistance and 18.75/18.47 support.

US Dow Jones Industrial Average futures US30
33303/33800 resistance
32699/32211 support
U.S. stocks closed lower for the third day in a row overnight. The poor performance of U.S. economic data triggered recession fears. Dow futures hit the lowest level in nearly two weeks. Currently, the 4-hour moving average technically turns into a bearish fork. If the price maintains pressure below the 33,000 mark , then look at the initial support of 32699.

US S&P 500 SPX500
4178/4240 resistance
4098/4035 support
The S&P 500 index fell 0.22% overnight to close at 4,128.73 points, the decline narrowed from the previous two trading days, indicating that the market is waiting to see important guidance later this week, and the current technical focus on the vicinity of the 4100 mark may provide temporary support.

US NASDAQ index NAS100
13114/13338 resistance
12623/12407 support
The Nasdaq index was basically flat at 12,381.30 points late yesterday. It is expected that under the market’s wait-and-see mood, it will temporarily consolidate within a narrow range of the 12,989 to 13,000 mark, unless the US data tonight is more than expected and exhausted, which may lead to further declines. Next support for 12623.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index JP225
28515/28694 resistance
28197/28120 support
After the Nikkei 225 index fell for three consecutive days, it continued to consolidate at a low level in the past two weeks this morning. The surrounding market also brought pressure to the downside. The current 4-hour chart shows that the price is under pressure under the resistance of the 10 moving average. Note that the recent low is at Whether the vicinity of 28300 acts as an initial support.

China A50 Index CHI50
13725/13829 resistance
13493/13388 support
The A50 index rebounded for two consecutive days yesterday, but this morning there was pressure to take back, because the price encountered resistance at 13725 twice, and after failing to break through technically, it turned to the 4-hour moving average for support. If it falls below the 13600 level, you need to pay attention to the recent low or was tested again.

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index HK50
19652/19812 resistance
19405/19279 support
HK50 closed below the low level since May in shock yesterday, and the market sentiment is still biased towards exhaustion, but the 4-hour chart has formed the current key support near 19350, and 19500, where the 10 moving average is on the upside, will be the main resistance at present.

The content is for reference only: there are risks in the market, and investment should be cautious. Happy trading!