They have more and more bombastic names, with increasingly bleak forecasts on the speed of contagion. That new Covid variants were expected this autumn, ready to hit millions of Italians with greater precision, was well known. Again, those mutations seem to be even more frightening. And difficult to counter.
After Centaurus, which at least until today seems to have lost its vigor at the gates of India or a little further on, without major consequences in Europe, others appear on the scene. The names chosen to define its scope are picturesque. We have Gryphon, Minotaur, Chiron, Aeterna, Typhon and Cerberus, the most fearsome. Although Omicron 5 remains the most widespread for now, with 80% -90% of infections in the world.
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“Chain” variants
Covid variants and sub-variants follow one another incessantly. A continuous motion, the one assumed by the virus that has been engaging us for almost three years, which is difficult to keep up with. What it is explains the professor Fausto Baldantihead of the Molecular Virology Laboratory of San Matteo di Pavia: “Let’s go back in time. In the first period, when the virus really changed, it generated the initial jambs: in Lombardy in 2020 it was found in 7 forms, which later are collected in dominants. Those that the WHO has defined Voc (Variants of concern), ie variants that cause concern, based on the fact that they can escape vaccination and are clinically more aggressive “.
How has the virus changed since then? “Each new variant that assumed incremental percentages over time, if genetically different from the previous one, was defined as Voc: first it happened with Alpha (English), then with Beta (first South African), Gamma (Brazilian) and Delta (Indian) , to get to Omicron “.
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Similar in features
But how similar were these mutations to each other? Baldanti always replies: “Up to the Delta they were all alike because they had an impact on the serum of the vaccinated: there was no increase in aggression, so the concern was reduced to the risk of overcoming the immunological barrier”. And then? “At the end of last year, the immunizations with the anti-Covid vaccine were completed and suddenly Omicron emerged, completely different from the previous ones. Because it has numerous mutations and infects more, albeit with mild symptoms. Those we have seen later, from XJ to Omicron 4 and 5, are all sub-variants. We are talking about a recombinant form, a hybrid of two variants or two sub-variants: in this case Omicron 1 and 2. Those we are about to see as well: the virus presents itself under a hybrid guise ” .
“The coronavirus today has a problem: it encounters a population almost entirely vaccinated or cured – continues the expert -. Precisely because of its extraordinary contagiousness, Omicron has immunized many people and finds itself in a very narrow bottleneck. Its hunting spaces. they are reduced. He needs to find a way around our immunity. “
The arrival of Cerberus
The “social” name is Cerberus, the technical one is BQ.1.1. By November this sub-variant could be causing a new wave of Covid. At the moment there are no certainties and the diffusion is still limited, however the “daughter” of Omicron BA.5 is growing rapidly in several countries. In light of its characteristics it is not excluded that in the future it may become a new variant of concern.
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“With more and more data available it is becoming quite clear that Bq.1.1 will lead a wave of variants in Europe and North America before the end of November, he confirmed. Cornelius Roemer, researcher at the Biozentrum of the University of Basel, analyzing the data of the new Covid variants. And, precisely on Cerberus, he focused his attention: “The mutations of this variant have more than doubled every week – he explained -. It took only 19 days to grow 8 times: from 5 sequences to 200 sequences”, recalling as Bq.1.1 “descends from Ba.5 with 3 mutations in the spike protein receptor domain”. For this, according to the scientist, “the booster for Ba.5 is in the best position to protect us”.
Variants with 5 Spike mutations
The USA, in this sense, are a champion to be taken as a reference. He confirms it Eric Topol, American scientist director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California. Which points out: “As the Omicron BA.5 wave continues to drop in the US, more new variants are circulating, sharing an additional 5 Spike mutations,” the hook protein used by Sars-CoV-2 to lock onto the target cell . Variants that, he explains, have a significant growth advantage and a greater “immune escape” ability.
Topol invites us to monitor what in a tweet he defines an “intelligent grouping”, a “soup of variants” that is “quite plausible” could characterize the evolution of the Covid epidemic. “It’s worth looking into,” he recommends, recalling the analysis of colleagues who label this mutant mix “pentagon” and who, they warn, “could lead the next wave.”
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The trend photographed by the WHO
To highlight the current trend, the World Health Organization (WHO) thought in a recent report: the current circulation of Sars-CoV-2, he explained, is “characterized by Omicron sub-lineages and a wide genetic diversification. ; more than 230 descendants have emerged (of the mutant that dominated the Covid scenario in 2022) and more than 30 recombinants “. These variants, he pointed out in the report, “are monitored and evaluated by WHO based on criteria of genetic constellations of mutations, increased prevalence in a geographic area, as well as any evidence of phenotypic changes.”
Seventy versions of the virus in Italy
In Italy, the monitoring of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità observes about seventy different versions of Sars-Cov2. Many have minimal numbers, but in the United States, strains other than Omicron 5 have been growing since August, and now account for 20%.
“This virus has the ability to change and now the large share of those who have been vaccinated forces it to find ways to avoid it – says the professor Fabrizio Pregliasco, medical director of the Galeazzi institute in Milan -. Whether they are uglier or worse is not certain. What do I foresee? An increase in infections at 50 days, therefore at the beginning of November. But not a wave, a more modest trend: if anything, a wave “.